EPAC: ONE-E - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

ECMWF is the winner here.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1025 AM PDT Wed May 9 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

After a period of increased organization during the past 24 hours,
the shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure
located more than 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has markedly decreased. It appears that
the disturbance is already reaching an unfavorable environment, and
the chances of tropical cyclone formation are diminishing. However,
a tropical depression could still form later today before strong
upper-level winds become established over the system on Thursday.
Another Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be
issued by 11 AM PDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[galaxy401]

Looks like we're not going to break the record that was just broken last year.

[HurricaneRyan]

Looks like we're not going to break the record that was just broken last year.

Eh, this isn't a record that really needs to be broken. It would be more impressive for the EPAC to do what the Atlantic did and have an off season storm form three years in a row (Pali in 2016, Adrian in 2017, Aletta if she forms in 2018)

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
90E is turning out to be a difficult case teetering on the edge of genesis. For a while now, a broad, elliptical circulation has existed. But is there something more symmetric and better-defined near the convection? It's hard to tell without ASCAT or high-frequency sat imagery.



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/994603225235017729

[galaxy401]

Looks like we're not going to break the record that was just broken last year.

Eh, this isn't a record that really needs to be broken. It would be more impressive for the EPAC to do what the Atlantic did and have an off season storm form three years in a row (Pali in 2016, Adrian in 2017, Aletta if she forms in 2018)

Doesn't mean I still want to see the record be broken.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1040 AM PDT Thu May 10 2018

Correction to change Thursday to Friday in the time of the next
outlook issuance

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Although the shower activity associated with the broad area of low
pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has increased this morning, the
low-level circulation is elongated and remains poorly defined.
However, only a small increase in organization could lead to the
formation of a tropical depression later today or early Friday
before the upper-level winds become highly unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation. This system should move slowly toward the
west-northwest or northwest during the next couple of days. Another
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued
by 11 AM PDT on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[Kingarabian]

Would've been classified if there was recon. Seen worse in the Atlantic.

[Sciencerocks]

Would've been classified if there was recon. Seen worse in the Atlantic.

No question about it! I believe it was probably a depression for about 12-18 hours.

[supercane]

WTPZ41 KNHC 102033
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during
the past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface
circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical
depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are
2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The
depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind
environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a
short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner.

Since the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain
and appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5
knots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and
not change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a
weak subtropical ridge is anticipated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kingarabian]

WTPZ41 KNHC 102033
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during
the past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface
circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical
depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are
2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The
depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind
environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a
short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner.

Since the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain
and appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5
knots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and
not change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a
weak subtropical ridge is anticipated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

There we go lol.

1st 50% chance storm to develop in a while.

[Chris90]

Just when I had written it off as a lost cause, it pulls itself together. Slightly disappointed it didn't break the record, but there are other records that can be broken this year. As long as all the storms try to break records out on the open sea, I'm here for it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018

Tropical Depression One-E continues to maintain a cluster of strong
convection to the northeast of the center even though it is
encountering 25-40 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.
Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range
from 25-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The
continued convection is possibly being aided by a weak upper-level
trough just west of the depression. The dynamical models forecast
this trough to move east of the depression in 24 h or less, exposing
the cyclone to even stronger shear. Based on this, the intensity
forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for
the system to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in less
than 24 h. One small change from the previous forecast is to keep
the system an extra 12 h as a remnant low in agreement with the
dynamical model guidance.

The initial motion is 295/8. Through its lifetime, the cyclone
should move generally west-northwestward to northwestward around the
western end of a weak subtropical ridge with a gradual decrease in
forward speed. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
track and lies a little to the east of the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 12.7N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

Still maintaining deep convection east of the LLC. I would say convection is "mature" enough to have TS winds. Also some banding features forming to the SSW.

ADT has this @ T2.5, which would support a TS upgrade. Too bad there's no AMSU or SATCON estimates.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018

West-southwesterly vertical shear has increased to 35-45 kt over the
depression, which has allowed the center to run out ahead of the
main cluster of deep convection during the past few hours. Despite
the depression's deteriorating structure, recent ASCAT data
confirmed that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt. Since the shear
is forecast to strengthen further, it will become increasingly more
difficult for the depression to sustain organized deep convection
near its center, and the system is likely to degenerate into a
remnant low by 24 hours. The remnant low should then dissipate in
about 3 days.

The depression has been moving due westward during the past few
hours, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt.
The cyclone is approaching a low- to mid-level trough to its
northwest, and it is expected to turn northwestward and slow down
during the next couple of days. The updated NHC forecast track has
been adjusted slightly westward from the previous one to account for
the recent short-term motion and a general westward shift in the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 12.6N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Buh bye.

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012018
800 PM PDT Fri May 11 2018

The depression has degenerated to a remnant low pressure area due to
the lack of organized convection during the past 12 h and ongoing
40 kt of westerly shear. Continued weakening of the system is
expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate completely
after 24 h. The low is expected to move slowly northwestward until
dissipation.

This is the last advisory on this system issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 12.9N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 12/1200Z 13.3N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0000Z 13.9N 130.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven