ARABIAN SEA: MEKUNU - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Location: 3.5°N 67.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A

[cycloneye]

Euro makes it a strong cyclone.

[cycloneye]

Yikes.

[doomhaMwx]

There is good support from the global models that this will also develop into tropical cyclone on the next few days, just after Sagar. However, uncertainty exists at the moment as far as the track is concerned.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks pretty good!

[doomhaMwx]

Potential threat to Oman and/or northern Yemen late this week...

92A INVEST 180520 0600 8.2N 64.9E IO 20 1005

[cycloneye]

HWRF goes bonkers.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 65.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 64.6E, APPROXIMATELY 815
NM SOUTHEAST OF DUQM, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING AND FLARING CONVECTION WITH
CONSOLIDATING MIDLEVEL ORGANIZATION. A 201350Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST, LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND VERY WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
ALTHOUGH ECMWF PROJECTS A LONGER TIMELINE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
PROPAGATES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[StruThiO]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 64.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 58.7E, APPROXIMATELY 755
NM SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISCERNIBLE BUT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO WRAP
IN. A 210148Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH THE CENTER UNDER 5-10 KNOTS
VWS AND THE PERIPHERY UNDER 15-20 KNOTS VWS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (31+ CELSIUS), WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDFALL OVER OMAN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

Organizing over the southwestern Arabian Sea.
Chances are that Oman and/or northern Yemen will see a landfalling hurricane-strength tropical cyclone late this week.

[cycloneye]

@MikeAdcockWx
At 1430 UTC, convection associated with Invest #92A was consolidating around the center with 4/10 banding. Data-T is 2.5, but Final-T is held at 1.5 due to constraints. This system is getting ready to quickly develop.

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/998594858867544083

[cycloneye]

WTIO21 PGTW 211400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0N 58.4E TO 12.6N 56.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.3N 58.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 58.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 58.2E, APPROXIMATELY 740
NM SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND BANDS OF FLARING CONVECTION FROM
THE SOUTH BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. A 211146Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL FORMATIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING. A 210552Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 10-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ROBUST POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (31+
CELSIUS), WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND
BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HOWEVER, THE
EXACT TRACK VARIES BETWEEN MODELS INDICATING A WIDE SPREAD FROM
EASTERN YEMEN TO CENTRAL OMAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221400Z.//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

Probably a T.d!

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

WTIO31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZMAY2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 57.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 57.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.8N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.9N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.1N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.5N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.4N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.5N 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM SOUTH OF
MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, DISPLACED MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
A THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FEATURES AND A 212324Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A RELATIVELY
WELL DEFINED LLCC AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES T2.0
(30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY IS SET HIGHER THAN
THE DVORAK BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AND A PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS FROM 211730Z WHICH REVEALED 30-35 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, THOUGH ONLY 25-30 KNOTS IN
THE OTHER QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, STRONGEST TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH, WITH SOME IMPINGEMENT ON THE OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE. VWS IN THE AREA IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS), WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. SSTS IN
THE AREA ARE VERY WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 12. THE
STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, RETREAT TOWARDS THE EAST AND
REORIENT TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS, ALLOWING TC 02A TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWARD AFTER THROUGH TAU 48. THE TRACK BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTWARD
BEYOND TAU 48 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST IN THE
ARABIAN SEA AND ANOTHER STR EXTENSION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SAUDI PENINSULA. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU
72, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN
TAUS 36 AND 48 DUE TO A REDUCTION IN THE OUTFLOW DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. OUTFLOW IMPROVES THEREAFTER AND TC 02A IS FORECAST TO REACH
PEAK INTENSITY NEAR TAU 72 AT 85 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
SALALAH, OMAN AROUND TAU 90. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST
TAUS. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO A DRYING
OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND TERRAIN INTERACTION, REACHING ONLY 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT, THOUGH
ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK. ECMWF AND BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DELINEATE THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIERS, TAKING THE SYSTEM
INTO EASTERN YEMEN. THE GALWEM AND COAMPS MODELS ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS, TAKING THE SYSTEM INLAND NEAR DUQM, OMAN. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED BETWEEN THE OUTLIERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK, BUT WITHIN THE
DENSE CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INCREASING BIFURCATION IN THE LATER TAUS LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 211400).//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

WTIO31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.5N 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.6N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.9N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.9N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.1N 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.1N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTH
OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 220530Z
METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) AND HEDGED ABOVE A KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WHICH CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT,
RANGING FROM 31 TO 32 DEGREE CELSIUS. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02A TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE INTENSIFYING. BY TAU 48 TC 02A WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKENING LOCATED BETWEEN THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AN ADDITIONAL STR TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTREMELY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF TC 02A AS THE FORECAST PROGRESSES. TC
02A WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48. LANDFALL WILL
OCCUR NEAR SALALAH, OMAN SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL TC 02A
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS TO THE EAST (NVGM, COTI, AND AFUI). THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK.
THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
INTENSITY. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY, FAVORING HWRF. THEREFORE, OVERALL THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z,
230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Not looking too bad, although the convection is mostly to the west of the center.

[doomhaMwx]

Next name's "Mekunu"...