WPAC: INVEST 92W

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 180420 0000 2.7N 160.4E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

Keeping an eye on the tropics:

We are watching a broad tropical disturbance in eastern Micronesia this afternoon. Invest Area 92W remains nearly stationary near Kosrae and will keep scattered to numerous showers over Kosrae through the weekend. Folks in Majuro should expect showers overnight with drier conditions this weekend. Folks on Pohnpei should expect showers and thunderstorms to increase there on Saturday and continuing through the weekend.

For the Marianas: Latest model forecasts pass 92W well south of Guam with little or no significant development and little impact other than increased cloudiness and a few more showers early next week. Regardless, we will keep a close watch on 92W while it remains in the Guam Area of Responsibility.

[euro6208]

The usually aggressive NAVGEM deepens it a bit more and is the only model to develop this.



EURO keeps this weak.

[euro6208]

EURO sees some slight development as it nears the Philippines.

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 180421 0000 5.0N 164.3E WPAC 15 1008



Better defined over the past few hours but shower activity/convection has diminished.

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 180421 0600 5.0N 162.2E WPAC 15 1004

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Fair weather is in place at Chuuk, Pohnpei and Majuro this afternoon.
An active weather pattern remains across much of the region. Visible
satellite imagery shows active deep convection along a near-
equatorial trough south of Chuuk and Pohnpei, showers near a weak
disturbance over Kosrae and an active band of trade wind convergence
north and northeast of Majuro to near the dateline. Showers near
the trough south of Chuuk and Pohnpei will keep to the south while
dry conditions remain in place at Pohnpei through tonight and Chuuk
through Sunday night. The disturbance near Kosrae remains nearly
stationary but is expected to head slowly west the next few days.
A wet pattern will remain over Kosrae a couple more days. Showers
could be heavy at times Sunday and Monday. Models show this
disturbance weakening as it head west with showers gradually
dissipating within an open-wave trough. Will keep a close watch on
this. Expect dry conditions at Majuro through Sunday. Showers will
reach Majuro early in the week as trade-wind convergence increases.

[euro6208]

The eastern portion of a near-equatorial trough will persist south of
Chuuk and Pohnpei near 4N over the next few days. Drier trades north
of this feature should keep fair weather near Chuuk thru Monday and
Pohnpei today. A broad but weak tropical disturbance is quasi-
stationary just northeast of Kosrae near 6N164E. The strongest
converging winds tend to be south and east of the disturbance center.
As this disturbance slowly moves westward over the next few days, it
will spread showery weather to Kosrae by late this evening, Pohnpei
on Monday and Chuuk by Monday night. None of the model guidances are
developing this disturbance down the road. At this point, mainly a
shower producer for these three locations. Farther east, weak ridging
is going to provide partly cloudy skies near Majuro thru tonight.
Then a trade-wind disturbance crossing the Date Line this morning
will pass over the Marshall Islands Monday afternoon thru Tuesday.
Therefore expect periods of showers near Majuro during this time
frame. This second disturbance will likely prolong wetness near
Kosrae, Pohnpei and Chuuk thru midweek.

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 180422 0600 4.7N 158.6E WPAC 15 1004

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://imgur.com/s25vXh1

Maybe one to watch downstream.

[euro6208]

Gone from BT...