ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[tailgater]

18Z Nam has some nasty weather hitting the West coast of Fla.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2018052618/nam_mslp_pcpn_watl_5.png

[cycloneye]

From Tampa NWS AFD:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
355 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...Stormy With Locally Heavy Rain And Flooding Possible Through The
Holiday Weekend...
...Hazardous Marine And Beach Conditions Through The Holiday
Weekend...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Sunday)...
Tropical moisture being advected northward from Sub-Tropical Storm
Alberto will keep a moist and unstable environment over the region
for the next 36 hours. TS Alberto is located just to the west of
Cuba and is expected to move north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico
moving west of Florida on Sunday and approaching the northern gulf
coast by Monday. The primary effects we will see from this storm in
west central and southwest Florida will be heavy rainfall, isolated
thunderstorms, gusty winds, and dangerous marine conditions. More on
that in the marine discussion.

Currently, light rainshowers continue to spread over west central
and southwest Florida as well as the gulf coast waters. Latest radar
imagery is showing the bands of showers spreading from southern
Floriida and approaching the Nature Coast with only a few ticks of
lightning inside embedded thunderstorms primarily over the gulf
coast waters. The 18Z afternoon upper air sounding is continuing to
show abundant moisture with a PWAT of 1.92 inches. The afternoon
sounding is also showing a thick layer of east through southeast
winds from 500MB and below which will drive a southeast to northwest
shower/storm movement through the day. Latest HRRR guidance is
showing a persistent coverage of rainfall continuing through the
evening hours and into Sunday morning. It looks as if most of this
will be light-moderate rainshowers with a few embedded
thunderstorms. Zone forecasts and coastal forecasts will be updated
based off the next TS advisory around 21Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night - Saturday)...
During Sunday night into Monday subtropical storm Alberto will be
moving north over the eastern Gulf, with the current official
forecast track from NHC moving Alberto onshore along the northern
Gulf coast late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Abundant
tropical moisture (PW's aoa 2 inches) streaming north into the
region on a deep layered southerly wind flow on the eastern side of
Alberto will maintain high rain chances (Pops in the 60 to 80
percent range) across the entire forecast area through Wednesday,
with numerous to widespread showers and isolated storms (additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible Mon-Wed) expected each
day, along with heavy rainfall which will continue the threat for
both areal and river flooding problems across the region, especially
in areas which see the training of the showers and storms.

[gatorcane]

Piles of rain here in SE Florida as bands rotate through.

[tropicwatch]

Circulation looking pretty good. You can see lower clouds moving east to west under the sheared clouds.

[stormhunter7]

I am not sure the movement is truly 13 mph to north. i think its slowed a little. Maybe in the 7-9mph range?

[tropicwatch]

Panama City Radar and Beach Cam Combo
http://tropicwatch.info/radar.html

[cycloneye]

Who wants to volunteer to post the data of the evening mission?

[Florabamaman]

I'm in Santa Rosa County, Fl, just East of P'cola. There's are TONS of people at Pensacola Beach this weekend, many of whom have never dealt with a tropical event or storm surge. I haven't seen anyone putting up storm shutters as of yet. Hopefully, it wont be warranted. I have seen quite a few folks at the stations filling gas cans today. If NHC issues a hurricane watch, I expect tomorrow to be quite different. I would hate to be anywhere near the beaches right now. Pensacola Beach is notorious for traffic issues on a normal summer weekend, much less a holiday. If the storm starts to intensify I expect a mass exodus off the beach and major traffic problems to boot!

[tropicwatch]

Here in Panama City already put the patio furniture and umbrella away. Did it without getting soaked

[Frank2]

Here's a 3 hour gust GIF. I am not sure how well the euro verifies with these maps but it appears winds will be increasing significantly over the keys and southern Florida (both coasts) during the next 24 hours.

That map doesn't make sense. West coast - offshore - perhaps, but offshore east coast, considering the system is weak with multiple centers? By 12Z Sunday it's already beyond Miami's latitude and with dry air now being pulled into the system, that wind forecast is not likely...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

I'm in Santa Rosa County, Fl, just East of P'cola. There's are TONS of people at Pensacola Beach this weekend, many of whom have never dealt with a tropical event or storm surge. I haven't seen anyone putting up storm shutters as of yet. Hopefully, it wont be warranted. I have seen quite a few folks at the stations filling gas cans today. If NHC issues a hurricane watch, I expect tomorrow to be quite different. I would hate to be anywhere near the beaches right now. Pensacola Beach is notorious for traffic issues on a normal summer weekend, much less a holiday. If the storm starts to intensify I expect a mass exodus off the beach and major traffic problems to boot!

There are also thousands camping right on Pensacola beach this weekend.

[AdamFirst]

I think the gusts may be tantamount to spiral bands that are rotating into the storm. The gusts are only in the 30 MPH range along the east coast.

For curiousity I like taking a look at the HRRR mesoscale model to predict conditions within the next 12-18 hours - this may not verify but look at the training bands draped over Southeast FL...

[ronjon]

18Z Nam has some nasty weather hitting the West coast of Fla.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2018052618/nam_mslp_pcpn_watl_5.png

Significant shift east from the 12z run. With the Euro east now too, perhaps another east shift on NHC track at 5 pm and extension of tropical storm warnings north of Anclote along the FL west coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=seus&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018052618&fh=12

[Bocadude85]

Here's a 3 hour gust GIF. I am not sure how well the euro verifies with these maps but it appears winds will be increasing significantly over the keys and southern Florida (both coasts) during the next 24 hours.

Euro did a pretty good job last year with the forecast gusts on the SE Fla coast from Irma, will be interesting to see if this forecast verifies.

[canefan]

With the GFS forecasting a Cat 1 hurricane at landfall, I expect hurricane watches to be posted on the next advisory.

[hipshot]

Was that the COC in that satellite image just off the north west coast of Cuba (the one you could see clear to the gulf)?

[MidnightRain]

I'm in Santa Rosa County, Fl, just East of P'cola. There's are TONS of people at Pensacola Beach this weekend, many of whom have never dealt with a tropical event or storm surge. I haven't seen anyone putting up storm shutters as of yet. Hopefully, it wont be warranted. I have seen quite a few folks at the stations filling gas cans today. If NHC issues a hurricane watch, I expect tomorrow to be quite different. I would hate to be anywhere near the beaches right now. Pensacola Beach is notorious for traffic issues on a normal summer weekend, much less a holiday. If the storm starts to intensify I expect a mass exodus off the beach and major traffic problems to boot!

Hopfeully the trend towards the east continues, which would spare Pensacola of the worst and likely mean a significantly weaker storm. But yeah, this could catch a lot of people off gaurd if it does come in as a high end TS in the Mobile/Pensacola area. Right now I'm thinking Navarre Beach as a 50mph TS. If this were later in the season I would be more worried about it becoming a hurricane, but this part of the Gulf early in the season is usually a chore for storms to stay together let alone be strengethening towards landfall.

[Ivanhater]

Euro Gfs Canadian and Nam all in agreement on extreme NW Florida

[Frank P]

I am not sure the movement is truly 13 mph to north. i think its slowed a little. Maybe in the 7-9mph range?

still looks north to me and doesn't look 13 mph either... looks less than 10mph at least... at sometime it has to start going NNE/NE for any of these models to verify... MHO

[tropicwatch]

Was that the COC in that satellite image just off the north west coast of Cuba (the one you could see clear to the gulf)?

Yes