ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[txwatcher91]

3km nam is a monster. Likely overdone but here it is...

[SunnyThoughts]

I certainly hope that is in no way an indication of the rest of the model runs this evening.

And thanks Adam for answering my question earlier.

[toad strangler]

3km nam is a monster. Likely overdone but here it is...

LOL

[Aric Dunn]

well lets see if everything follows suit with the NAM again.. hurricane into NO..

[Aric Dunn]

if that upper trough cuts off like it is forecast too.. we could see minimal hurricane.. not a cat 4 lol. but the Synoptics from the NAM are very interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON similar to the last 2 runs of it. the stronger ridging again seems to have little effect.

[txwatcher91]

if that upper trough cuts off like it is forecast too.. we could see minimal hurricane.. not a cat 4 lol. but the Synoptics from the NAM are very interesting.

I’m a bit concerned now regarding intensity. We’ve seen the Euro gradually showing s stronger storm, NAM a strong one and GFS earlier today as well. Most models intensify this right up to landfall and down to 980-985mb range. With the warm loop current it will likely pass over... I can see a sub 970mb pressure if the LLC consolidates the next 24 hours over the open waters.

[NotSparta]

TCFA issued.

WTNT21 KNGU 242330
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 88.2W TO 25.1N 87.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 242000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 88.2W. THE
SYSTEM IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL
WITH WINDS OF 30 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPEMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FORM WHILE THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252330Z.//

[Bocadude85]

ICON similar to the last 2 runs of it. the stronger ridging again seems to have little effect.

ICON seems to be a bit farther east then the 18z from what I can see, but I can only see up to the 69 hour point.

[Aric Dunn]

if that upper trough cuts off like it is forecast too.. we could see minimal hurricane.. not a cat 4 lol. but the Synoptics from the NAM are very interesting.

I’m a bit concerned now regarding intensity. We’ve seen the Euro gradually showing s stronger storm, NAM a strong one and GFS earlier today as well. Most models intensify this right up to landfall and down to 980-985mb range. With the warm loop current it will likely pass over... I can see a sub 970mb pressure if the LLC consolidates the next 24 hours over the open waters.

I mean at least right now.. the idea of it being in that "sweet Spot" is looking like a possibility. but a lot still has to come together for that to happen. namely the upper trough if it does not cut off then we will have a sheared mess the entire time and maybe a 50 to 60 mph TS. only time will tell. as that upper trough evolves we will know more.. so watch the upper water vapor !

[toad strangler]

if that upper trough cuts off like it is forecast too.. we could see minimal hurricane.. not a cat 4 lol. but the Synoptics from the NAM are very interesting.

I’m a bit concerned now regarding intensity. We’ve seen the Euro gradually showing s stronger storm, NAM a strong one and GFS earlier today as well. Most models intensify this right up to landfall and down to 980-985mb range. With the warm loop current it will likely pass over... I can see a sub 970mb pressure if the LLC consolidates the next 24 hours over the open waters.

It’s times like these that you trust climo. Modeling has always struggled mightily with intensity

[latitude_20]

Tulum, Mexico reporting in. Very rainy morning. Cloudy and humid throughout the day today, thundershowers just picked back up in the last two hours. The tree frogs are going bananas in the jungle next to me.

Buenas Noches,
Lat 20 out

[AdamFirst]

A question: This is the first I've seen of the ICON model. Is this a new one entirely, or a rename? And can it be trusted for tropical weather?

[txwatcher91]

if that upper trough cuts off like it is forecast too.. we could see minimal hurricane.. not a cat 4 lol. but the Synoptics from the NAM are very interesting.

I’m a bit concerned now regarding intensity. We’ve seen the Euro gradually showing s stronger storm, NAM a strong one and GFS earlier today as well. Most models intensify this right up to landfall and down to 980-985mb range. With the warm loop current it will likely pass over... I can see a sub 970mb pressure if the LLC consolidates the next 24 hours over the open waters.

It’s times like these that you trust climo. Modeling has always struggled mightily with intensity

But climo is not always right. No one thought we would have so many cat 5 hurricanes last year but we did... when the Euro and Nam both show a period of steady to quick deepening it catches my eye. GFS is rolling let’s see what it does.

[Dean4Storms]

Not liking this intensity trend one bit by some of these models.

[toad strangler]

I’m a bit concerned now regarding intensity. We’ve seen the Euro gradually showing s stronger storm, NAM a strong one and GFS earlier today as well. Most models intensify this right up to landfall and down to 980-985mb range. With the warm loop current it will likely pass over... I can see a sub 970mb pressure if the LLC consolidates the next 24 hours over the open waters.

It’s times like these that you trust climo. Modeling has always struggled mightily with intensity

But climo is not always right. No one thought we would have so many cat 5 hurricanes last year but we did... when the Euro and Nam both show a period of steady to quick deepening it catches my eye. GFS is rolling let’s see what it does.

We are talking about MAY climo. Not SEPTEMBER climo. Gigantic difference.

[txwatcher91]

A question: This is the first I've seen of the ICON model. Is this a new one entirely, or a rename? And can it be trusted for tropical weather?

It’s the German model. I’ve followed it a few years for winter storms and it is hit or miss. Sometimes it is brilliant and other times it can be the worst model... For tropical weather the little bit I’ve followed it I’ve not been impressed with it. I much prefer NAM, Euro and GFS blend inside 84 hours.

[SunnyThoughts]

And the Icon heads the system towards Louisiana, then does a loop and goes back East into Mobile Bay? heh

[txwatcher91]

It’s times like these that you trust climo. Modeling has always struggled mightily with intensity

But climo is not always right. No one thought we would have so many cat 5 hurricanes last year but we did... when the Euro and Nam both show a period of steady to quick deepening it catches my eye. GFS is rolling let’s see what it does.

We are talking about MAY climo. Not SEPTEMBER clomp. Gigantic difference.

It doesn’t matter, September climo doesn’t favor multiple cat 5s but it happened. Point is the models are tools and to be used as such. The Euro and NAM showing a storm that deepens quickly up until landfall, possibly sub 980mb, is worth considering as a possibility. The shear charts show an anticyclone developing providing nice outflow and reducing shear dramatically. The loop current is plenty warm at 27-29C as well. May climo says there should be 50kts of shear to rip this apart but if modeling is correct it will be very low and favor steady intensification...

[Alyono]

if that upper trough cuts off like it is forecast too.. we could see minimal hurricane.. not a cat 4 lol. but the Synoptics from the NAM are very interesting.

I’m a bit concerned now regarding intensity. We’ve seen the Euro gradually showing s stronger storm, NAM a strong one and GFS earlier today as well. Most models intensify this right up to landfall and down to 980-985mb range. With the warm loop current it will likely pass over... I can see a sub 970mb pressure if the LLC consolidates the next 24 hours over the open waters.

parallel euro, which should be operational in a couple of weeks, only had about 996mb