2018 EPAC Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
@RyanMaue
Nothing showing up on global EPS tropical cyclone probability maps for the North Atlantic [still a month before official start of hurricane season]. However, possible to see some activity in the Eastern Pacific as the waters (SST) are very warm -- 29°C+
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/990977584182808579
Nothing showing up on global EPS tropical cyclone probability maps for the North Atlantic [still a month before official start of hurricane season]. However, possible to see some activity in the Eastern Pacific as the waters (SST) are very warm -- 29°C+
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/990977584182808579
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Is the first time in 2018 that the ECMWF shows something trying to form into a Tropical Depression / Weak Tropical Storm.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Is the first time in 2018 that the ECMWF shows something trying to form into a Tropical Depression / Weak Tropical Storm.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/wVWjbXc.png[/mg]
Almost around the same time as yesterdays GFS runs.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Yellow Evan wrote:Too far west for me to get bullish, at least without more consistency.
Usually May storms are closer to Mexico. But It's plausible to have a storm this far west due to the +PMM. 26C-27C already extend up to 15N and 140W.
4 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
GFS shows it weak and doesn't last long.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 21
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
I'm definitely thinking that with the west based PMM and the potential for a Modoki-ish Nino, there will be many west based storms this year, with a lot of long trackers that go into the CPAC. If there is a year that Hawaii gets a hit, I'm thinking it would be this year.
4 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
More normal area of formation in May if this pans out on May 18,yes way ahead.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
A little bit stronger at 06z run starting at 126 hours and also has the close to CentralAmerica one on long range.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Euro is
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
cycloneye wrote:Euro is
Yeah it's still on vacation lol.
Thinking the 18z GFS keeps it. If the 00z GFS continues to have it then there's a chance the Euro comes on board in its 00z run.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:Euro is
Yeah it's still on vacation lol.
Thinking the 18z GFS keeps it. If the 00z GFS continues to have it then there's a chance the Euro comes on board in its 00z run.
Yes,18z has it again.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
The timeframe shrinks for the close to CentralAmerica area that GFS has been showing for many runs as it all begins on day 10.It also continues to show the open water system. Now we wait for the Euro to wake up.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Euro has the western based TC as either a weak TS or a TD. Just develops it too late and runs out of warm waters. Pretty good chance for development I would say. Probably a yellow marker soon.
Euro also looks like it has a weak TS/TD off of Mexico @ hour 240.
Looks like the GFS and the Euro are coming into agreement.
Euro also looks like it has a weak TS/TD off of Mexico @ hour 240.
Looks like the GFS and the Euro are coming into agreement.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:Euro has the western based TC as either a weak TS or a TD. Just develops it too late and runs out of warm waters. Pretty good chance for development I would say. Probably a yellow marker soon.
Euro also looks like it has a weak TS/TD off of Mexico @ hour 240.
Looks like the GFS and the Euro are coming into agreement.
The first TC doesn't look like it'll break Adrian's record last year, but probably another preseason system
1 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
The 00z run of Euro will be important to see if is in complete agreement with GFS but is a good sign what it has at 12z.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
Model guidance is hinting that a tropical low will develop near
11N115W during the middle of next week and intensify as it
tracks northwest and later north. The Easter Pacific Hurricane
Season runs from May 15th to November 30th. The Easter Pacific
basin extends to 140W.
11N115W during the middle of next week and intensify as it
tracks northwest and later north. The Easter Pacific Hurricane
Season runs from May 15th to November 30th. The Easter Pacific
basin extends to 140W.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 EPAC Season
No change from GFS at 18z. Only the close to CA doesn't develop because it interacts with land but copious rains for those folks.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here