ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[hipshot]

I thought that I read something about an area of high pressure approaching from the east soon. Wouldn't that have the affect of pushing Alberto
more towards the west?

[MississippiWx]

I thought that I read something about an area of high pressure approaching from the east soon. Wouldn't that have the affect of pushing Alberto
more towards the west?

High pressure along with the upper level low will slingshot the storm back northwest eventually. However, the persistent northeast movement has probably forced the models to move their eventual landfall points more and more eastward.

[MetroMike]

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1000361163954278401?s=19

Ouch that is a lot of dry air. Could it really strengthen much? Looks like a large lid over strengthening.

I have notated this too. Doubt this will ever come together. Don't know why everyone is so-fixated on where the naked swirl of a center will end up, when all the effects are well East.

[MississippiWx]

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1000361163954278401?s=19

Ouch that is a lot of dry air. Could it really strengthen much? Looks like a large lid over strengthening.

I have notated this too. Doubt this will ever come together. Don't know why everyone is so-fixated on where the naked swirl of a center will end up, when all the effects are well East.

That is incorrect. All the impacts will not be well east according to the models. It still has 3+ days before landfall and most models show the storm occluding and developing a stronger inner core. Therefore, impacts should be felt very close to where the center makes landfall. Obviously, there will be heavy rain well east too.

[AdamFirst]

As the various pro Mets have said, most of the strengthening of this storm will be when it's north of Cuba as it spins around the upper low. It's still hanging on as of now - its survival instincts have kept it going, with the center tucking in under that lone blob of storms.

A closer approach to peninsular Florida means more squally weather for the state, but I doubt the west coast is going to get sustained TS conditions.

.The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261411
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 30 20180526
140000 2032N 08515W 9249 00745 0074 +204 +181 274014 014 007 001 00
140030 2031N 08517W 9250 00745 0075 +205 +180 271014 014 008 001 03
140100 2030N 08518W 9248 00747 0075 +205 +180 269014 014 009 003 03
140130 2029N 08519W 9248 00747 0076 +204 +181 265014 014 008 002 00
140200 2027N 08520W 9249 00747 0076 +201 +184 266013 014 010 001 00
140230 2026N 08521W 9248 00749 0077 +201 +184 268013 013 008 001 00
140300 2025N 08522W 9250 00746 0078 +203 +185 269014 014 009 001 00
140330 2024N 08523W 9249 00754 0084 +202 +189 266014 014 009 001 00
140400 2023N 08524W 9248 00757 0087 +202 +189 265015 015 008 001 00
140430 2022N 08525W 9250 00757 0089 +202 +189 264015 016 010 001 00
140500 2021N 08527W 9248 00761 0090 +201 +188 268014 015 009 002 00
140530 2020N 08528W 9248 00760 0091 +200 +191 270015 015 008 001 00
140600 2019N 08529W 9249 00760 0093 +199 +193 270013 015 008 001 00
140630 2018N 08530W 9256 00754 0092 +201 +191 262012 012 007 001 00
140700 2017N 08531W 9249 00762 0093 +205 +183 259013 014 010 002 00
140730 2015N 08532W 9249 00762 0093 +205 +183 258013 014 008 001 03
140800 2014N 08533W 9249 00762 0094 +204 +184 265013 013 009 002 00
140830 2013N 08534W 9252 00761 0094 +204 +182 263013 013 008 001 00
140900 2012N 08535W 9246 00766 0094 +204 +185 262012 013 010 002 00
140930 2011N 08536W 9250 00761 0094 +202 +187 262012 012 009 003 00



000
URNT15 KNHC 261420
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 31 20180526
141000 2010N 08538W 9249 00763 0094 +204 +179 262011 012 009 002 00
141030 2009N 08539W 9250 00762 0094 +203 +180 261011 011 008 002 00
141100 2008N 08540W 9248 00763 0094 +205 +175 269010 011 007 002 03
141130 2007N 08541W 9247 00765 0095 +202 +180 272011 011 007 000 00
141200 2006N 08542W 9250 00762 0095 +201 +186 273012 012 010 002 00
141230 2004N 08543W 9249 00763 0096 +199 +191 276012 012 011 002 00
141300 2003N 08544W 9250 00762 0096 +200 +190 273012 013 007 002 00
141330 2002N 08545W 9252 00761 0095 +201 +189 271013 014 010 003 00
141400 2001N 08546W 9249 00764 0096 +200 +193 276012 013 011 002 03
141430 2000N 08548W 9247 00768 0097 +200 +192 274011 012 012 003 00
141500 1959N 08549W 9252 00762 0098 +199 +191 271011 012 008 003 03
141530 1958N 08550W 9249 00764 0096 +201 +185 271012 013 009 001 00
141600 1957N 08551W 9250 00764 0097 +200 +186 272013 013 008 000 00
141630 1956N 08552W 9250 00763 0097 +200 +188 272012 012 009 002 00
141700 1954N 08553W 9246 00768 0097 +201 +185 273012 012 009 002 00
141730 1953N 08554W 9248 00767 0096 +203 +183 271012 013 009 002 03
141800 1952N 08554W 9244 00769 0095 +203 +186 263013 014 /// /// 03
141830 1952N 08552W 9250 00767 0099 +201 +190 259013 014 008 002 00
141900 1952N 08551W 9251 00764 0098 +200 +192 262012 013 009 001 00
141930 1952N 08549W 9248 00764 0098 +203 +189 263012 013 010 004 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

Most of the 6z operational runs moved east this morning. Still feeling the ensembles are the way to go?

It's a tough call. With last year's storms, the ensembles way outperformed the operational runs. However, with a system with such a poorly-defined center or a center reforming northward, the ensembles may have a harder time with the track. Anywhere from the MS coast to near Panama City Florida is possible. I would think that the farther east it tracks, the weaker it would be (more shear).

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261430
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 32 20180526
142000 1952N 08547W 9252 00763 0098 +203 +191 266011 012 005 001 03
142030 1953N 08545W 9249 00766 0098 +201 +186 260013 013 011 002 00
142100 1953N 08544W 9250 00766 0099 +199 +193 254013 014 009 002 00
142130 1953N 08542W 9249 00766 0099 +201 +186 258014 015 011 003 03
142200 1953N 08540W 9250 00764 0100 +201 +187 255014 014 012 002 00
142230 1953N 08538W 9248 00769 0100 +200 +186 254014 014 011 003 03
142300 1953N 08536W 9249 00768 0101 +203 +181 248014 014 007 001 00
142330 1953N 08535W 9248 00769 0100 +205 +180 246015 015 007 002 00
142400 1953N 08533W 9249 00767 0099 +204 +178 249015 015 007 002 00
142430 1954N 08531W 9248 00769 0101 +202 +184 248015 015 008 002 03
142500 1954N 08529W 9250 00768 0101 +203 +181 247014 014 008 002 00
142530 1954N 08527W 9248 00771 0102 +205 +181 245014 014 009 002 00
142600 1954N 08526W 9250 00768 0101 +205 +185 243015 015 010 002 00
142630 1954N 08524W 9249 00768 0101 +204 +188 243015 016 009 002 00
142700 1954N 08522W 9249 00769 0101 +201 +192 245016 017 008 001 00
142730 1954N 08520W 9248 00769 0100 +204 +189 243016 017 008 000 03
142800 1954N 08518W 9249 00769 0100 +205 +181 240018 018 010 001 00
142830 1955N 08517W 9248 00769 0099 +207 +178 241018 019 009 001 03
142900 1955N 08515W 9249 00768 0099 +207 +177 240018 019 007 002 00
142930 1955N 08513W 9249 00768 0099 +206 +183 237019 019 009 003 03

[Dean4Storms]

Although the operational runs shifted a little east overnight, the ensembles shifted decidedly west, taking the center not far from the mouth of the Mississippi before turning north to the SE MS coast Monday evening. I would go with the ensembles rather than any track shift into Alabama or the FL Panhandle. In fact, I AM going with the ensembles on my 9am advisory. Nudged the track farther NW, closer to SE LA prior to the turn north.

Most of the 6z operational runs moved east this morning. Still feeling the ensembles are the way to go?

It's a tough call. With last year's storms, the ensembles way outperformed the operational runs. However, with a system with such a poorly-defined center or a center reforming northward, the ensembles may have a harder time with the track. Anywhere from the MS coast to near Panama City Florida is possible. I would think that the farther east it tracks, the weaker it would be (more shear).

Did note a good shift eastward with the GEFS Mean position landfall at 06z but not as far east as the OP which was over P'Cola.

[DestinHurricane]

So 51 (45 knot) mph winds?

[Noles2016]

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1000361163954278401?s=19

Ouch that is a lot of dry air. Could it really strengthen much? Looks like a large lid over strengthening.

I have notated this too. Doubt this will ever come together. Don't know why everyone is so-fixated on where the naked swirl of a center will end up, when all the effects are well East.

That is incorrect. All the impacts will not be well east according to the models. It still has 3+ days before landfall and most models show the storm occluding and developing a stronger inner core. Therefore, impacts should be felt very close to where the center makes landfall. Obviously, there will be heavy rain well east too.

Just don't see that happening with this one... feels like your typical heavily-sheared, lopsided Gulf storm...

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261440
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 33 20180526
143000 1955N 08511W 9253 00766 0102 +205 +191 238018 019 009 003 03
143030 1955N 08509W 9247 00774 0105 +205 +190 238020 020 008 003 00
143100 1955N 08507W 9250 00769 0102 +207 +185 241019 020 008 002 00
143130 1955N 08506W 9253 00767 0100 +204 +187 241019 021 008 002 00
143200 1956N 08504W 9249 00768 0099 +205 +182 239021 021 008 001 00
143230 1956N 08502W 9250 00767 0100 +204 +186 240021 022 008 002 03
143300 1956N 08500W 9250 00767 0101 +200 +189 241020 020 010 003 00
143330 1956N 08458W 9249 00767 0101 +200 +189 239020 021 006 001 00
143400 1956N 08456W 9248 00768 0100 +201 +185 238021 021 010 001 03
143430 1956N 08455W 9250 00767 0099 +202 +190 240020 021 008 002 00
143500 1956N 08453W 9249 00767 0100 +204 +187 239021 021 010 002 00
143530 1956N 08451W 9250 00767 0099 +205 +178 236021 022 008 001 00
143600 1957N 08449W 9249 00768 0100 +208 +173 234022 022 010 001 00
143630 1957N 08447W 9252 00766 0099 +209 +176 231022 023 010 001 00
143700 1957N 08445W 9246 00772 0099 +210 +172 229022 023 011 001 00
143730 1957N 08443W 9248 00769 0100 +206 +181 233021 022 009 001 00
143800 1957N 08442W 9251 00767 0101 +205 +179 230022 022 008 002 03
143830 1957N 08440W 9248 00769 0101 +205 +180 229022 022 007 002 00
143900 1957N 08438W 9250 00767 0100 +205 +179 229021 021 010 001 00
143930 1957N 08436W 9250 00768 0100 +205 +184 230021 021 010 001 00
$$

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 84.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas in the
Florida Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to Anclote River. The Tropical
Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been
extended eastward to the Aucilla River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Crystal River,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca Grande to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 84.9 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to
the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Alberto is expected to move near the western tip of Cuba this
afternoon, track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through
Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas later today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
Florida west coast on Sunday, and along the northern Gulf Coast
by Sunday night or early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida late this afternoon through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

There has been an increase in convection to the east and southeast
of the center of Alberto this morning, however, the overall
organization of the system has not changed much. Visible satellite
imagery and recent reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the
circulation is somewhat elongated and a new low-level center could
be forming just northwest of the western tip of Cuba. As suggested
by the global models there could be several re-formations of or a
discontinuity in the track of the low-level center today. Although
there have been no recent observations to support the 35-kt
intensity, the intensity is held at that value since the aircraft
has not sampled the area well east of the center and due to the
overall increase in convection.

A shortwave trough dropping southeastward over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico is expected to sharpen the larger negatively tilted trough
over the eastern Gulf, which is expected to cause the cyclone to
deepen during the next 24 to 36 hours. This trend is consistent
with the global model guidance which unanimously strengthen Alberto
through Sunday. After that time, Alberto is expected to be
co-located with the upper-level low which should result in some
decrease in shear and a possible transition to a more tropical
cyclone-like structure. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady
strengthening, but only the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance brings
Alberto near hurricane strength before landfall. Steady weakening
should occur after the center moves inland.

Alberto is moving northward to north-northeastward at about 9 kt.
The cyclone should continue on this general heading today, but it
is expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down on Sunday and
Sunday night as it interacts with the mid- to upper-level
trough/low over the Gulf. The track guidance has shifted slightly
eastward this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. The new NHC track is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
models, but it is not as far east as the UKMET or the TVCA
multi-model consensus. The eastward adjustment in the track
forecast has required the issuance of a tropical storm watch for a
portion of the west coast of Florida and an eastward nudge of the
watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday
and will continue into next week.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and
tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 21.6N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 23.8N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 26.0N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 27.4N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 29/1200Z 31.6N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 35.6N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 39.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Hurricane Andrew]

I have notated this too. Doubt this will ever come together. Don't know why everyone is so-fixated on where the naked swirl of a center will end up, when all the effects are well East.

That is incorrect. All the impacts will not be well east according to the models. It still has 3+ days before landfall and most models show the storm occluding and developing a stronger inner core. Therefore, impacts should be felt very close to where the center makes landfall. Obviously, there will be heavy rain well east too.

Just don't see that happening with this one... feels like your typical heavily-sheared, lopsided Gulf storm...

If there's one thing that everyone should have learned from last year, it's that there is no such thing as a typical anything in the tropics.

[Evil Jeremy]

Tropical storm watch issued for a chunk of the Florida west coast, including Tampa (I think)

"A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to Anclote River. The Tropical
Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been
extended eastward to the Aucilla River."

[cycloneye]

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to Anclote River. The Tropical
Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been
extended eastward to the Aucilla River.

[deltadog03]

Alberto looks awful right now. I know models strengthen this but I don’t know how much I buy into that right now. Plus that weird westerly movement in the northern gulf

[Alyono]

ensembles shifted west over night

as for the 12Z nams, they have come in quite a bit stronger. 3K nam being absurd again going with a cat 3

[DestinHurricane]

hurricane gusts

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.7N 86.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.