EPAC: ONE-E - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A persistent broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1011 mb
surface low at 10N119W. Environmental conditions are favorable
for slow development over the next few days as the low moves
moves northwestward. A blend of global guidance results in a
solution of a surface low near 11N121W this evening accompanied
by strong to near gale force winds. The forecast is for gale
force conditions to develop within 90 nm over the northwest
quadrant of the low near 12N122W on Wed morning. Gale conditions
should continue through Fri when environmental conditions will
become less favorable. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone.

[AnnularCane]

Are they ever going to post an update?

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1030 AM PDT Tue May 8 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that a broad area of low pressure has
developed in association with the region of disturbed weather
located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. The system is gradually becoming
better organized and environmental conditions appear to be favorable
for some additional development. A tropical depression could form
from this system later today or Wednesday before the disturbance
moves slowly northwestward toward unfavorable upper-level winds
later this week. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 11 AM PDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[NotSparta]

1 min imagery from GOES-16 for the system:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... hecked=map

[Kingarabian]

Just needs to build and maintain some convection and its classifiable.

[Kingarabian]

Solid outflow already:

[NotSparta]

Solid outflow already:

I think the PV streamer that initiated the convection in the system also is providing outflow. Also, it's really starting to spin!

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical depression probably within the next 12 hours based on that satellite look, imo. Probably Tropical storm by this time tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

When one of them says this,I guess there is a good chance.

@EricBlake12
Goes 16 over Ep90 today in the eastern Pacific - decent chance of formation next couple of days

[NotSparta]

TCFA issued.

[cycloneye]

Will 90E form into a Tropical Depression before 18z on May 9th? That was the date and time TD formed in 2017 making it the earliest TC forming in EPAC and later became TS Adrian on the 10th.

[cycloneye]

@wxtrackercody
Watching towers grow with #90E as the sun sets. It has all but attained tropical depression status. Waiting on word from NHC.

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/994041115400724480

[Chris90]

I think if it can maintain or grow the convection it currently has, it would be very reasonable for the NHC to declare this within the next 12 hours.

[StruThiO]

now at 70/70

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 AM PDT Wed May 9 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms have become
a little better organized this morning in association with a broad
area of low pressure located more than 1100 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although recent
satellite-derived surface wind data indicate winds of 30 to 35 mph
were occurring on the northwest side of the disturbance, the
low-level circulation remains elongated. However, only a slight
increase in the amount and organization of the thunderstorm activity
or an improvement in the surface wind field would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today while the system
moves northwestward at around 10 mph. By late Thursday, upper-level
winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 11 AM PDT later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[euro6208]

Wow...the way this had all the attention in the beginning you would think something *Major*...Now GFS joins EURO on a weak fish...

[StruThiO]

Wow...the way this had all the attention in the beginning you would think something *Major*...Now GFS joins EURO on a weak fish...

because of the potential for a record breaking early formation

[euro6208]

Wow...the way this had all the attention in the beginning you would think something *Major*...Now GFS joins EURO on a weak fish...

because of the potential for a record breaking early formation

Had to say it sorry...

[StruThiO]

Had to say it sorry...[/quote]

No, I get it, feels like 90E has gotten as much attention as a disturbance than Jelawat did as a super typhoon. Again, to be fair a record is on the line until later today.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific definitely warrants monitoring as there is a robust mid-level vortex, though the disturbance seems to be lacking deep convection at the current time frame.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/994242519432081414

[cycloneye]

Time is running out.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A broad and elongated area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1008
mb surface low at 11N123W. Convection has slightly decreased
during the last several hours being mainly concentrated in the
west semicircle of the low within 225 nm of its center. A blend
of global guidance results in a solution of a surface low, or
possible tropical cyclone near 12N124W on Thu afternoon with
minimal gale force winds mainly over the north semicircle. The
system is forecast to continue northwestward into an area of
increasing unfavorable shear on Thu, likely hindering further
development of this system. Model guidance suggest winds will
diminish to near gale force by Thu night/early on Fri.