Thanks for that updated, I was just in the model board and saw the same posting. Someone had posted one a page or so back which I though showed the 3 to 5", now were talking the potential for a foot or more of rain. Just crazy
![Surprised :eek:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
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gatorcane wrote:Steve wrote:I'll be in Texas all weekend, so it's irrelevant to me what happens. But I'd give the consensus of models showing the center coming up (and possibly meandering either on or offshore) somewhere between the Mouth of the Mississippi River and Panama City way more credence that the GFS. For all of you leaning toward the GFS's solutions the last few days, including pro-mets, you already know when it's GFS vs. almost everything else that the likelihood of it being correct is remote. It happens, but not often. Obviously with the setup, the majority of the weather would be to the east. So depending on where the center was and how strong the upper jet is depends on who gets the weather. Eastern Gulf and Florida look most likely to me to get the most significant rainfall. It's not a center event, so it really doesn't matter where the center comes ashore unless you are east of it (or unless the pattern was to change and the system was to slow up).
The 12Z UKMET is with the GFS now into FL peninsula see models thread.
Dylan wrote:12z GEFS ensembles are well to the west of the operational GFS. East-central Gulf of Mexico.
cycloneye wrote:The Canadian.
Aric Dunn wrote:120 hours. land fall mouth of the mississippi. slightly stronger. probably 995mb ish..
Aric Dunn wrote:120 hours. land fall mouth of the mississippi. slightly stronger. probably 995mb ish..
NotSparta wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:120 hours. land fall mouth of the mississippi. slightly stronger. probably 995mb ish..
tropicaltidbits says 999mbs
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