2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[wxman57]

Still looks like a phantom storm late next week in the GFS runs. However, that low in the eastern Gulf in 48-72 hrs could be real. Way too much shear for development, but it could bring some rain to the southeast U.S.

[tolakram]

I say this carefully ....

perhaps we should start to cut back on what the GFS says past a certain time period. This thread could potentially fill up with nothing but nonsense if we don't, in my opinion. I say we make 240 hours the limit since that's how far the Euro goes out too. I'm not calling for a hard and fast rule here, and I'm not saying this is some kind of board offense, just suggesting maybe we don't fill up this thread with phantom storms.

[LarryWx]

I say this carefully ....

perhaps we should start to cut back on what the GFS says past a certain time period. This thread could potentially fill up with nothing but nonsense if we don't, in my opinion. I say we make 240 hours the limit since that's how far the Euro goes out too. I'm not calling for a hard and fast rule here, and I'm not saying this is some kind of board offense, just suggesting maybe we don't fill up this thread with phantom storms.

Discouraging posts about storms more than 10 days out makes sense and is something to consider. However, I do see one downside: it prevents us from having documentation of these phantoms. By us posting about these more than 10 days out, especially on numerous runs in a row, it allows us to look back later in the season or even in subsequent seasons and be able to see how often these instances of many runs in a row end up being phantoms.

As a happy medium, would you be open to having a 2nd thread exclusively for more than 10 days out?

[Ntxw]

My opinion is a second thread isn't necessary. Most of GFS post Euro/Canadian/Ukmet time frame is food for thought only anyway. I think folks here are smart enough to understand that after years of model watching . Some can take a bit further than what it's meant to be but generally speaking I feel it is fine.

I do think we could tone down on the dramatic images of the GFS depicting a high end hurricane at 300+ hours. It rarely if ever verifies and best used as a broader indicator for what the general pattern may look like, a TC is simply too small a scale event for such a global model to capture at such distant lengths in time. This case being lowering of pressures and rising motion in the W-Carib into the Eastern Gulf that's about all for now.

[psyclone]

No pro here but I'm anticipating no fewer than 300 units of phantom ACE this season.

[MetroMike]

During slow times in the hurricane season sometimes it's nice to see if anything is being sniffed out by the models. This thread gets buried at times.
Some of the longer range predictions of models did fairly well last year during Irma.
Most of us here know that two weeks out models could change.
Should sites like Tropical Tidbits start censoring information produced by scientific models?
Just my opinion.

[AtlanticWind]

I say this carefully ....

perhaps we should start to cut back on what the GFS says past a certain time period. This thread could potentially fill up with nothing but nonsense if we don't, in my opinion. I say we make 240 hours the limit since that's how far the Euro goes out too. I'm not calling for a hard and fast rule here, and I'm not saying this is some kind of board offense, just suggesting maybe we don't fill up this thread with phantom storms.

The GFS "storm" we have talking about has been inside the 240 hour period on many of the runs,
Who would decide when we are allowed to discuss a potential system.

Seems like potential storms is what this thread is really about. JMO.

[LarryWx]

I say this carefully ....

perhaps we should start to cut back on what the GFS says past a certain time period. This thread could potentially fill up with nothing but nonsense if we don't, in my opinion. I say we make 240 hours the limit since that's how far the Euro goes out too. I'm not calling for a hard and fast rule here, and I'm not saying this is some kind of board offense, just suggesting maybe we don't fill up this thread with phantom storms.

The GFS "storm" we have talking about has been inside the 240 hour period on many of the runs,
Who would decide when we are allowed to discuss a potential system.

Seems like potential storms is what this thread is really about. JMO.

Good points. Maybe he's discouraging posting maps that are of TC positions over 240 hours out regardless of whether or not the progged genesis is within 240 hours?

Edit: Note that we're now filling up this thread with the debate itself
Should we have a new thread just for the debate, itself?

[tolakram]

Ha,

yea.

So much for that idea, but I made ya think anyway. Anyway point made, no harms or fouls, carry on.

[gatorcane]

The GFS just won't drop this system but even the 12Z run is not bringing in the timeframe. It's now out just beyond 10 days when genesis occurs near Nicaragua/Honduras. Note the CMC also shows genesis from the monsoon trough that forms near Panama but development is in the EPAC while the GFS continues to insist on the SW Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

The GFS just won't drop this system but even the 12Z run is not bringing in the timeframe. It's now out just beyond 10 days when genesis occurs near Nicaragua/Honduras. Note the CMC also shows genesis from the monsoon trough that forms near Panama but development is in the EPAC while the GFS continues to insist on the SW Caribbean.

Now we have even more ammunition supporting the high likelihood that this is a GFS/FV3 W. Caribbean phantom: forecast time slippage. I may need to change my 5/11-20 genesis analysis to a 5/21-31 genesis analysis.

[NDG]

Like I said earlier this morning the system that will keep us entertained for the meantime will be a weak hybrid type system in the eastern GOM that could be developing late weekend into early next week. Lots of rain for FL.

[ronjon]

Yes the low pressure in the NE GOM is something to watch but lowest forecast pressure I've seen is about 1007 mb - GFS seems to be the most bullish at this point. Crazy uncle CMC hardly bites. Euro does show some 850 mb vorticity.

[floridasun78]

Like I said earlier this morning the system that will keep us entertained for the meantime will be a weak hybrid type system in the eastern GOM that could be developing late weekend into early next week. Lots of rain for FL.

their expect alot rain over miami fl for next few days

[floridasun78]

https://go.usa.gov/xQnke here link how rain south fl going get

[USTropics]

Sure way to tell if it's a phantom storm, just look at the trend for forecast genesis/position:

[Ntxw]

Gone full circle with the GFS phantom. Loop is centered on May 22nd

[Alyono]

the latest FVGFS is straight out of a horror movie

slow movement over Havana, finishes off the Florida Keys, possibly causes levee failure on Lake Okeechobee, takes out the space port at Cape Caneveral, before lashing the Outer Banks before heading to New England

[TheStormExpert]

HOPEFULLY that supposed-to-be new and improved GFS goes through some serious testing and improvement before going into full operation.

Also, hopefully no-one is foolish enough to believe it's idea of a Wilma 2.0 happening in late-May.

[gatorcane]

Yeah that last FV3 run is unbelievable. What is this model going to show come peak of the season, like CAT 7s?