Texas Spring 2018

[weatherdude1108]

At this point, I'll be happy with 1-2 inches. Too much too quickly won't do a ton of good.

Me too. 1-3 inches over a week is a nice soaking in the upper soils. It would keep the deeper soils damp to moist.

[Haris]

[Haris]

Cold front should stall over the Austin metro Fri night. As long as we have that 2nd piece of energy, albeit weak, training heavy rains with PWATS near 2" likely like the gfs shows. My rain forecast prelim is 1-2" but could go higher if this trend continues/consistency

[Cpv17]

http://i66.tinypic.com/2rojogn.png

Man that’s a nice soaking from SA up to the ATX. It looks like the axis for heavier rains has shifted a bit east today.

[Haris]

http://i66.tinypic.com/2rojogn.png

Man that’s a nice soaking from SA up to the ATX. It looks like the axis for heavier rains has shifted a bit east today.

Thing is, I dont prefer being in the "bulls eye" 4 days out or so. Hopefully they dont ditch it

[bubba hotep]

Final May Outlook

[Haris]

Final May Outlook

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DcDcWIXWkAMtfiN.jpg

I dont disagree. Much of W-Central TX will be pick up 2-4" of rain later this week and it will rain again this month, so its bound to be above normal. Wonder if we get 2015 again ?? lol

[Cpv17]

Final May Outlook

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DcDcWIXWkAMtfiN.jpg

Even though I’m not in the darker green colors, if that verifies I won’t complain one bit.

[Haris]

Still looks like a 1-3” soaking for Central TX. Could get unsettled again late next week . Let the May come

[Haris]

[weatherdude1108]

We need to enjoy whatever rain we get this week, because it looks like another dry spell is starting Saturday.

May is our wettest month of the year climatologically, or it should be.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
238 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Capping will maintain a solid hold on vertical motion over South
Central Texas through late afternoon Wednesday. Return gulf flow and
weak upglide will maintain mostly cloudy skies and patchy drizzle and
fog...primarily from late evening through mid-morning...when the
low-level jet is strongest/active.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The upper level trough and associated cold front will be on the
doorstep of our area by Thursday morning...and be nearly stationary
or slowly progress east/south through Saturday morning. Capping will
limit convection...but there should be enough general ascent from the
front and trough to reach the LFC, especially over the Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains...where there is a slight risk of
severe storms. The main severe threat will be large hail, with a
secondary threat of damaging winds.

The close proximity of the front and trough, plus confluent flow in
the low and mid levels, will lead to a moist adiabatic profile and
heavy rain threat Thursday night into Friday night. Average rainfall
amounts will range from 1 to 2 inches, but a few spots may receive
up to 4 inches of rain for the three-day event.

The front will push south of the area on Saturday, bringing an end to
rain by midday. Persistent zonal flow from Sunday through most of
next week will bring mostly sunny skies, dry conditions, and near
normal temperatures.

[JDawg512]

18.84in of rain fell here at the Rain Cave in 2015, as much as I love rain, that was a bit much even for my wet standards. Unfortunately I'm getting pretty grumpy about the extended forecast. I hope a wetter than average May occures, however once this rain event is over, next week is back to quiet dry weather. The cap continues and as of this afternoon the NWS is lessening the severe threat which isn't a bad thing as long as we get the rain amounts. The issue is that the cap has been very difficult to erode this year which is inhibiting rainfall. Until the cap weakens or becomes non existent, more of the same is likely with extended dry periods with a decent rain event in between.

[Cpv17]

18.84in of rain fell here at the Rain Cave in 2015, as much as I love rain, that was a bit much even for my wet standards. Unfortunately I'm getting pretty grumpy about the extended forecast. I hope a wetter than average May occures, however once this rain event is over, next week is back to quiet dry weather. The cap continues and as of this afternoon the NWS is lessening the severe threat which isn't a bad thing as long as we get the rain amounts. The issue is that the cap has been very difficult to erode this year which is inhibiting rainfall. Until the cap weakens or becomes non existent, more of the same is likely with extended dry periods with a decent rain event in between.

I think the cooler than average temps this spring have hurt the chances for severe weather along with the frequency of the fronts coming in limiting the amount of moisture and instability for storm systems to work with. Just my two cents.

[JDawg512]

18.84in of rain fell here at the Rain Cave in 2015, as much as I love rain, that was a bit much even for my wet standards. Unfortunately I'm getting pretty grumpy about the extended forecast. I hope a wetter than average May occures, however once this rain event is over, next week is back to quiet dry weather. The cap continues and as of this afternoon the NWS is lessening the severe threat which isn't a bad thing as long as we get the rain amounts. The issue is that the cap has been very difficult to erode this year which is inhibiting rainfall. Until the cap weakens or becomes non existent, more of the same is likely with extended dry periods with a decent rain event in between.

I think the cooler than average temps this spring have hurt the chances for severe weather along with the frequency of the fronts coming in limiting the amount of moisture and instability for storm systems to work with. Just my two cents.

You hit the head on the nail. That has been a major factor so far which has also kept the cap strong. Now that we are in the transitional phase, will see if we can keep more moisture around longer.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It appears the Enhanced threat for Wednesday has moved further North.

[bubba hotep]

Models seem to be coming into pretty good agreement on an axis of heavy rain across DFW oriented from SW to NE. It looks like there will be too much CAP for any storms tomorrow afternoon and the main threat will be with a nocturnal MCS bringing straight line winds. However, as we all know, convective evolution can be tricky and things could change tomorrow.

[cheezyWXguy]

Models seem to be coming into pretty good agreement on an axis of heavy rain across DFW oriented from SW to NE. It looks like there will be too much CAP for any storms tomorrow afternoon and the main threat will be with a nocturnal MCS bringing straight line winds. However, as we all know, convective evolution can be tricky and things could change tomorrow.

Looks more like midday Thursday. The nam has the line bisecting dfw at 17z (noon). If it slows down the timing any more, the severe threat will likely increase, as cape should be on the upswing around that time

[rwfromkansas]

Is the MCS why tomorrow is less of a severe day?

[weatherdude1108]

All I know is I'm tired of these intermittent drizzle/sprinkles we have gotten the past couple days. It occasionally "spits" out light rain showers for about 15 seconds, then back to occasional spitting drizzle/sprinkles.

Does nothing for the poor grass and vegetation. Mixes with the road oils causing slick streets that don't wash out, and spots up your car.lol It was 72 this morning at my house, with 92% humidity. Lots of moisture out there to feed whatever storms decide to fire, otherwise it's wasted moisture.

[Haris]

A hurricane type gradient will set up across the 35 corridor in Central TX! W of 35, 2-4” , E , 1 or less