WeatherEmperor wrote:NotSparta wrote::uarrow:
I agree, it's completely due to the atmosphere. It can all be explained by mostly atmospheric processes, which is not how an era of -AMO starts. The cool MDR is due to the strong trades induced by +NAO. The subtropical warm pool is due to high pressure, like the EPAC "warm blob" in 2014. The cold pool in the far NATL is due to both the persistent +NAO and the persistent Baffin Bay trough, that being caused by the weakening of the polar vortex. The Baffin BAY trough is also helping to keep +NAO around
How much longer do you think this +NAO will last? If you do see it lasting through the peak of the season, do you think it could pose a problem with tropical systems getting blocked from recurving and posing more of a threat to the SE coast?
It is hard to say. When a signature SSTa pattern is created, feedback from it becomes difficult to change unless something larger displaces it. A period of -NAO won't reverse it, you need months of net -NAO to reverse. Atmospheric patterns come and go but SSTa patterns are harder to change longterm.