ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Steve]

May have to cut the Texas trip a little short.

That Euro run looks like some trouble. Idk. As for the UKMET, it is good sometimes but is often a loner/outlier. It’s best effort, by far, was Ivan 2004 Part 2. That will go down in history as one of the most unique scenarios ever caught by a model. Landfalls around Pensacola, will come up through the SEUS up to the mid-Atlantic, come offshore and get pushed back down and around Florida and into the western gulf. That was good. The 12Z today, not so much.

[Alyono]

EC has the pressure down to 984mb at landfall

[CrazyC83]

I'm seeing on some models as well that the system doesn't want to get very far inland after landfall. That would be a major rainmaker for a large area.

[stormlover2013]

once we have a center we will get a better graps, models will keep us wavering......one thing i do notice is the ridge is pretty strong and has gotten stronger each run from the CMC, GFS, ICON, Euro

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 19.6°N 88.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM

[stormlover2013]

we won't till saturday, main factor is going to be where does the center form....with it being on land and etc u never know it makes a big difference

[CrazyC83]

once we have a center we will get a better graps, models will keep us wavering......one thing i do notice is the ridge is pretty strong and has gotten stronger each run from the CMC, GFS, ICON, Euro

If the ridge keeps strengthening, this may not even make it to landfall, it might just get stuck in the northern Gulf. Upwelling would hurt it in that situation.

[Aric Dunn]

At 925 mb .. 93 mph or about 75 to 80mph.

[cycloneye]

18z model suite:

[txwatcher91]

EC has the pressure down to 984mb at landfall

Weather.us has it down to 983mb at peak strength... with such a large wind field that would probably be a 60-70mph TS but if we get the HWRF pressure of 966mb we could see a Cat 1 with a good bit of surge to go with it. Seems upper level shear may really drop off once this gets into the GOM and develops.

[CrazyC83]

The HMON may be on to something track-wise?

I do think timing is key. The path inland closes by late Monday or early Tuesday (the ECMWF takes the last train out of the station) as the ridge rebuilds - a slower system would be more likely to get trapped in the northern Gulf or near the Louisiana coast.

[Aric Dunn]

The HMON may be on to something track-wise?

I do think timing is key. The path inland closes by late Monday or early Tuesday (the ECMWF takes the last train out of the station) as the ridge rebuilds - a slower system would be more likely to get trapped in the northern Gulf or near the Louisiana coast.

yeah, ICON did that last night just a little farther south never made landfall. its possible.

I mean they all seem to be trending that way...

[stormlover2013]

Crazy,you think that could happen ?

[CrazyC83]

Crazy,you think that could happen ?

It's very possible. If the ridge rebuilds, it can't go north. It would either be forced west (and not very fast!) or stall out near the coast or offshore. The ECMWF weakens the ridge just enough to keep it moving inland slowly, but other models largely stall it out in southern LA/MS. A stronger ridge would keep it offshore entirely.

Not too many storms in the Gulf fail to make landfall. But all it would take is a quick burst of shear, since it would be upwelling like crazy if it stalls out. It needs to keep moving to intensify.

[boca]

I can’t imagine this ruining the entire weekend with that track with the models especially in South Florida, I have a bbq on Monday and not canceling as of now.

[caneman]

May have to cut the Texas trip a little short.

That Euro run looks like some trouble. Idk. As for the UKMET, it is good sometimes but is often a loner/outlier. It’s best effort, by far, was Ivan 2004 Part 2. That will go down in history as one of the most unique scenarios ever caught by a model. Landfalls around Pensacola, will come up through the SEUS up to the mid-Atlantic, come offshore and get pushed back down and around Florida and into the western gulf. That was good. The 12Z today, not so much.

Hey Steve. Hope you are well. Ukmet performed remarkable with Irma as well. Stay safe

[gatorcane]

Looks like the LLC might be getting a slight tug to the east (as forecasted by a couple of models)? Shear really ripping into this as the moment:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the LLC might be getting a slight tug to the east (as forecasted by a couple of models)? Shear really ripping into this as the moment:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

There are multiple vorts. there is one just offshore moving north.. the one you mentioned is moving S.. there is another north of there moving west. extrapolate to the center of the gyre and its just inland. for now. though the vort right near the coast isnow building convection with it. so it may take over. who knows .. though with the shear more likely is that it will get spit out as well later.

[PSUHiker31]

Now is a good time to remind everyone that global models usually don't resolve the maximum wind speed due to resolution

[PSUHiker31]

Is anyone else having trouble with satellite loops on NHC site?