Texas Spring 2018

[rwfromkansas]

Ready to test my new gutters to the max.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI has now run negative for 9 consecutive days. Longest such streak since February

Code: Select all

15 Apr 2018   1012.52   1008.40   12.47   11.50   5.56
16 Apr 2018   1012.75   1008.70   11.97   10.70   5.50
17 Apr 2018   1012.40   1009.45   4.04   10.40   5.29
18 Apr 2018   1012.37   1009.85   0.94   10.68   5.10
19 Apr 2018   1011.25   1009.20   -2.45   10.88   4.91
20 Apr 2018   1011.55   1009.85   -4.98   10.91   4.68
21 Apr 2018   1011.20   1010.45   -11.83   10.25   4.37
22 Apr 2018   1011.94   1009.95   -2.89   9.35   4.10
23 Apr 2018   1011.91   1009.90   -2.74   8.49   3.79
24 Apr 2018   1010.32   1009.90   -14.21   7.55   3.41
25 Apr 2018   1009.75   1009.50   -15.43   6.57   2.98
26 Apr 2018   1011.42   1009.80   -5.55   6.07   2.72
27 Apr 2018   1012.63   1011.15   -6.56   5.62   2.46

[Cpv17]

12z GFS, I hope you’re wrong! I would like more than one inch of rain for the next two weeks please! Lol

[Haris]

Some fairly massive differences in orientation and timing of storms between euro and gfs . Lots of details to be worked out .

[Cpv17]

Some fairly massive differences in orientation and timing of storms between euro and gfs . Lots of details to be worked out .

This is interesting!

[Haris]

The European has DROUGHT BUSTING rains for WTX and has rains sit for days ! Would be very beneficial ! I’m not too worried in Austin TX folks! I think Central TX is in the perfect spot for this . It has 2 lows basically , one mid week, then weekend! LOCATIONS will change between now and then so you folks in Houston too should NOT worry IMO

[Haris]

The west though

[Cpv17]

Yeah that looks terrible for SE TX lol I expect it to change though. That has me only getting a quarter of an inch.

[Haris]

Shifts in heaviest rain areas will continue as others here have said Main idea: Rainfall thats substantial IS coming. 500mb has some big differences but both solutions would give the state rains so that isnt a uncertainty

[weatherdude1108]

http://i66.tinypic.com/1584fvs.png

The west though

Yeah that looks terrible for SE TX lol I expect it to change though. That has me only getting a quarter of an inch.

Very nice for most of drought-plagued west Texas! They've been hurting, getting skipped by the storms. The panhandle is in the worst shape I think. Amarillo went three months or so without any measurable rain/snow during the Winter, or something to that effect.

That bullseye on the Rio Grande would give Falcon Lake a nice boost downstream.

[weatherdude1108]

CPC has similar graphics on rain coverage. The temps also below normal, continuing the below normal streak from April.

[Haris]

http://i66.tinypic.com/1584fvs.png

The west though

Yeah that looks terrible for SE TX lol I expect it to change though. That has me only getting a quarter of an inch.

You know whats weird? The EPS give you over 2" ! Lotta members give SE TX some decent rains too. It all depends on the H pressure strength. That'll determine the axis of fun

[Cpv17]

Yeah that high pressure to the east of us could come into play. Hopefully it stays far enough away to where everyone gets some good rains.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX is highlighting Thursday and Friday of next week for the potential for stronger rains/storms. Just streamer showers Monday through Wednesday due to capping.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 271922
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 PM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
As an upper level trough comes onshore the West Coast surface
pressures fall in the Plains. Southerly lower level flow develops,
although significant moisture will be slow to return. Cool nights are
expected tonight and Saturday night due to continued lower dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The West Coast trough deepens as it moves east across the Western
States Sunday through the middle of next week. A more significant
moisture return begins on Sunday. Mid level shortwaves lifting to
the northeast out of the trough will be too far north to break the
strong capping inversion in place over our area. Mainly streamer
showers are expected under the cap Monday through Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms may form each day along the dryline across western
Texas and Serranias del Burro over Mexico. Although the steering
flow brings them toward our area, the cap will likely dissipate them
prior to reaching our area. However, cannot rule out isolated storms
making it to mainly the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains during
the late afternoon into evening hours.

The upper level trough approaches with impulses ahead of the trough
moving across our area late next week. The dryline may mix into our
western areas on Thursday and Friday with a cold front moving in on
Friday. These features will weaken or break the cap to allow for
higher chances of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.
There remains a potential for strong to possibly severe storms as the
airmass will become increasingly moist and unstable.

[Haris]

Has anyone's thoughts changed about the upcoming pattern?

[cheezyWXguy]

Although the best forcing looks like it will be to our north, the 00z Euro last night for wed 5/2 is pretty interesting. Around 0z Thu (7pm Wed), it shows severe storms breaking out along the dryline just west of DFW. Instability isnt fantastic, but shear looks pretty good from what I can see. Best dynamics are north of the red river, but capping further south may keep storms more discrete instead of merging into segments like they will further north later in the event. Looks like a low coverage-potentially high intensity event in NTX to me. I wonder what the 12z euro will look like.

[Haris]

12z gfs sucked! Not looking as good as it was a few days ago . Ensembles down too.

[Cpv17]

12z gfs sucked! Not looking as good as it was a few days ago . Ensembles down too.

Like I said in a previous post, I believe we’re gonna have to wait till Monday or Tuesday to know more about what will happen. Right now the models are just toying around with us. Also, would it really be that surprising if nothing much comes out of this? The models have done that several times to us so I’ve learned a long time ago not to get my hopes up anymore.

[Haris]

Euro remains very wet. What a massive split

[Haris]

Eps remain consistent . I guess gfs is an outlier