Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

[psyclone]

This could be the almost annual June storm arriving a few days early just in time to disrupt holiday weekend activities for Florida. Memorial day tends to be the best of the Summer holidays for Florida (weatherwise) and it's logical from a climo perspective to plan vacations at that time. That bet may go south this year depending on how things pan out. Some areas of Florida have gotten very heavy rain lately so flooding and some severe risk could be an issue even with a weak, sheared system. At the very least it looks like high PWAT plumes of moisture and attendant rainfall will remain an issue..

[cycloneye]

The ICON model is also among the models that develops this.This is at 180 hours.

[drezee]

The ICON model is also among the models that develops this.

Classic June structure...maybe tornadoes over FL as it moves N...definite shear and high capes

[drezee]

One more point on the Euro...it has a lot of energy. Multiple centers of vorticity. If it did bundle, then it would get interesting...

[gatorcane]

Navgem too fast and too strong.

http://oi65.tinypic.com/34q9wkz.jpg

18Z NAVGEM sends this NE out of the Caribbean and through South Florida as what looks like a hurricane:

[Alyono]

it's going full Irma 2.0

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
let me be clear on idea on early season development, Its not based on GFS runs, its based on analogs to past patterns that produced it, whether model sees it or not, and the phase 2 MJO rotation which is a known positive for enhanced activity in close to US Analog to 2012 helps

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/997267812094799872

[gatorcane]

One more point on the Euro...it has a lot of energy. Multiple centers of vorticity. If it did bundle, then it would get interesting...

Let us not forget these are the same models that on several occasions last year took being within 5 days or even less until they really showed development. So you never know, could this end up stronger and more organized than we think if it develops? Climo argues against that but you never know.

[toad strangler]

The European ensembles are lighting up like a Christmas tree with this potential system. Still a long way out, but we’ve seen this movie before. Definitely has my attention, along with others.

I’d also like to mention that I wouldn’t take the doomsday models seriously. It’s mid-May. Conditions will be marginal at best in the Gulf, and that might be a generous word to use based on ensemble solutions. If anything comes out of this, expect your typical early season tropical storm. Not a Category 3, that’s ludicrous based on the current and forecasted conditions.

I mentioned Andrea 2013 earlier today. I think it's a very strong analog for this situation.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012013_Andrea.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Andrea_(2013)

[TheStormExpert]

One more point on the Euro...it has a lot of energy. Multiple centers of vorticity. If it did bundle, then it would get interesting...

Let us not forget these are the same models that on several occasions last year took being within 5 days or even less until they really showed development. So you never know, could this end up stronger and more organized than we think if it develops? Climo argues against that but you never know.

If I remember correctly the Euro wasn’t the best within its 8-10 day range last season. Though I’d bet what it’s showing on its recent 12z run over crazy Cat.3 solutions like what the GFS/FV3-GFS is showing.

[TheStormExpert]

The European ensembles are lighting up like a Christmas tree with this potential system. Still a long way out, but we’ve seen this movie before. Definitely has my attention, along with others.

I’d also like to mention that I wouldn’t take the doomsday models seriously. It’s mid-May. Conditions will be marginal at best in the Gulf, and that might be a generous word to use based on ensemble solutions. If anything comes out of this, expect your typical early season tropical storm. Not a Category 3, that’s ludicrous based on the current and forecasted conditions.

I mentioned Andrea 2013 earlier today. I think it's a very strong analog for this situation.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL012013_Andrea.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Andrea_(2013)

Or even Tropical Storm Barry (2007)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Barry_(2007)

[cycloneye]

Already a small pink.

[TheStormExpert]

Here’s the 12z EPS Ensembles. In fact they’re are more bullish with this potential system, with several showing a minimal Cat.1 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
I say when it comes to modeling, judge the tree by the fruit on it, And let freedom ring, GFS very often will show something dozens of times before it pops, But phase 2 MJO next week has been on our radar for quite some time, and that is concern

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/997268748120875008

[Dylan]

The European ensembles are lighting up like a Christmas tree with this potential system. Still a long way out, but we’ve seen this movie before. Definitely has my attention, along with others.

I’d also like to mention that I wouldn’t take the doomsday models seriously. It’s mid-May. Conditions will be marginal at best in the Gulf, and that might be a generous word to use based on ensemble solutions. If anything comes out of this, expect your typical early season tropical storm. Not a Category 3, that’s ludicrous based on the current and forecasted conditions.

if this were to become a hurricane, it probably would have the best chance to do so east of Florida and the Carolinas. May have more baroclinic forcing there, as well as more divergent flow

Based on 500mb heights forecasted by the EPS along with teleconnections, I don’t think that strong of a weakness will be in place for such a NE motion across FL Into the Bahamas ect. This is more likely a Gulf problem, albeit a weak system. I think what we’re seeing is the typical eastward bias typically displayed by the GFS. Most EPS ensembles shows the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

I’d also like to mention that I wouldn’t take the doomsday models seriously. It’s mid-May. Conditions will be marginal at best in the Gulf, and that might be a generous word to use based on ensemble solutions. If anything comes out of this, expect your typical early season tropical storm. Not a Category 3, that’s ludicrous based on the current and forecasted conditions.

if this were to become a hurricane, it probably would have the best chance to do so east of Florida and the Carolinas. May have more baroclinic forcing there, as well as more divergent flow

Based on 500mb heights forecasted by the EPS along with teleconnections, I don’t think that strong of a weakness will be in place for such a NE motion across FL Into the Bahamas ect. This is more likely a Gulf problem, albeit a weak system. I think what we’re seeing is the typical eastward bias typically displayed by the crappy MU. Most EPS ensembles shows the Gulf.

I was thinking the same but the CMC, ECMWF operational, and NAVGEM (not to mention most of the GFS ensembles now) show a NE or NNE motion due to a pretty deep low that develops over SE Canada which further erodes the Bermuda High.

[floridasun78]

i waiting for next week too see what my miami weather office say about long weekend because we alot event here at beach people coming down long weekend beach going pack hotel all soldout

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/997161373950971906?s=21

[Evil Jeremy]

Oh boy, time to break out that bookmarks bar! Couple weeks early, too. Happy pre-season, everyone.

Going by this afternoon's models, impact to the E-GOM would be in 8-10 day range. That's well past a reliable range, but not outside the realm of possibility. Sometimes, we have seen model scenarios play out from even 14 days out.

[floridasun78]

Oh boy, time to break out that bookmarks bar! Couple weeks early, too. Happy pre-season, everyone.

Going by this afternoon's models, impact to the E-GOM would be in 8-10 day range. That's well past a reliable range, but not outside the realm of possibility. Sometimes, we have seen model scenarios play out from even 14 days out.

hope this all wrong too many plan for long weekend see system blow long weekend too kingdom come here south fl