ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[stormhunter7]

i dont see anything alarming in the 00z data to warrant a hurricane watch in the 5am package?

[Sciencerocks]

i dont see anything alarming in the 00z data to warrant a hurricane watch in the 5am package?

Is there any current justification for the nhc to keep it a tropical storm for the 5am est package.

[USTropics]

Landfall nearly identical to the 12z run:

[bamajammer4eva]

06z update of N2FSUs post on the TVCN/Consensus that the NHC usually stays close to.-They actually stated that they were just west of it in the 10PM update

The new
forecast track is nudged a bit to the east of the previous track
during the first 36 h based on the initial position, and it lies
just to the west of the consensus models.

New 06z Consensus vs 11pm NHC track...06z is slightly back left

[Sciencerocks]

[Alyono]

overall structure has improved somewhat overnight

[Alyono]

i dont see anything alarming in the 00z data to warrant a hurricane watch in the 5am package?

the watch SHOULD be a hurricane watch. 10 kts is within the 5 year mean forecast error. Thus, hurricane conditions are clearly possible

[Hammy]

i dont see anything alarming in the 00z data to warrant a hurricane watch in the 5am package?

Is there any current justification for the nhc to keep it a tropical storm for the 5am est package.

Probably the lack of new data more than anything.

Things are getting interesting though on satellite if you watch the high-res shortwave--the winds that I pointed out earlier today that were pretty strong from the east (the area north of the LLC) are now out of the S or SSW, so it appears either a new circulation is forming south of Cuba or, at the very minimum, the current LLC is being absorbed into a larger gyre to the north and closer to the convection.

[bamajammer4eva]

[img]https://imageshack.com/a/img921/9249/4yGYiM.gif

Looks like those initial supercells of a squall line developing ahead of a cold front. We may be looking at a different picture in 24 hours though

[stormreader]

06z update of N2FSUs post on the TVCN/Consensus that the NHC usually stays close to.-They actually stated that they were just west of it in the 10PM update

The new
forecast track is nudged a bit to the east of the previous track
during the first 36 h based on the initial position, and it lies
just to the west of the consensus models.

New 06z Consensus vs 11pm NHC track...06z is slightly back left

So....translation is that a little further east early on may give way to a tad further west later as it approaches the north gulf coast. Will be interesting to see if it materializes that way.

[Twisted-core]

06z ens


https://imgur.com/Y5Kcpxe


https://imgur.com/E5o7gQx

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like that old LLC is beginning to pick up acceleration toward the north.

I agree on the Hurricane Watch, would not take much for Alberto to reach it based on guidance.

[Alyono]

6Z NAM has the vorticity mismatched with the center. It has the 850mb vort over Cuba and develops it

Worth nothing

[GumboCane83]

Is there any chance that the forecast track moves to the west?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
faster north-northeastward motion is expected later today, followed
by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is expected to move through the Yucatan Channel
today and track across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night through
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 3 to 7 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys
and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida this evening and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Alberto is not very well organized this morning. Satellite images
indicate that the low-level center is located between widespread
showers and thunderstorms well to its northeast and patches of deep
convection to its south and east. The struggling cyclone continues
to battle westerly shear and dry air. A recent ASCAT pass indicated
that winds near the center were not particularly strong. The initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt pending a sampling of
the circulation farther east by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
in a few hours. Alberto remains subtropical given its sprawling
structure and involvement with an upper-level trough.

The subtropical storm has now turned north-northeastward at an
estimated speed of 6 kt. This general motion with a increase in
forward speed is expected throughout the day today, taking the
center of Alberto through the Yucatan Channel. A turn to the
northwest is forecast on Sunday as the storm rotates around a
developing mid- to upper-level low in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Alberto is predicted to be very near the northern Gulf Coast in
about 72 hours, and should then turn northward and northeastward
when it moves inland over the eastern U.S. The models are in
fairly good agreement this cycle, but they have trended a bit faster
from previous runs. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly, and lies fairly close to the latest consensus aids.

Only slow strengthening is expected today due to the broad nature
of the system and continued influences of westerly shear and dry
air. There is an opportunity for more significant strengthening
tonight and Sunday when the shear is expected to lessen and
Alberto moves into a region of upper-level diffluence while it
remains over warm SSTs. The models also suggest that Alberto will
likely make a transition to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and
that is reflected in the official forecast below. The official
intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and is in
line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

The HMON model is now the only intensity guidance that makes
Alberto a hurricane before it reaches the coast. Although a
hurricane watch could still be required for a portion of the Gulf
Coast later today, the recent intensity guidance trends suggest
that this possibility is decreasing.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.9N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 21.6N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 24.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 26.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 28/0600Z 27.5N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 29/0600Z 30.4N 87.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 30/0600Z 33.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0600Z 38.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

[Dean4Storms]

Is there any chance that the forecast track moves to the west?

There is always a chance, however guidance has remained pretty clustered between the MS/AL border to P’Cola.

[northjaxpro]

i dont see anything alarming in the 00z data to warrant a hurricane watch in the 5am package?

Is there any current justification for the nhc to keep it a tropical storm for the 5am est package.

Probably the lack of new data more than anything.

Things are getting interesting though on satellite if you watch the high-res shortwave--the winds that I pointed out earlier today that were pretty strong from the east (the area north of the LLC) are now out of the S or SSW, so it appears either a new circulation is forming south of Cuba or, at the very minimum, the current LLC is being absorbed into a larger gyre to the north and closer to the convection.

It looks as if a newlow level circulation may be forming near the western tip of Cuba to me, unless my tired eyes are deceiving me.

[northjaxpro]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

6Z NAM has the vorticity mismatched with the center. It has the 850mb vort over Cuba and develops it

Worth nothing

It surely is worth noting. There clearly to.me is a vigorous vort near the western tip of Cuba early this morning.

[marionstorm]

If the center is just to the west of the convection to south of western-most tip of Cuba, might come a bit further east. Visible images will let us know. When is the next recon?

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS into P’Cola around 60mph TS. So I am leaning toward a Mobile Bay to Navarre, FL landfall.