ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[bamajammer4eva]

Wow @ the Consensus/TVCN compared to the lonely UKMET



http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

[Twisted-core]

EC sim ....awful mess looking for the next system here.


https://imgur.com/aXWpJCn

[tailgater]

http://www.weather.gov/key
http://www.weather.gov/tbw

Tampa radar and Key west paint a different picture. Looks like a due north movement on KW long range and NW on Tampa long range. Time sensitive.

[ocala]

Is it just me or does the 5AM update have the position SSW of where it looks to be on the Key West radar?
Basing this on the direction of the convection around the center.
Never mind. I should have read the discussion first.

The initial motion of 015/11 is highly uncertain since the center
of the storm has been re-forming and wobbling around. In fact,
another center re-formation can not be ruled out since Doppler radar
images show a pronounced mid-level circulation to the northeast of
the low-level center.

[sittingduck]

Good morning from Venice. light to moderate rain here. Winds almost directly due east at about 15 mph consistently. Higher gusts here and there. Definitely can tell this is a hybrid. Last night we had a very cool breeze. Just now starting to feel that tropical moist air that always comes with tropical storms. Thanks for all the posts.

[GCANE]

Pretty decent core given all the negatives such as shear, mid-level dry air, low CAPE & low Theta-E.
Maybe an ominous indication of developments later in the season.
Especially given the active season we had last year.

[WeatherGuesser]

OK, really? I had four or five last year. I don't need one so early this year.

https://www.weather.gov/images/pah/wxst ... 5d2979756e


Or are y'all saying this won't happen?

[northjaxpro]

Looks like it's moving right along too. I'm starting to think this might end up in the Big Bend area.

Headed for Apalachee Bay.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the NHC cone from earlier to where the COC is currently, Alberto is already 75-100 miles east of forecast points. GFS and UK MET both have performed very well all weeklong, with the GFS sniffing out development 2 weeks ago. It sure looks to me now Alberto will landfall somewhere from Panama City and points eastward in the panhandle to the Florida Big Bend.

[marionstorm]

The center on radar and the 5AM center seem a bit away from each other.

[northjaxpro]

We likely will be in for boatloads of rainfall for the coming days. Now that Alberto will move into Apalachee Bay, this guarantees strong potential of extemely heavy rain fall for the peninsula. The deep train fetch of tropical moisture really will saturate us as Alberto rides parallel along the Florida Gulf Coast. I am teally concerned about this.

[tropicwatch]

Recent Sat images look like the system is starting the nnw movement.

[ocala]

We likely will be in for boatloads of rainfall for the coming days. Now that Alberto will move into Apalachee Bay, this guarantees strong potential of extemely heavy rain fall for the peninsula. The deep train fetch of tropical moisture really will saturate us as Alberto rides parallel along the Florida Gulf Coast. I am teally concerned about this.

Jville AFD seems to think a major dry slot will move in tomorrow limiting rain chances.
As we get into the evening hours, the dry slot should begin moving
into the area so have kept the trend for just low end chance pops
this evening and into early Monday morning.

Short term (monday through thursday)...
by Monday morning, model guidance has the center of Alberto near
the Florida Panhandle west of Panama City. With the forecast
center of circulation trending further to the east, the dry air
slot will dominate over much of the area, limiting widespread
showers and thunderstorms for the Holiday. The lack of coverage
may keep a Flood Watch from being issued

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
500 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 84.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued along the Gulf coast of
Florida from Anclote River to Aucilla River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations in this case during the next
36 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.2 West. The
storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
turn toward the north is expected later this morning, and a motion
toward the north-northwest is forecast tonight through Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and make
landfall over the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area Monday
afternoon or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm
conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the
arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move
northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Steady weakening is expected
after Alberto makes landfall, and it is forecast to become a
tropical depression by Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) mainly to
the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Pulaski
Shoals, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 32 mph (52
km/h) and a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 inches.

The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6
inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast
United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas,
and these conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning
area along the west coast of Florida later today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern
Gulf Coast by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida
peninsula today.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to spread northward
along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. For more information, consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg




Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
500 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Alberto appears a little better organized this morning with an area
of deep convection gradually expanding near and to the north of the
center. A large band of showers and thunderstorms extends well to
the east of the center from western Cuba to south Florida and the
northwestern Bahamas. Despite the improved organization, a fairly
recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of about 35 kt, and
therefore, the initial wind speed is held at that value. Based on
the system's structure, it still appears to be subtropical, but it
is gaining some more tropical characteristics. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later
this morning, and should provide a better assessment of its
intensity and structure.

The initial motion of 015/11 is highly uncertain since the center
of the storm has been re-forming and wobbling around. In fact,
another center re-formation can not be ruled out since Doppler radar
images show a pronounced mid-level circulation to the northeast of
the low-level center. Alberto is expected to turn northward later
today and then northwestward tonight as it moves around the eastern
side of a cutoff mid- to upper-level low over the central Gulf of
Mexico. After Alberto merges with the upper low, a turn back to the
north is forecast by Monday night and Tuesday. The latest model
guidance has shifted notably to the right, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted by about 30 n mi in that direction.
The eastward shift necessitates extending the tropical storm warning
along the Gulf coast of Florida.

Even though Alberto has not yet strengthened, slow intensification
seems likely until it reaches the coastline on Monday. The reasons
for intensification consist of diffluence associated with a
negatively tilted upper-level trough, lower shear, and marginally
warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the intensity models
show a weaker solution this cycle, perhaps because the center may
move inland a little sooner, and no model shows Alberto reaching
hurricane strength. Based on this guidance, the NHC forecast has
been lowered slightly, but it still lies near the high end of the
model predictions. Alberto is likely to complete its transition to
a tropical storm within 24 hours when it moves into an area of light
shear, which should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core
and become more symmetric.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of
flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and
south Florida through the day. The risk for heavy rainfall and
flooding will then spread over many parts of the southeast U.S.
tonight and Monday.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well
east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their
local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast today and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 25.0N 84.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 26.8N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 28.6N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 28/1800Z 30.0N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 29/0600Z 31.7N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 36.2N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 41.1N 85.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 45.0N 80.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[caneman]

GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all made sizeable jumps closer to the Florida west coast and big bend area, showing a central panhandle landfall. I forsee another sizable east and north adjustment to the NHC cone at next advisory and TS warnings for the FL big bend. Looks like the scenario everyone found most plausible about a week ago is what's going to play out in the end. I wonder how often that happens.

#Climo

Climo for this time of year almost always wins. GFS apparently isn't dead and I would say the UKIE is now one of the best models

[Jelff]

Here is a Google + GIS map for Alberto. Each time you open the map or turn on a GIS (Geographical Information System) overlay, you will see the most recent data that is hosted on federal GIS servers. You can turn on/off and restack over a dozen data layers.

When the map opens the dots you see are stream gages. This layer is ‘on top’ and therefore clickable. If you click a gage you will see a display with all the attribute data the GIS server has for the thing that you clicked. If you follow the link in that display, you will see NOAA’s graph for that gage with actual and forecast water levels. The color of the stream gage dot represents the seriousness of any current flooding.

For the map legend and more information to help you get the most benefit from the map, please click “Map tips” in the upper left corner.

Map link:
https://mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.php? ... ricane.txt

[northjaxpro]

We shall see. There is a very impressive, long fetch of banding rain extending from the Bahamas northwest to the Northeast Florida coast and offshore extending out over nearly 100 -150 miles.All of that has to rotate through. We will have lots of rain today and the dry slot I feel may not come until tomorrow morning or near the time Alberto makes landfall.

[caneman]

:uarrow: Alberto's coc still moving steadily N/NNE . GFS and UK MET really both handled Alberto very well to this juncture. We still have the end game in terns of landfall to come. However, no question these two models have consistently had the east solutions all week.

Yep. And Climo for this time of year almost always wins

[NDG]

Rain and wind woke me up here in Venice Beach as one of the heavier squalls just passed by. To me Alberto is moving almost due north this morning, 06z forecasts it to start heading NNW shortly. It is passing just to the east of buoy 42003 which is reporting a pressure of 1003mb and northerly winds. Because Alberto is tracking a little further east than earlier forecasted it is passing through some cooler waters in the upper 70s. Some nasty are going to be moving through here later this morning but the GFS shows dry air wrapping around the system and arriving here later today so we may even see a sunset today.

Saved loops:

[northjaxpro]

Good morning NDG. At the beach this Memorial holiday weekend I see. Be safe out there!