ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1061 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 25, 2018 11:00 am

Fantastic view from GOES-16.

@NOAASatellitePA
UPDATE: NOAA's #GOES16 (#GOESEast) continues to closely monitor Subtropical Storm #Alberto this morning, May 25, 2018. This is the first, named #storm GOES-16 has captured as an officially operational satellite.


 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/1000039344059625477


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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1062 Postby Frank P » Fri May 25, 2018 11:02 am

GFS 983mb at NOLA in 90 hours, then bumps a tad to the NE to hit the MS Coast... a little Friday afternoon lagniappe for all the Who Dat fans... :D
Last edited by Frank P on Fri May 25, 2018 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1063 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri May 25, 2018 11:03 am

GFS 982mb in NOLA... very likely a hurricane at that point.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1064 Postby NDG » Fri May 25, 2018 11:03 am

12z GFS landfall Plaquemines Parish LA into St Bernard Parish.

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ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1065 Postby txwatcher91 » Fri May 25, 2018 11:03 am

Something I haven't seen much discussion of but certainly worth noting is the fairly large wind field models are indicating with Alberto. Here at landfall the GFS is indicating a strong TS or minimal hurricane with a large area of TS force winds. An area of TS winds like this would push a good bit of water up into the surge prone areas along the coast.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1066 Postby gatorcane » Fri May 25, 2018 11:04 am

OK so I have to give props to the ECMWF here. Look at where it had the system on the 00Z run on May 19th (first image, yes 5 days ago!) compared to what it is showing today on the last 00Z run. The model accuracy can be incredibly impressive, another coupe for the ECMWF and its ensembles.

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Re: ATL: Breaking News: NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Alberto at 11 AM EDT

#1067 Postby flamingosun » Fri May 25, 2018 11:06 am

Patrick99 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Hmmm? Jump straight to T.S.? Must be a holiday week-end lol! (That, or a lot of really pissed off and seasick passengers on that Carnival ship!)


It has probably been quite the few hours for those passengers. I've been on large cruise ships in rough seas, and they start to rock and roll pretty significantly. I tend to enjoy when that happens, as it really rocks me to sleep in a way that just can never happen on land. I also enjoy watching the top deck pools violently slosh back and forth. Some people really can't handle the movement well, though.

I guess the NHC had a good deal of respect for that ship report after all.


I don't know about Carnival Cruise Line, but Royal Caribbean Cruises has its own Chief Meteorologist.
Rerouting multiple ships to calmer seas and open ports that are out of danger is no small task... With multiple ships per line, and hundreds to thousands of crew and passengers per ship, and lists of port closures changing with the progress of a storm as well as safe passage to those ports, well it has to be quite a logistical challenge.
Passenger ships really need reliable weather instruments to stay abreast of the latest and most accurate information possible. I don't think it's considered an option.
Last edited by flamingosun on Fri May 25, 2018 11:43 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1068 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 25, 2018 11:08 am

JB's take on GFS:

@BigJoeBastardi
Amazing watching the GFS from an amusement point of view run after run of feedback fairy problems into s FLA, now is FURTHER WEST than euro which has always aimed at central gulf coast. It is seeing our worry about intensification tho, now down to 987 Busy weekend
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1069 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 25, 2018 11:08 am

txwatcher91 wrote:Something I haven't seen much discussion of but certainly worth noting is the fairly large wind field models are indicating with Alberto. Here at landfall the GFS is indicating a strong TS or minimal hurricane with a large area of TS force winds. An area of TS winds like this would push a good bit of water up into the surge prone areas along the coast.


You are correct about that. Even a strong tropical storm would likely bring enough surge to require warnings east of the center.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1070 Postby Florida1118 » Fri May 25, 2018 11:09 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:Another westward shift by the GFS, now just south of the mouth of the MS River by hr 66.


Amazing what happens when the feed back issues go away lol


The issue definitely didn't go away, they're pretty evident hr 36 and hr 42.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1071 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri May 25, 2018 11:11 am

Double Barrel Low At hr 42 and it picks the more NW center. would it likely really have 2 centers after being a system for 2 days?

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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1072 Postby Frank P » Fri May 25, 2018 11:11 am

The GFS is now basically where the Euro was aiming at consistently several days ago... and although the last day of Euro runs were a slight shift towards the MS/AL line... gotta give the Euro cudos for at least being in the same ballpark all week long... thus far...
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1073 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 25, 2018 11:13 am

@TropicalTidbits
North of #Alberto's low-level center, mid-level westerly flow exists, suggesting that the mid-level center is somewhere near the convection to the NE. This may foreshadow a center-jump later.
Practically, this is expected, and is just the next step in the storm's organization.


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1000025626693324800


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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1074 Postby NDG » Fri May 25, 2018 11:16 am

Florida1118 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:Another westward shift by the GFS, now just south of the mouth of the MS River by hr 66.


Amazing what happens when the feed back issues go away lol


The issue definitely didn't go away, they're pretty evident hr 36 and hr 42.


The difference during the past couple of runs is that it keeps a stronger circulation with a couple of vortices rotating around it until windshear subsides after 36 hrs and the system becomes more organized, that is a lot more believable.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1075 Postby caneman » Fri May 25, 2018 11:22 am

cycloneye wrote:@TropicalTidbits
North of #Alberto's low-level center, mid-level westerly flow exists, suggesting that the mid-level center is somewhere near the convection to the NE. This may foreshadow a center-jump later.
Practically, this is expected, and is just the next step in the storm's organization.


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1000025626693324800




Would that mean more shifts East or have the models accounted for that happening?
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1076 Postby ROCK » Fri May 25, 2018 11:22 am

Frank P wrote:The GFS is now basically where the Euro was aiming at consistently several days ago... and although the last day of Euro runs were a slight shift towards the MS/AL line... gotta give the Euro cudos for at least being in the same ballpark all week long... thus far...


Euro has been WAY more consistent than the jacked up GFS of late. Yep kudos.. 8-)
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1077 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri May 25, 2018 11:23 am

The old center is moving NE now toward the convection. Could the jump be happening now?
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1078 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri May 25, 2018 11:24 am

12z UKMET shifted west, but not significantly, and remains the eastern outlier.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

#1079 Postby MississippiWx » Fri May 25, 2018 11:24 am

caneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:@TropicalTidbits
North of #Alberto's low-level center, mid-level westerly flow exists, suggesting that the mid-level center is somewhere near the convection to the NE. This may foreshadow a center-jump later.
Practically, this is expected, and is just the next step in the storm's organization.


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1000025626693324800




Would that mean more shifts East or have the models accounted for that happening?



Read the last part of Levi’s tweet.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models

#1080 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 25, 2018 11:25 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:12z UKMET shifted west, but not significantly, and remains the eastern outlier.


How is the intensity?
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