Chris90 wrote:I went back to the 2017 indicators thread to read through the discussion from the April - Early May period, and at this time last year 2005 was being discussed as a possible analog. The discussion was that members didn't believe 2005 was a good analog intensity wise, but might be a good analog for storm tracks. In my opinion, 2005 didnt end up as a good analog track wise, considering a lot of the ACE that year was generated in the Gulf and W. Caribbean, while last year a lot of the ACE was generated further east.
Concerning 2013 as a possible analog for this year, I think the danger is people will see that and assume 2013 was well below average, so therefore there's good signs that this year might be quiet too. The thing to remember is 2013 was dead due to the thermohaline circulation weakening. The other factors were there for an active season. In fact, I think it was one of CSUs biggest forecast busts in years, if not the biggest bust they've ever had, due to the thermohaline circulation throwing a curveball. A 2013 analog could be a signal for an active season, especially if it was a top analog last year.
The ACE was further East which scientifically and for sake of this topic, that's what matters. However I bet if you ask anybody along the Gulf Coast, 2017 was quite active and destructive. 7 Named Storms affected the Gulf/W Caribbean with 5 crossing the US Gulf Coast in 2017. 2005 saw 7 much stronger storms cross the US Gulf Coast. None crossed the Atlantic coast in 2017 and 1 crossed the Atlantic coast in 2005. Overall and relatively, as far as US Impacts, 2017 could be considered a mini 2005 so predictions might not have been as terrible as one might think.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2017.pnghttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2005.pngAs for this year Neutral years tend to be average and the Pacific is actually possibly headed for El Nino so global patterns may be feeling this soon so I would think on the low side of Average.