ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Steve]

How much?

I’m willing to bet that the NWS in Miami lowers the rain chances for this coming holiday weekend because the closet approach to S FL is about 450 miles away and the panhandle about 700 miles away. Even if the storm is lopsided to the east it will still be far enough away to not rain us out.

I’ll bet a 6 pack of beer and this is for SE Florida not the Sarasota area.

I don’t know. I think that the instability there interacting with the outflow could mean ridiculous rain potential anywhere from the Keys to the Bahamas (talking Latitude 80ish potential). So I wouldn’t rule out some of the heaviest rainfall potential down yalls way. Maybe they get more toward the western side of the state, but short of consolidation, there should be ample potential for the next 4-5 days across all of south Florida. Most depiction products show the arc of the worst maybe into SE AL, SW GA and the central Panhandle. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of 8-10”+ over the next few days across south Florida. JMO

Edit to say the 00Z QPF is out from the hydrological prediction center and I think the 7 Day rain is understated in this output.
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p16 ... 1527129609

[Aric Dunn]

So you can see the low level rotation/circ emerging from underneath the convection ( of course being sheared off). right now NW side of the Yucatan. appears to be drifting NW. will likely become broad again by moring without being over water and no convection but should see a westward shift in models later if of course they are initialized in that general area.

[floridasun78]

miami weather office still see alot rain for south fl for now Saturday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Breezy, with a southeast wind 7 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 83. Breezy, with a southeast wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[djones65]

Elaborating a bit more... With such a defined circulation existing at the moment, it would be extremely rare to see a "suddenly new" low level circulation to develop. Center reformations are more rare than most realize in my opinion and only occur when there is a very broad low pressure area. But in this case, the low level center is relatively well defined and specific over the north central Yucatan. I see absolutely no significant elongation to the east over the Yucatan channel in my opinion.

[AdamFirst]

I'm not calling any bets until it's the weekend and this potential system is lifting up and away from Southern Florida's latitudes. NWS Melbourne still calls for deep tropical moisture - the atmospheric river that's been overhead for the past week and change - to stream upward from the south to north. A system like this is not absolute - earlier today convection was spread all the way towards Jamaica.

[boca]

So you can see the low level rotation/circ emerging from underneath the convection ( of course being sheared off). right now NW side of the Yucatan. appears to be drifting NW. will likely become broad again by moring without being over water and no convection but should see a westward shift in models later if of course they are initialized in that general area.

That is the reason I’m going with lower rain chances because the low pressure is almost in the BOC and and the models will be shifting west as well.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2400&fh=81

[Twisted-core]

12z ukmet

https://imgur.com/vG4BRZI




https://imgur.com/zKGIqoP

Same deal.

[psyclone]

A southeast wind provides a nice heat flux off the gulfstream for south florida and the keys. those areas are probably going to be very wet...maybe moreso than areas of the west coast

[AdamFirst]

Won't models initialize at the best track location, which is near Belize?

[psyclone]

Are we sure the low is that far northwest? Late day visibles looked farther southeast just northwest of the bay of Chetumal.

[Aric Dunn]

Are we sure the low is that far northwest? Late day visibles looked farther southeast just northwest of the bay of Chetumal.

late day/long term loop showed it developing near the middle of the Yucatan. surface obs confirm. at least for now that is where its at. will of course bounce around.

[tropicwatch]

Are we sure the low is that far northwest? Late day visibles looked farther southeast just northwest of the bay of Chetumal.

Not for certain but Aric Dunn has been pretty spot on so far. It is a surprise.

[Aric Dunn]

Are we sure the low is that far northwest? Late day visibles looked farther southeast just northwest of the bay of Chetumal.

Not for certain but Aric Dunn has been pretty spot on so far. It is a surprise.

I mean it is pretty straightforward at the time being.. you can see it pop out and slowly move wnw or nw with the surface obs and pressures confirming pressures are about 1009 to 1010 in that area.. hard to tell how well defined it is. but it is definitely more defined than anything thus far. so we just wait ..

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=123

[Aric Dunn]

honestly given the current location and movement it is most inline with ICON. also just checked the 00z ICON even more west.. nearly to texas at the end..

though by that time looks like remnants.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON at 6 to 12 hours has it in the eastern BOC which makes sense if this current circ is the main llc and continues wnw to nw..

[SouthFloridawx]

Done!

How much?

I’m willing to bet that the NWS in Miami lowers the rain chances for this coming holiday weekend because the closet approach to S FL is about 450 miles away and the panhandle about 700 miles away. Even if the storm is lopsided to the east it will still be far enough away to not rain us out.

I’ll bet a 6 pack of beer and this is for SE Florida not the Sarasota area.

[stormlover2013]

So Aric do we see a West shift tonight ?

[Aric Dunn]

ICON 144 hours.. landfall Brownsville lol ..