ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Post-Tropical

[djones65]

Looking back at NRL site... the eye-like feature was only present between 06-09Z. I wanted to correct that.
Also, as is normal for tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean... they are quite frequently "under-estimated" in intensity. As Sagar was likely a cyclone long before officially designated in my humble opinion.

[Ed_2001]

01A SAGAR 180518 0000 11.9N 46.4E IO 50 985

[Ed_2001]

Bizarre little system. By the way, I’ve been lurking around storm2k for a year and I really enjoy and appreciate the discussion going on here

[Sciencerocks]

I wonder if it can take a northward curve and get into the red sea? That would be really cool.

[Sciencerocks]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/n_i ... /track.gif

[doomhaMwx]

Impressive...



Also a faint eye-feature on VIS imagery.

[doomhaMwx]

A bulls-eye ASCAT pass around 06Z today also shows sustained-winds of at least 50kts, supporting the current estimate of agencies.




01A SAGAR 180518 0600 11.6N 45.9E IO 50 995

[doomhaMwx]

Model guidance shows rainfall accumulations greater than 200mm(8in) from Sagar.

[Alyono]

a clear eye has formed. This is at least 70 kts. IMD woefully weak AGAIN

[euro6208]

Closeup of the expected landfall...Right into the desert...

[euro6208]

Midget cyclone...

[Alyono]

does not look like this will hit many people

[Yellow Evan]

This is likely a hurricane given it's structure.

[Alyono]

This is likely a hurricane given it's structure.

agreed. I am not sure what JTWC or IMD is looking at to determine their T numbers

[Sciencerocks]

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The fresh ASCAT pass shows 55-60 kt wind barbs, so it is probably a Category 1 cyclone now (and it likely was in the daytime already).

[BYG Jacob]

The IMD massively underestimating a storm? No way...

[doomhaMwx]

Sagar is making a very rare landfall, or has made landfall, over western Somalia, not too far from the border with Djibouti this Saturday morning/noon (Somali and Djibouti time).




The last tropical cyclone to reach this portion of the Gulf of Aden was Tropical Storm 01A of May 1984, and also made landfall a little east of where Sagar is making landfall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_Nort ... one_season

[euro6208]

Underestimated at landfall...

[Sciencerocks]