Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
IF this were to develop, the best analogs I can think of are Barry 2007, Alberto 2006 and Andrea 2013. But shear may kill it off before it even happens.
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- wxman57
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
txwatcher91 wrote:wxman57 wrote:I still like the GFS solution best. It's the most realistic. The Euro has performed poorly in a high-shear environment in the past. The Canadian, well, it's the Canadian. Always add 180 degrees to the NAVGEM (NOGAPS) forecast track (only semi-joking).
If I remember correctly the Euro was just upgraded last year, correct? If so, what the Euro and other models showed in years past won't matter much since the Euro, CMC, and GFS have all 3 been upgraded in the past 1-2 years so we don't have a lot of data to go on. Having said that, I think something similar to the 06z NAVGEM and 12z GFS is reasonable with a weak TS that heads into the big bend area of FL. Meanwhile the FV3 implementation of the GFS is a disaster... the 06z run took the energy up over FL as a weak sloppy system but then developed a cat 3-4 cane right off the coast of LA... it makes absolutely no sense at all...
Don't assume that changing a model makes it better in all cases. We're seeing that with the "upgraded" GFS in testing. I just have learned through the years that the euro performs poorly in a high shear environment. Was that fixed with any recent upgrade? Probably not. I just see that moisture in the SW Caribbean tracking NNE to Florida, not NW toward Louisiana, given the rather strong SW upper-level flow across the Gulf. That's why I like the GFS over the Euro in this case.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
wxman57 wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:wxman57 wrote:I still like the GFS solution best. It's the most realistic. The Euro has performed poorly in a high-shear environment in the past. The Canadian, well, it's the Canadian. Always add 180 degrees to the NAVGEM (NOGAPS) forecast track (only semi-joking).
If I remember correctly the Euro was just upgraded last year, correct? If so, what the Euro and other models showed in years past won't matter much since the Euro, CMC, and GFS have all 3 been upgraded in the past 1-2 years so we don't have a lot of data to go on. Having said that, I think something similar to the 06z NAVGEM and 12z GFS is reasonable with a weak TS that heads into the big bend area of FL. Meanwhile the FV3 implementation of the GFS is a disaster... the 06z run took the energy up over FL as a weak sloppy system but then developed a cat 3-4 cane right off the coast of LA... it makes absolutely no sense at all...
Don't assume that changing a model makes it better in all cases. We're seeing that with the "upgraded" GFS in testing. I just have learned through the years that the euro performs poorly in a high shear environment. Was that fixed with any recent upgrade? Probably not. I just see that moisture in the SW Caribbean tracking NNE to Florida, not NW toward Louisiana, given the rather strong SW upper-level flow across the Gulf. That's why I like the GFS over the Euro in this case.
NNE ? maybe some mid to upper level moisture is being pulled/blown the to nne.. but the overall system/trough and main moisture/wave plume is heading nw to nnw..
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
I hope you don't burned by the GFS wxman57 on this one. Like I said before I wouldn't hedge on any model when something is not even yet organized. IMO
wxman57 wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:wxman57 wrote:I still like the GFS solution best. It's the most realistic. The Euro has performed poorly in a high-shear environment in the past. The Canadian, well, it's the Canadian. Always add 180 degrees to the NAVGEM (NOGAPS) forecast track (only semi-joking).
If I remember correctly the Euro was just upgraded last year, correct? If so, what the Euro and other models showed in years past won't matter much since the Euro, CMC, and GFS have all 3 been upgraded in the past 1-2 years so we don't have a lot of data to go on. Having said that, I think something similar to the 06z NAVGEM and 12z GFS is reasonable with a weak TS that heads into the big bend area of FL. Meanwhile the FV3 implementation of the GFS is a disaster... the 06z run took the energy up over FL as a weak sloppy system but then developed a cat 3-4 cane right off the coast of LA... it makes absolutely no sense at all...
Don't assume that changing a model makes it better in all cases. We're seeing that with the "upgraded" GFS in testing. I just have learned through the years that the euro performs poorly in a high shear environment. Was that fixed with any recent upgrade? Probably not. I just see that moisture in the SW Caribbean tracking NNE to Florida, not NW toward Louisiana, given the rather strong SW upper-level flow across the Gulf. That's why I like the GFS over the Euro in this case.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Looks like the NAVGEM shifted west now has it just offshore Alabama/Miss at 156 hours at 993MB
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Aric Dunn wrote:also here is the EUro .. almost all the parameters you would want.. in high def lol
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/gr ... 300mb.html
It wasn't me who asked, but thank you so much!
MississippiWx wrote:I don’t have access to Euro 850 vort maps
You can find these on tropicaltidbits also: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 52112&fh=0
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
stormlover2013 wrote:lol the new GFS model crazy model
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=228
The FV3 is wild... It is hard to take the model too seriously when it does things like this in May.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Euro coming in with an even less of an interaction with that system over the northern gulf coast. looks much more reasonable given the current position and organization of the system than the GFS with the crazy erratic motion.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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I believe the sky is falling...
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:stormlover2013 wrote:lol the new GFS model crazy model
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=228
The FV3 is wild... It is hard to take the model too seriously when it does things like this in May.
especially when it blows it up into a new cane OVER MISSISSIPPI and then moves it offshore
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- gatorcane
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
12Z ECMWF shifts east some looks to be headed for NOLA at 1001MB.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
12z ECMWF at 120 hours.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
At 144 hours well inland.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
72 hour TAFB surface forecast:
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
12z European is much quicker, with a landfall near the mouth of the river, through extreme eastern St. Bernard, and into Slidell on Saturday evening as a 45-50 knot tropical storm.
Classic windshield wiper effect that we always see with tropical systems.
Classic windshield wiper effect that we always see with tropical systems.
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
Is that a bit more west for landfall than previous runs, Dylan?
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest
wxman57 wrote:txwatcher91 wrote:wxman57 wrote:I still like the GFS solution best. It's the most realistic. The Euro has performed poorly in a high-shear environment in the past. The Canadian, well, it's the Canadian. Always add 180 degrees to the NAVGEM (NOGAPS) forecast track (only semi-joking).
If I remember correctly the Euro was just upgraded last year, correct? If so, what the Euro and other models showed in years past won't matter much since the Euro, CMC, and GFS have all 3 been upgraded in the past 1-2 years so we don't have a lot of data to go on. Having said that, I think something similar to the 06z NAVGEM and 12z GFS is reasonable with a weak TS that heads into the big bend area of FL. Meanwhile the FV3 implementation of the GFS is a disaster... the 06z run took the energy up over FL as a weak sloppy system but then developed a cat 3-4 cane right off the coast of LA... it makes absolutely no sense at all...
Don't assume that changing a model makes it better in all cases. We're seeing that with the "upgraded" GFS in testing. I just have learned through the years that the euro performs poorly in a high shear environment. Was that fixed with any recent upgrade? Probably not. I just see that moisture in the SW Caribbean tracking NNE to Florida, not NW toward Louisiana, given the rather strong SW upper-level flow across the Gulf. That's why I like the GFS over the Euro in this case.
I agree, most of these "upgrades" to the models in recent years haven't improved things and the FV3 GFS is crazy for TC genesis/intensity as I alluded to in my post (12z run proves this even more). My point is simply that with the upgrades/changes to models in recent years we can't really know how they will handle this high shear environment since we only have 1-2 years of data to go on, at most. Models seem to be converging on a threat from the FL big bend area to Louisiana. I lean towards a track that takes it to the Louisiana/Pensacola area and then it gets picked up to the NE in a weakness or approaching cold front.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
I go with 0%-40% on next STWO. Those who want to make a guess of how the percents will be at 8 PM STWO go ahead.
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- Kazmit
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
I agree with 0%/40% but I don't think it'll be higher than that.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Western Caribbean Area of Interest: Next STWO at 8 PM EDT
If trends continue hopefully holiday weekend won’t be a washout across SFL.
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