2018 NIO Cyclone Season
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- doomhaMwx
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2018 NIO Cyclone Season
The RSMC responsible for this basin is the India Meteorological Department(IMD), while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) releases unofficial advisories.
In the Indian Ocean north of the equator, tropical cyclones can form throughout the year on either side of India. On the east side is the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, and on the west side is the Arabian Sea. Water temperatures in the Arabian Sea are typically warm enough to allow for tropical cyclogenesis year round, although strong wind shear from the monsoon trough prevents formation in the summer months and limits intensity other times of the year.
Within this basin, a tropical cyclone is assigned a name when it is judged to have reached cyclonic storm intensity with winds of 62 km/h (40 mph). The names were selected by members of the ESCAP/WMO panel on Tropical Cyclones between 2000 and May 2004, before the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in New Delhi started to assign names in September 2004. There is no retirement of tropical cyclone names in this basin as the list of names is only scheduled to be used once before a new list of names is drawn up. Should a named tropical cyclone move into the basin from the Western Pacific, then it will retain its original name.
(Wikipedia)
Next 16 names: Ockhi Sagar Mekunu Daye Luban Titli Gaja Phethai Fani Vayu Hikaa Kyarr Maha Bulbul Pawan Amphan
IMD TC intensity scale:
Since only 2 months are left for this year, and it's unlikely that we will see that much TC activity in the NIO during these 2 months, I think it's okay to discuss the 2018 season here as well...
In the Indian Ocean north of the equator, tropical cyclones can form throughout the year on either side of India. On the east side is the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, and on the west side is the Arabian Sea. Water temperatures in the Arabian Sea are typically warm enough to allow for tropical cyclogenesis year round, although strong wind shear from the monsoon trough prevents formation in the summer months and limits intensity other times of the year.
Within this basin, a tropical cyclone is assigned a name when it is judged to have reached cyclonic storm intensity with winds of 62 km/h (40 mph). The names were selected by members of the ESCAP/WMO panel on Tropical Cyclones between 2000 and May 2004, before the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in New Delhi started to assign names in September 2004. There is no retirement of tropical cyclone names in this basin as the list of names is only scheduled to be used once before a new list of names is drawn up. Should a named tropical cyclone move into the basin from the Western Pacific, then it will retain its original name.
(Wikipedia)
Next 16 names: Ockhi Sagar Mekunu Daye Luban Titli Gaja Phethai Fani Vayu Hikaa Kyarr Maha Bulbul Pawan Amphan
IMD TC intensity scale:
Since only 2 months are left for this year, and it's unlikely that we will see that much TC activity in the NIO during these 2 months, I think it's okay to discuss the 2018 season here as well...
Last edited by doomhaMwx on Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
A broad area of disturbed weather over the southern Bay of Bengal needs to be closely watched for possible further development during the rest of this week and next week... It is possible that the weak 29W will merge or get absorbed into this feature on the next few days...
The models vary on how fast and strong will development be, with the GFS, CMC, and HWRF being the most aggressive... The arrival of a favorable MJO signal in the area, and according to the CPC, an equatorial Rossby wave, could increase the chances of further development...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/
The models vary on how fast and strong will development be, with the GFS, CMC, and HWRF being the most aggressive... The arrival of a favorable MJO signal in the area, and according to the CPC, an equatorial Rossby wave, could increase the chances of further development...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
Hmmm... GFS just being GFS?
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
Multiple vortices/circulations appear to exist within that area of disturbed weather over the southern and central BoB, and it remains to be seen which one of these becomes dominant and possibly develops further, but the global models are hinting that it could be coming from the vicinity of Sri Lanka...
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
Invest 90B, off the east coast of South India...
The global models don't develop it much, most probably a Tropical Depression or minimal TS at most...
The global models don't develop it much, most probably a Tropical Depression or minimal TS at most...
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
The Bay of Bengal is convectively active lately. A LPA is located over the southern Bay of Bengal according to the IMD.
This system is likely to remain weak, most probably not stronger than a Tropical Depression, as it approaches and moves over Sri Lanka and India's Tamil Nadu state during the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall will still be a threat to the mentioned areas, however.
This system is likely to remain weak, most probably not stronger than a Tropical Depression, as it approaches and moves over Sri Lanka and India's Tamil Nadu state during the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall will still be a threat to the mentioned areas, however.
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
GFS has been showing a TC during the last week of Nov or early Dec over the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal, which begins as a disturbance over the SCS or Gulf of Thailand.
The 12Z ECMWF also develops TC near the Andaman-Nicobar islands, but I'm not sure if the incipient disturbance also originates from the WPAC.
Both models have it eventually striking India.
The 12Z ECMWF also develops TC near the Andaman-Nicobar islands, but I'm not sure if the incipient disturbance also originates from the WPAC.
Both models have it eventually striking India.
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
GFS and ECMWF are still showing TC development over the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal... This feature is also now appearing on CMC and NAVGEM.
These models also favor an eventual landfall somewhere along the east coast of India, but of course it's still too early to be sure.
It appears that a low-latitude LPA may form between Borneo and Peninsula Malaysia, and cross the latter or Southern Thailand on the next few days. Likely the candidate for what the models are showing.
These models also favor an eventual landfall somewhere along the east coast of India, but of course it's still too early to be sure.
It appears that a low-latitude LPA may form between Borneo and Peninsula Malaysia, and cross the latter or Southern Thailand on the next few days. Likely the candidate for what the models are showing.
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:GFS and ECMWF are still showing TC development over the Andaman Sea / Bay of Bengal... This feature is also now appearing on CMC and NAVGEM.
These models also favor an eventual landfall somewhere along the east coast of India, but of course it's still too early to be sure.
It appears that a low-latitude LPA may form between Borneo and Peninsula Malaysia, and cross the latter or Southern Thailand on the next few days. Likely the candidate for what the models are showing.
INVEST 93W has been designated between Borneo and Peninsular Malaysia.
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Re: 2017 and 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
Tropical Storm Ockhi near the southwestern coast of India moving towards the Arabian Sea, and Invest 93W near/over the Malay Peninsula.
Elektro-L1 VIS
11-30-2017 8:30am UTC
Elektro-L1 VIS
11-30-2017 8:30am UTC
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
The operational ECMWF run as well as the EPS are consistently developing a cyclone in five to six days which moves through the Gulf of Aden. This alone would already be very unusual since only a handful systems have ever been recorded entering the Gulf. However, it is even more interesting that the predicted track would take the system through the entire Gulf of Aden until making landfall in Djibouti (!) at tropical storm strength. Needless to say, no tropical cyclone is currently known to have impacted Djibouti.
It's also worth noting that the GFS is not showing any kind of development (even the GEFS doesn't have a single member with a low in the area!), so we basically have the complete opposite situation compared to the Carribean where only the GFS/GEFS develops a storm but the ECMWF and EPS doesn't. This will certainly be interesting to follow...
Source: weather.us
It's also worth noting that the GFS is not showing any kind of development (even the GEFS doesn't have a single member with a low in the area!), so we basically have the complete opposite situation compared to the Carribean where only the GFS/GEFS develops a storm but the ECMWF and EPS doesn't. This will certainly be interesting to follow...
Source: weather.us
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
It's rare, but has happened before. In fact, it happened twice in 2015 with both Chapala and Megh.
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
1900hurricane wrote:It's rare, but has happened before. In fact, it happened twice in 2015 with both Chapala and Megh.
Yes, there have only been six cyclones entering the Gulf of Aden on record with two of them occurring within a week in 2015. That sure was a bizarre event. An unnamed storm from 1984 is currently the only system known to have moved through the western parts of the Gulf.
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
Still on the latest(05/11 00Z) ECMWF run.
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Re: 2018 NIO Cyclone Season
The ECMWF model and its ensembles remain rather consistent, and time frame is getting closer and closer. Also, the model still has it continuing to track west into the western portions of the gulf!
Other global models, including GFS, are still not so enthusiastic, but conditions may indeed become favorable for development this coming week as a favorable MJO signal moves through the region.
Other global models, including GFS, are still not so enthusiastic, but conditions may indeed become favorable for development this coming week as a favorable MJO signal moves through the region.
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