ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[slamdaddy]

Not trying to be a chucklehead...but model data is as of the model time. 1200Z run is information accumulated as of that time. so the 1200Z run was as of 7AM CDT or 8AM CDT. not sure if this has any bearing on the center reformation that was discovered around 10AM CDT.

The euro initialized near the new center location.

So I guess the EURO knew where the center was then. Good deal.

[alienstorm]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/#/ani ... javascript

If you look at this loop it looks almost stationary with some southerly shear. But overall it is starting to get a bit more tropical.

[SunnyThoughts]

ECM into Navarre with center.....Wind gusts from P'Cola to PCB 60-70mph!

Just hope gusts dont get any more intense than that. All the visitors we have on this holiday weekend along the NW Fla coast are gonna be in for a blow, many of which have probably never been through a tropical storm.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think someone posted the 2pm advisory. That alberto is moving north at 13mph. Pretty hard to see on visible the movement but does look like he's trying to become true tropical. If there is such a word.

[tolakram]

Here's a 3 hour gust GIF. I am not sure how well the euro verifies with these maps but it appears winds will be increasing significantly over the keys and southern Florida (both coasts) during the next 24 hours.

[SouthDadeFish]

The overall low-level cyclonic turning looks much more well-defined. I even see a secondary convective burst to the NW of the center now. Definitely a much improved structure than earlier this morning. Nonetheless, the storm is still highly asymmetric and will have to continue to battle shear and dry air.

[aperson]

Alberto is now in a region where shear and SSTs support development of a hurricane given enough time.




The recent trend that adds more of an eastern bend in models would put Alberto through more hostile shear and SSTs which should result in weaker solutions.

[caneman]

I was looking back at the Euro runs and looks like it has shifted like 300-400 miles to the east on its closest approach to Florida from runs just a couple of days ago. The UKMET looks like it is going to nail the track on this storm. Props to that model.

Indeed and with its success last year is now a model to pay heed to. Fairly good job by GFS at least early on in predicting the multiple vorticies as well and with the eastern trend

[tropicwatch]

The new NESDIS sites are terrible. Satellite views are a couple of hours old now.

[caneman]

With the new center forming, I think the threat to the Florida Peninsula has increased. Looking more tropical with the convection located near the center. Appears to be becoming better organized. Interesting what next recon mission reveals......MGC

How does the reformation incidate a larger threat to the Florida peninsula? I figured since the reformatIon was a little bit west, it would perhaps add just a little distance to the peninsula, not end up bringing it closer. Or are you referring to stronger effects in the outer bands?

There is still supposed to be an eastern trending movement. The mechanism that would take it west would occur later since it's also moving faster

[p1nheadlarry]

ECMWF being weaker is a good thing. Trends are as positive as they can be. Regardless, looks like models showing a good amount of rain. Hopefully, shear does not let up.

Maybe because it is further east, where the waters aren't as warm

[tolakram]

Saved loop. I don't think it's done reforming / skipping around.

[NDG]

My current view right now, Venice Beach, been lucky so far with mostly light rain since this morning but tonight and tomorrow morning will be a different story by the way the models are trending.
Gulf is still not rough in our side of the storm because of offshore winds.

[Ivanhater]

Probably another jump after this last run of models. First time seeing towering storms wrapping around NW side..perhaps a sign of weakening shear and upper trough cutting off

[marionstorm]

Saved loop. I don't think it's done reforming / skipping around.

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/spUPAeO.gif[/img]

Where do you see signs of it reforming?

[tolakram]

Saved loop. I don't think it's done reforming / skipping around.

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/spUPAeO.gif[/img]

Where do you see signs of it reforming?

I don't, but the models predict a very chaotic center for the next 12 hours. It doesn't look that well defined to me, but I'm not a forecaster.

[Ivanhater]

You are right..models still show a tug to the NE tonight. All models then show building high pressure from the east turning this NW tomorrow...then a gradual curve north toward landfall

[NotSparta]

Saved loop. I don't think it's done reforming / skipping around.

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/spUPAeO.gif[/img]

Where do you see signs of it reforming?

I don't, but the models predict a very chaotic center for the next 12 hours. It doesn't look that well defined to me, but I'm not a forecaster.

Neither am I, but this 999mb low is stronger than the old 1006mb low, so it is less vulnerable to these things. I think it gets pulled around erratically, but a full center reformation would be difficult with this newer lol, imo.

[tropicwatch]

Sent the NESDIS webmaster an email about the sat images. This was the reply:
Dear sir, the CONUS images are current, but views based on the full disk satellite images have not been updated for a few hours. We are working on restarting image production.

Thank you for your patience.

I will be monitoring the site through the day.

Sincerely,

Lori Brown

[DestinHurricane]

Should there be hurricane watches at 5 pm advisory