#825 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 3:02 pm
I read the little write-up by the CPC for the May 2nd to May 8th time frame. They mentioned the heavy rain, then an enhanced severe weather threat. Of course it is late April/Early May, the heart of severe weather season, which I am guessing is why they put that caveat. However, it was not included in the graphic by CPC, because the SPCs 4-8 day outlook didn't have a graphic highlighting a risk area. I'll take heavy rain over severe. Although heavy rain by itself can be severe.
For Wednesday May 02 - Tuesday May 08: The high wind hazard predicted for the central and southern High Plains region on day 7 (May 1) continues into day 8 (May 2).
As noted in the 3-7 day section, increasingly moist return flow from surface high pressure moving off the Southeast coast is expected to prime the atmosphere across the Central and east-central CONUS for widespread rain and thunderstorm activity from May 2-4. A slight risk of heavy rain is predicted over the Lower Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, May 2-4. A significant subset of this region is covered by a moderate risk of heavy rain for the same period. The broad 3-day event is due primarily to timing differences and inherent uncertainties between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means. Non-hazardous rainfall is expected to extend farther north into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes region. The risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorm activity is likely to be enhanced, especially over the Lower Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, as a result of the expected confluence of various mid-level and surface weather features (such as an approaching 500-hPa trough, a dryline and associated elevated mixed layer, several baroclinic zones, increased wind shear, and increased instability).
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