ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

The track guidance has shifted slightly
eastward this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. The new NHC track is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS
models, but it is not as far east as the UKMET or the TVCA
multi-model consensus. The eastward adjustment in the track
forecast has required the issuance of a tropical storm watch for a
portion of the west coast of Florida and an eastward nudge of the
watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 261450
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 34 20180526
144000 1957N 08434W 9245 00773 0101 +205 +183 229021 022 013 001 03
144030 1958N 08432W 9256 00763 0101 +206 +187 230021 022 013 001 00
144100 1958N 08431W 9248 00771 0100 +210 +181 228022 023 013 000 00
144130 1958N 08429W 9249 00769 0100 +210 +181 231023 023 012 001 00
144200 1958N 08427W 9250 00768 0099 +210 +185 228023 024 012 002 00
144230 1958N 08425W 9248 00768 0097 +206 +192 228023 024 012 001 00
144300 1958N 08423W 9250 00766 0096 +204 +193 229023 024 007 003 00
144330 1958N 08421W 9256 00761 0096 +209 +189 221023 024 011 002 00
144400 1958N 08420W 9245 00771 0096 +210 +192 222022 023 011 001 00
144430 1959N 08418W 9249 00766 0096 +207 +194 223023 023 012 001 00
144500 1959N 08416W 9249 00766 0096 +204 +200 222023 023 010 001 00
144530 1959N 08414W 9247 00767 0097 +205 +197 229024 026 014 002 01
144600 1959N 08412W 9250 00763 0095 +211 +184 227027 027 016 001 00
144630 1959N 08410W 9249 00766 0095 +212 +183 223026 027 015 000 00
144700 1959N 08409W 9252 00762 0095 +209 +192 224028 028 015 001 00
144730 1959N 08407W 9256 00761 0096 +209 +195 222027 028 016 000 00
144800 1959N 08405W 9248 00767 0096 +206 +198 226027 027 014 001 00
144830 2000N 08403W 9249 00766 0096 +207 +192 226027 027 017 001 03
144900 2000N 08401W 9250 00767 0097 +210 +182 222028 028 015 001 00
144930 2000N 08359W 9244 00771 0096 +210 +179 222028 028 014 003 00
$$

[cycloneye]

[Siker]

ensembles shifted west over night

as for the 12Z nams, they have come in quite a bit stronger. 3K nam being absurd again going with a cat 3

Guessing you’re referring to the Euro ensembles? 06z GEFS shifted east a bit.

[Kazmit]

New NHC track has Alberto coming ashore along the Alabama/Florida border.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261500
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 35 20180526
145000 2000N 08357W 9252 00764 0096 +210 +175 221028 028 017 001 00
145030 2000N 08356W 9249 00768 0097 +215 +166 220029 029 015 001 00
145100 2000N 08354W 9253 00764 0097 +214 +172 218029 029 014 001 00
145130 2000N 08352W 9248 00771 0099 +214 +176 219029 029 018 001 00
145200 2000N 08350W 9250 00768 0099 +214 +185 220030 030 017 001 03
145230 2000N 08348W 9250 00769 0100 +210 +192 221029 030 017 001 00
145300 2001N 08346W 9252 00768 0099 +211 +192 219030 031 018 001 03
145330 2001N 08344W 9249 00771 0100 +211 +191 220030 031 018 001 00
145400 2001N 08343W 9247 00772 0100 +209 +191 218030 030 019 001 00
145430 2001N 08341W 9245 00772 0099 +207 +191 221032 033 020 001 03
145500 2001N 08339W 9250 00767 0098 +209 +190 222036 037 025 000 00
145530 2001N 08337W 9246 00772 0100 +211 +191 223037 037 023 000 00
145600 2001N 08335W 9255 00766 0102 +206 +193 221035 036 022 001 00
145630 2001N 08333W 9249 00773 0104 +205 +195 223035 036 021 001 00
145700 2001N 08331W 9250 00772 0105 +203 +199 222035 037 026 008 00
145730 2002N 08329W 9246 00775 0113 +190 +190 221040 041 041 044 03
145800 2002N 08327W 9247 00772 0117 +182 +182 216041 043 045 068 00
145830 2002N 08326W 9244 00772 0114 +187 +187 225041 043 039 070 03
145900 2002N 08324W 9244 00779 0112 +198 //// 223036 043 038 036 05
145930 2002N 08322W 9266 00760 0104 +211 +208 211035 037 022 005 00

[Alyono]

ensembles shifted west over night

as for the 12Z nams, they have come in quite a bit stronger. 3K nam being absurd again going with a cat 3

Guessing you’re referring to the Euro ensembles? 06z GEFS shifted east a bit.

0Z ensembles. was surprised though at how far west ec ensembles are. I suspect that's due to the coarse resolution not depicting the center reformation properly

[Steve H.]

Yes that does include Tampa more or less like Punta Gorda up to the Suwannee. But then a gap north of that to Panama City Beach. That area is currently the closest approach to the peninsula for a Alberto.

[cycloneye]

@pppapin
Some structural changes beginning with #STC #Alberto this morning. While convection is still asymmetric, it is firing closer to the center as it begins accelerating NE. Should help to tighten its vortex as it gets pulled over #Cuba or a new center may form within the convection.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1000386366092427264

[Evil Jeremy]

First cone vs the fifth and current cone:

[wxman57]

Careful interpolating between the 8am Mon and 8am Tue points on the NHC track. It could be tracking through Mobile Bay vs. connecting the points with a straight line which points at Pensacola (or the FL/AL border). It will be making a curve prior to landfall - NW then north.

[BobHarlem]

Careful interpolating between the 8am Mon and 8am Tue points on the NHC track. It could be tracking through Mobile Bay vs. connecting the points with a straight line which points at Pensacola (or the FL/AL border). It will be making a curve prior to landfall - NW then north.

Probably nitpicking at this point, but from discussion
"The track guidance has shifted slightly eastward this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new NHC track is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models, but it is not as far east as the UKMET or the TVCA multi-model consensus. The eastward adjustment in the track forecast has required the issuance of a tropical storm watch for a portion of the west coast of Florida and an eastward nudge of the watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle."

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261510
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 36 20180526
150000 2002N 08320W 9243 00780 0104 +210 +208 207036 037 019 000 00
150030 2002N 08318W 9249 00774 0104 +210 +208 205036 037 014 002 03
150100 2003N 08317W 9240 00782 //// +210 //// 201034 036 /// /// 05
150130 2005N 08317W 9250 00772 //// +210 //// 198033 034 012 002 01
150200 2006N 08318W 9252 00772 0103 +210 +208 199033 033 014 003 01
150230 2007N 08320W 9249 00774 0103 +210 +207 202033 033 017 001 03
150300 2008N 08321W 9250 00772 0102 +208 +207 200033 033 017 003 01
150330 2009N 08322W 9248 00772 0101 +209 +205 199036 036 021 002 00
150400 2009N 08322W 9248 00772 0100 +209 //// 196035 036 023 002 01
150430 2011N 08325W 9240 00786 0109 +209 //// 201034 038 026 008 01
150500 2013N 08326W 9259 00766 0109 +196 +196 209031 035 035 062 00
150530 2014N 08328W 9243 00771 0106 +187 +187 212033 038 041 062 03
150600 2015N 08329W 9232 00783 0100 +199 +198 199032 033 043 051 00
150630 2016N 08330W 9258 00760 0096 +208 +207 202028 031 026 006 00
150700 2017N 08331W 9247 00769 //// +205 //// 198029 030 016 002 01
150730 2018N 08333W 9245 00771 0097 +207 +201 202029 030 014 002 03
150800 2019N 08334W 9249 00766 0094 +213 +195 203031 031 016 001 00
150830 2020N 08335W 9250 00763 0092 +216 +192 205030 031 015 002 03
150900 2022N 08336W 9249 00766 0092 +217 +191 207027 029 014 001 00
150930 2023N 08338W 9252 00762 0093 +215 +188 211028 028 014 002 00
$$

[Nimbus]

I'm not sure of the likelihood of sustained tropical storm winds for the Tampa Bay area, but there are often destructive down bursts in squall lines, Auntie Em Auntie Em.

[shortwave1]

Just based off satellite, se (main vort) still rotating around a broader low with another vort to its northwest poking out. Unless the trough is less negatively tilted than predicted and the bermuda high weaker, predicted tracks seems fine, It's just a matter of consolidation and dry air

[tailgater]

I'm interested to see if the swirl north of the western tip of Cuba is working it's way to the surface.

[psyclone]

Yes that does include Tampa more or less like Punta Gorda up to the Suwannee. But then a gap north of that to Panama City Beach. That area is currently the closest approach to the peninsula for a Alberto.

Anclote river is extreme northern Pinellas county (tarpon springs)...so the watch on the west coast covers the Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte county coastlines... The Suwannee is much farther north...marking the border between Levy and Dixie Counties.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261520
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 37 20180526
151000 2024N 08339W 9249 00765 0093 +210 +184 211027 028 017 001 00
151030 2025N 08340W 9248 00766 0095 +210 +190 210026 027 016 002 03
151100 2026N 08342W 9246 00767 0093 +210 +194 210026 027 020 000 03
151130 2027N 08343W 9252 00762 0094 +212 +191 209026 026 017 001 00
151200 2028N 08344W 9249 00763 0093 +209 +195 213026 026 015 002 00
151230 2029N 08345W 9241 00772 //// +202 //// 204026 028 017 001 05
151300 2031N 08347W 9254 00758 0093 +208 +195 211025 026 014 002 00
151330 2032N 08348W 9246 00766 0092 +205 +200 212025 026 017 003 03
151400 2033N 08349W 9245 00766 0093 +200 +197 212026 027 018 003 05
151430 2034N 08350W 9250 00760 0091 +207 +202 213024 027 018 003 00
151500 2035N 08352W 9252 00760 0093 +202 //// 219025 026 016 003 05
151530 2036N 08353W 9253 00756 0090 +205 +199 228024 025 016 001 00
151600 2037N 08354W 9246 00763 0090 +208 +196 225024 024 016 001 03
151630 2038N 08355W 9252 00757 0088 +210 +196 222024 025 014 001 00
151700 2039N 08356W 9250 00758 0088 +210 +197 222024 024 013 001 00
151730 2040N 08358W 9249 00758 0088 +210 +198 222024 025 012 003 00
151800 2042N 08359W 9249 00760 0088 +208 +196 224025 025 015 003 00
151830 2043N 08400W 9250 00757 0087 +209 +194 229023 024 017 001 03
151900 2044N 08401W 9250 00758 0088 +210 +195 230024 024 014 002 00
151930 2045N 08403W 9250 00757 0088 +209 +193 233025 025 015 002 00

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm interested to see if the swirl north of the western tip of Cuba is working it's way to the surface.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... c1933c.jpg

From the NHC discussion:

"Visible satellite
imagery and recent reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the
circulation is somewhat elongated and a new low-level center could
be forming just northwest of the western tip of Cuba."