2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Hey guys,
Could the image below explain why the Atlantic has been cooler than normal for so long? The atmosphere has been in a +NAO state going back to January this year. There are some small dips into - territory but as a whole for the last 4 months or so it has been mostly positive. I learned that +NAO tends to have a stronger Azored High...which causes stronger trades and thus cooler than normal Atlantic SST. Could this also explain why some think we may be switching to a -AMO...but it is actually the +NAO responsible? Any thoughts on this??
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Could the image below explain why the Atlantic has been cooler than normal for so long? The atmosphere has been in a +NAO state going back to January this year. There are some small dips into - territory but as a whole for the last 4 months or so it has been mostly positive. I learned that +NAO tends to have a stronger Azored High...which causes stronger trades and thus cooler than normal Atlantic SST. Could this also explain why some think we may be switching to a -AMO...but it is actually the +NAO responsible? Any thoughts on this??
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
WeatherEmperor wrote:Hey guys,
Could the image below explain why the Atlantic has been cooler than normal for so long? The atmosphere has been in a +NAO state going back to January this year. There are some small dips into - territory but as a whole for the last 4 months or so it has been mostly positive. I learned that +NAO tends to have a stronger Azored High...which causes stronger trades and thus cooler than normal Atlantic SST. Could this also explain why some think we may be switching to a -AMO...but it is actually the +NAO responsible? Any thoughts on this??
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As said before, usually a -AMO era starts with a slowing AMOC, this current -AMO signature is caused mostly by +NAO effects
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
WeatherEmperor wrote:Hey guys,
Could the image below explain why the Atlantic has been cooler than normal for so long?
I'm sure there are more factors to the Atlantic being cool. The eastern US had one of the coldest Aprils on record so I wonder if it is indirectly contributing to the Atlantic?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
galaxy401 wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:Hey guys,
Could the image below explain why the Atlantic has been cooler than normal for so long?
I'm sure there are more factors to the Atlantic being cool. The eastern US had one of the coldest Aprils on record so I wonder if it is indirectly contributing to the Atlantic?
Trades can explain this current cooling, and it fits the current situation. If the cool April were to affect SSTs, it would cool down the subtropics
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
weathaguyry wrote:[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png[img]
I have no idea why this is happening. Trades are faster than normal and we have +NAO/+AO that should keep it cool
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
NotSparta wrote:weathaguyry wrote:[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png[img]
I have no idea why this is happening. Trades are faster than normal and we have +NAO/+AO that should keep it cool
Increasing Sun angle might have something to do with it!
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Dylan wrote:NotSparta wrote:weathaguyry wrote:[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png[img]
I have no idea why this is happening. Trades are faster than normal and we have +NAO/+AO that should keep it cool
Increasing Sun angle might have something to do with it!
Lol, but it's warming faster than normal. Not sure why
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs/analogs_monthly_sst.png
I understand that these WILL change, but man, 1989. A storm like Hugo would be just a cruel joke after last year
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
If this NOAA forecast is accurate then I can see why JB is going to lower his ace numbers.
If this becomes true than the eastern MDR will be pretty dead.
Look at the EPAC, wow it should be very active all season, which generally lowers the Atlantic basin.
In fact, it looks as if it is really going to be active starting this week.
I too would go with lower ACE numbers.
Of concern though is the western Atlantic sub tropics. It seems it is going to stay warm so a developing weak long tracker or in close development is possible.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
OuterBanker wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
If this NOAA forecast is accurate then I can see why JB is going to lower his ace numbers.
If this becomes true than the eastern MDR will be pretty dead.
Look at the EPAC, wow it should be very active all season, which generally lowers the Atlantic basin.
In fact, it looks as if it is really going to be active starting this week.
I too would go with lower ACE numbers.
Of concern though is the western Atlantic sub tropics. It seems it is going to stay warm so a developing weak long tracker or in close development is possible.
It is interesting that the analogs all of the way through August have cold neutral holding with no sign of El Niño. One thing to note though is that the April analogs average is a bit colder in Niño 3.4 than April of 2018. That may be one reason.
Any comments regarding these analogs with regard to ENSO?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
OuterBanker wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
If this NOAA forecast is accurate then I can see why JB is going to lower his ace numbers.
If this becomes true than the eastern MDR will be pretty dead.
Look at the EPAC, wow it should be very active all season, which generally lowers the Atlantic basin.
In fact, it looks as if it is really going to be active starting this week.
I too would go with lower ACE numbers.
Of concern though is the western Atlantic sub tropics. It seems it is going to stay warm so a developing weak long tracker or in close development is possible.
Seems that this year's MDR is a lot warmer than the analogs, I'm not so sure they're the best for that area
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Latest SST anomaly map that came out today. Two things: waters near Hawaii are warming still and the "Atlantic El Nino" with warmer than normal waters near the equator south of Africa continues...
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
What the heck is an Atlantic El Nino, and would it have the same effect on the Atlantic that a "regular" El Nino has on the EPAC (and maybe CPAC too)?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Waters across the main development region should be fine come August. Again the all important as it is every season is what will the steering look like during that time.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
SFLcane wrote:Waters across the main development region should be fine come August. Again the all important as it is every season is what will the steering look like during that time.
"WORD"
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
There is very little study on Atlantic "Nino". It is a much more ill defined thing. There isn't a strong correlation. There are big seasons for Atlantic Nino and Atlantic Nina. 2004/2005 had cold equatorial and African waters while 2016/2017 were warm. But there are also quiet seasons for both as well.
It's not as strong a known signal as per say the AMO/AMOC system
It's not as strong a known signal as per say the AMO/AMOC system
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Hostile conditions are already showing up over the MDR. Note the increased westerly vertical wind shear, thanks to the +PMM:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/993840183861792768
Background forcing is not auspicious for an active Atlantic season, as the development of Aletta (INVEST 90E) may illustrate:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/993636270516658178
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/993840183861792768
Background forcing is not auspicious for an active Atlantic season, as the development of Aletta (INVEST 90E) may illustrate:
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/993636270516658178
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