ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Stormcenter]

I believe it will be sooner than Saturday before 90L pushes off the Yucatan. IMO

@MJVentrice
I strongly believe that models will better align with invest #90L on track and intensity once this storm pushes off the Yucatan on Saturday. Until then, there is still room for change in the models.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/999642080367529984

[Shell Mound]

If the 06Z GFS were to verify and 90L (future Alberto) make landfall in the U.S. as a hurricane on 28 May, the storm would be the earliest such seasonal occurrence known. Since 1851, the earliest hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. during the calendar year was Cat-1 Alma (1966), which struck on 9 June. However, preliminary reanalysis has found that a Cat-2 hurricane struck on 28 May 1863. So Alberto-to-be might tie that event as the earliest in to occur in a season, but certainly would not be nearly as intense. Interestingly, both Alma and the 1863 hurricane made landfall very close to Apalachicola, FL.

Edit: Thanks to whoever moved my post to the appropriate thread.

[txwatcher91]

I am a bit surprised the overnight models have gone more bullish with all of the shear in the GOM and the last 06Z GFS run shifted considerably west. I am guessing since 90L is more organized right now than models previously thought, the models are responding accordingly. Blend of ECMWF and GFS looks to be the best track at this point.

It appears models are trying to develop an anticyclone over 90L as it moves into the GOM. If this verifies it would likely provide a 24-48 hour window for some steady intensification, especially if it passes right over the loop current where the SST's are quite warm and deep.

[WeatherEmperor]

A closer look at the 06Z Navgem




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[Alyono]

I am a bit surprised the overnight models have gone more bullish with all of the shear in the GOM and the last 06Z GFS run shifted considerably west. I am guessing since 90L is more organized right now than models previously thought, the models are responding accordingly. Blend of ECMWF and GFS looks to be the best track at this point.

Think the agreement is the system is underneath the upper low, which is an area of very low shear

[Steve]

That's exactly right 91. Yesterday, some of the local tv stations were showing the upper flow on their in-house products, and the shear backs off west and basically splits an alleyway where 90L comes up through. It's a much lower shear zone with some of the shear to the north becoming positioned in such a way as to vent. I'm not saying this is going to happen, just that's what the upper flow looked like in those outputs. But there's a fairly good chance that by Sunday or Monday, we have a much better looking and more concentric system than anyone was talking about all week. It's still likely to be somewhat lopsided, but even money the radar and satellite presentations aren't what people have been saying it was going to look like. I think even the global models "IR/Radar outputs" are starting to latch onto that idea as well.

[ouragans]

12z Best Track:

Location: 19.3°N 88.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb

That's weird. I generally use TropicalAtlantic to read Best Track data and it says there was no update since 6z...

EDIT: TropicalTidbits says "There are currently no invests in any ocean basin."

[Steve]

I wonder why they even still use the NAVGEM. I guess it's statistically better than flipping coins, but it's become one of the worst models in any of the suite. Rarely does it lead the pack with trends, and it's probably been 20 years or so since it scored highly. Even in the tropics, I'd take the NAM over it - particularly after the NAM led the way showing a future extreme Harvey when even the top globals had nearly dissipated it coming off the Yucatan. Blind squirrel meeting a nut or improvement? Who knows.

Speaking of the NAM, it's out to 33 hours and seemingly emerging off the Yucatan. We'll see where it goes for 84.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2412&fh=27

[SoupBone]

This kinda reminds me of Cindy last year, and Bill in 2015. Could this drift all the way to SW LA or TX?

Same here.. I would not rule it out.

You're saying you wouldn't rule out Texas?

[ava_ati]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/999655972384714753

[gatorcane]

VIS loop. I have a feeling a lot of discussion will be upcoming over the next couple of days about whether the center is relocating under the deeper convection over the Yucatan channel:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

I see we have multiple vorts around.. lol last nights all died. looks like convection is about to spit out another one.. soo we wait..

[Aric Dunn]

Also a bunch of mid level dry air has been pulled in from the west again. so today may be a little slow with convection. Except for another round of land convection producing more vorts later...

[psyclone]

Well it would seem that based on trends the steady rains should remain west of peninsular florida so hopefully we can salvage our holiday weekend to some degree. with a stout southeast wind we should still see plenty of convection converging on the west coast though...so duck and cover space will be a requirement. Doesn't look like our low is in any hurry to move and the convection is firing over lots of deep warm water in the Yucatan channel

[Aric Dunn]

Nam barely makes it passed the central gulf before turning W to wsw and is quite a bit stronger..

[boca]

I am not canceling my outdoor plans here in SE Florida the storm will be too far away from this part of the state.

[SoupBone]

This kinda reminds me of Cindy last year, and Bill in 2015. Could this drift all the way to SW LA or TX?

Same here.. I would not rule it out.

You're saying you wouldn't rule out Texas?

Aric, what indicators are you seeing that would not rule out a Texas impact?

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2412&fh=84


stronger ridge by the nam

[Aric Dunn]

Same here.. I would not rule it out.

You're saying you wouldn't rule out Texas?

Aric, what indicators are you seeing that would not rule out a Texas impact?

Stronger ridging building in. and no long wave trough to pick it up. the ICON model and others have hinted at the idea. however, if it were to happen it would likely only be a weak low pressure.

[ronjon]

Well it would seem that based on trends the steady rains should remain west of peninsular florida so hopefully we can salvage our holiday weekend to some degree. with a stout southeast wind we should still see plenty of convection converging on the west coast though...so duck and cover space will be a requirement. Doesn't look like our low is in any hurry to move and the convection is firing over lots of deep warm water in the Yucatan channel

it's a lopsided system that's broad so it may not be the case - we could still see heavy rains along the Fl west coast perhaps 30-50 miles inland - we'll see. It could be a redo of Debbie in 2012.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/tropical-storm-debby-generates-incredible-rainfall-over-north-florida/2012/06/26/gJQAnzJP4V_blog.html?utm_term=.068c92777281