
ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
I have placed the latest GFS forecast track over the SSTs image, it indeed will be moving over warmer waters before landfall.


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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
Ivanhater wrote:Huge dry slot and exposed on east side...most weather on NW side today
That's where the recon should find the strongest winds shortly.
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 271311
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 24 20180527
130200 2716N 08349W 8428 01494 0017 +154 +146 145039 041 032 001 01
130230 2715N 08350W 8437 01485 0011 +159 +144 146040 042 032 002 01
130300 2714N 08351W 8419 01500 0011 +159 +139 141045 047 032 001 00
130330 2713N 08353W 8434 01485 0009 +164 +131 137043 045 026 002 00
130400 2712N 08354W 8429 01489 0007 +165 +141 136042 043 029 001 00
130430 2710N 08355W 8426 01490 0005 +165 +146 134041 042 028 001 00
130500 2709N 08356W 8429 01486 0005 +162 +150 138042 044 031 001 00
130530 2708N 08358W 8429 01483 0000 +165 +146 140040 044 030 001 00
130600 2707N 08359W 8432 01478 9997 +164 +151 138041 041 030 001 00
130630 2706N 08400W 8428 01478 9988 +177 +143 140039 042 030 001 00
130700 2705N 08401W 8423 01483 9980 +189 +128 149031 034 032 001 03
130730 2704N 08403W 8428 01476 9979 +188 +125 147033 034 034 000 00
130800 2703N 08404W 8429 01471 9976 +185 +139 148035 035 036 000 00
130830 2702N 08406W 8425 01473 9976 +180 +149 148031 035 035 001 00
130900 2701N 08407W 8431 01462 9971 +185 +131 154032 033 036 001 00
130930 2700N 08409W 8430 01463 9970 +182 +129 151032 032 038 001 00
131000 2700N 08411W 8425 01466 9969 +180 +133 146030 032 036 003 00
131030 2659N 08412W 8430 01458 9966 +179 +134 145030 030 037 002 00
131100 2658N 08414W 8427 01460 9967 +172 +149 142029 031 033 003 00
131130 2657N 08415W 8428 01454 9964 +172 +152 136024 027 029 002 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 271311
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 24 20180527
130200 2716N 08349W 8428 01494 0017 +154 +146 145039 041 032 001 01
130230 2715N 08350W 8437 01485 0011 +159 +144 146040 042 032 002 01
130300 2714N 08351W 8419 01500 0011 +159 +139 141045 047 032 001 00
130330 2713N 08353W 8434 01485 0009 +164 +131 137043 045 026 002 00
130400 2712N 08354W 8429 01489 0007 +165 +141 136042 043 029 001 00
130430 2710N 08355W 8426 01490 0005 +165 +146 134041 042 028 001 00
130500 2709N 08356W 8429 01486 0005 +162 +150 138042 044 031 001 00
130530 2708N 08358W 8429 01483 0000 +165 +146 140040 044 030 001 00
130600 2707N 08359W 8432 01478 9997 +164 +151 138041 041 030 001 00
130630 2706N 08400W 8428 01478 9988 +177 +143 140039 042 030 001 00
130700 2705N 08401W 8423 01483 9980 +189 +128 149031 034 032 001 03
130730 2704N 08403W 8428 01476 9979 +188 +125 147033 034 034 000 00
130800 2703N 08404W 8429 01471 9976 +185 +139 148035 035 036 000 00
130830 2702N 08406W 8425 01473 9976 +180 +149 148031 035 035 001 00
130900 2701N 08407W 8431 01462 9971 +185 +131 154032 033 036 001 00
130930 2700N 08409W 8430 01463 9970 +182 +129 151032 032 038 001 00
131000 2700N 08411W 8425 01466 9969 +180 +133 146030 032 036 003 00
131030 2659N 08412W 8430 01458 9966 +179 +134 145030 030 037 002 00
131100 2658N 08414W 8427 01460 9967 +172 +149 142029 031 033 003 00
131130 2657N 08415W 8428 01454 9964 +172 +152 136024 027 029 002 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
Not to the center yet but might have another pressure drop coming up.
131130 2657N 08415W 8428 01454 9964 +172 +152 136024 027 029 002 00
131130 2657N 08415W 8428 01454 9964 +172 +152 136024 027 029 002 00
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
Recon finally reporting TS force winds at the surface, 49 knots flight level winds in the NE quadrant just before this.
130930 2700N 08409W 8430 01463 9970 +182 +129 151032 032 038 001 00
131000 2700N 08411W 8425 01466 9969 +180 +133 146030 032 036 003 00
131030 2659N 08412W 8430 01458 9966 +179 +134 145030 030 037 002 00
130930 2700N 08409W 8430 01463 9970 +182 +129 151032 032 038 001 00
131000 2700N 08411W 8425 01466 9969 +180 +133 146030 032 036 003 00
131030 2659N 08412W 8430 01458 9966 +179 +134 145030 030 037 002 00
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
Alberto is moving N/NW currently. I will now say 55 kts at landfall for peak intensity after more thought. The dry slot NDG referenced may be enough to keep it from attaining Cat 1 status.
I say landfall east of Panama City or between Panama City and Apalachicola. Landfall occuring late tonight or early Monday, depending on forward speed.
I say landfall east of Panama City or between Panama City and Apalachicola. Landfall occuring late tonight or early Monday, depending on forward speed.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun May 27, 2018 8:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
Its NW track continues, based on radar. Lets see if the recon confirms it.


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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
Recon confirms the NNW heading, not fully NW, strongest quadrant in the SW so far. Pressure maybe down by at least another mb.
131600 2647N 08427W 8425 01453 9953 +182 +159 258016 018 016 001 00
131630 2646N 08428W 8426 01454 9959 +171 +165 264020 021 015 001 00
131700 2645N 08429W 8427 01454 9961 +168 +166 271023 023 017 003 01
131730 2643N 08431W 8433 01451 9963 +171 +166 280024 025 033 006 03
131800 2643N 08431W 8433 01451 9981 +169 //// 306024 027 045 013 05
131830 2641N 08433W 8432 01458 9995 +162 +162 305035 039 046 017 00
131900 2640N 08434W 8429 01467 0003 +155 //// 298032 039 047 024 01
131930 2639N 08435W 8428 01467 0003 +155 +155 312040 045 049 041 00
132000 2637N 08436W 8425 01471 0005 +148 +148 308040 043 051 033 00
132030 2636N 08438W 8433 01469 0010 +144 +144 304044 045 049 024 00
132100 2635N 08439W 8426 01477 0009 +144 +144 304044 045 036 012 00
132130 2634N 08440W 8424 01481 0015 +145 +145 304042 044 034 009 00
131600 2647N 08427W 8425 01453 9953 +182 +159 258016 018 016 001 00
131630 2646N 08428W 8426 01454 9959 +171 +165 264020 021 015 001 00
131700 2645N 08429W 8427 01454 9961 +168 +166 271023 023 017 003 01
131730 2643N 08431W 8433 01451 9963 +171 +166 280024 025 033 006 03
131800 2643N 08431W 8433 01451 9981 +169 //// 306024 027 045 013 05
131830 2641N 08433W 8432 01458 9995 +162 +162 305035 039 046 017 00
131900 2640N 08434W 8429 01467 0003 +155 //// 298032 039 047 024 01
131930 2639N 08435W 8428 01467 0003 +155 +155 312040 045 049 041 00
132000 2637N 08436W 8425 01471 0005 +148 +148 308040 043 051 033 00
132030 2636N 08438W 8433 01469 0010 +144 +144 304044 045 049 024 00
132100 2635N 08439W 8426 01477 0009 +144 +144 304044 045 036 012 00
132130 2634N 08440W 8424 01481 0015 +145 +145 304042 044 034 009 00
Last edited by NDG on Sun May 27, 2018 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
NDG wrote:Its NW track continues, based on radar. Lets see if the recon confirms it.
I definitely agree this is nw according to radar signature.
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 271321
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 25 20180527
131200 2656N 08417W 8429 01453 9961 +174 +158 137020 022 025 001 00
131230 2655N 08418W 8430 01452 9957 +177 +156 144021 021 023 002 00
131300 2654N 08420W 8426 01453 9955 +177 +155 142020 021 024 001 00
131330 2653N 08421W 8430 01447 9953 +178 +155 138018 020 024 001 00
131400 2652N 08422W 8429 01447 9950 +185 +159 132012 016 022 000 03
131430 2650N 08424W 8431 01444 9947 +186 +149 135007 010 017 001 00
131500 2649N 08425W 8429 01447 9950 +183 +156 193003 005 018 000 00
131530 2648N 08426W 8433 01446 9950 +186 +158 238006 007 014 001 00
131600 2647N 08427W 8425 01453 9953 +182 +159 258016 018 016 001 00
131630 2646N 08428W 8426 01454 9959 +171 +165 264020 021 015 001 00
131700 2645N 08429W 8427 01454 9961 +168 +166 271023 023 017 003 01
131730 2643N 08431W 8433 01451 9963 +171 +166 280024 025 033 006 03
131800 2643N 08431W 8433 01451 9981 +169 //// 306024 027 045 013 05
131830 2641N 08433W 8432 01458 9995 +162 +162 305035 039 046 017 00
131900 2640N 08434W 8429 01467 0003 +155 //// 298032 039 047 024 01
131930 2639N 08435W 8428 01467 0003 +155 +155 312040 045 049 041 00
132000 2637N 08436W 8425 01471 0005 +148 +148 308040 043 051 033 00
132030 2636N 08438W 8433 01469 0010 +144 +144 304044 045 049 024 00
132100 2635N 08439W 8426 01477 0009 +144 +144 304044 045 036 012 00
132130 2634N 08440W 8424 01481 0015 +145 +145 304042 044 034 009 00
$$
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Quick Links and Additional Resources
URNT15 KNHC 271321
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 25 20180527
131200 2656N 08417W 8429 01453 9961 +174 +158 137020 022 025 001 00
131230 2655N 08418W 8430 01452 9957 +177 +156 144021 021 023 002 00
131300 2654N 08420W 8426 01453 9955 +177 +155 142020 021 024 001 00
131330 2653N 08421W 8430 01447 9953 +178 +155 138018 020 024 001 00
131400 2652N 08422W 8429 01447 9950 +185 +159 132012 016 022 000 03
131430 2650N 08424W 8431 01444 9947 +186 +149 135007 010 017 001 00
131500 2649N 08425W 8429 01447 9950 +183 +156 193003 005 018 000 00
131530 2648N 08426W 8433 01446 9950 +186 +158 238006 007 014 001 00
131600 2647N 08427W 8425 01453 9953 +182 +159 258016 018 016 001 00
131630 2646N 08428W 8426 01454 9959 +171 +165 264020 021 015 001 00
131700 2645N 08429W 8427 01454 9961 +168 +166 271023 023 017 003 01
131730 2643N 08431W 8433 01451 9963 +171 +166 280024 025 033 006 03
131800 2643N 08431W 8433 01451 9981 +169 //// 306024 027 045 013 05
131830 2641N 08433W 8432 01458 9995 +162 +162 305035 039 046 017 00
131900 2640N 08434W 8429 01467 0003 +155 //// 298032 039 047 024 01
131930 2639N 08435W 8428 01467 0003 +155 +155 312040 045 049 041 00
132000 2637N 08436W 8425 01471 0005 +148 +148 308040 043 051 033 00
132030 2636N 08438W 8433 01469 0010 +144 +144 304044 045 049 024 00
132100 2635N 08439W 8426 01477 0009 +144 +144 304044 045 036 012 00
132130 2634N 08440W 8424 01481 0015 +145 +145 304042 044 034 009 00
$$
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
pcolaman wrote:NDG wrote:Its NW track continues, based on radar. Lets see if the recon confirms it.
https://i.imgur.com/pBsbBQD.gif
I definitely agree this is nw according to radar signature.
And wrapping up the center nicely
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 271331
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 26 20180527
132200 2633N 08441W 8430 01478 0016 +141 +141 305047 048 030 008 00
132230 2632N 08442W 8429 01482 0018 +139 +120 304045 048 027 004 00
132300 2631N 08444W 8428 01489 0020 +143 +115 302043 044 026 003 00
132330 2630N 08445W 8431 01486 0020 +145 +119 303041 043 024 003 00
132400 2629N 08446W 8432 01487 0017 +152 +122 302038 039 025 003 00
132430 2628N 08447W 8425 01494 0018 +152 +128 308038 038 029 001 00
132500 2627N 08449W 8426 01497 0023 +150 +140 308036 038 030 002 00
132530 2626N 08450W 8430 01495 0025 +148 +144 308035 036 028 002 01
132600 2624N 08451W 8429 01499 0028 +146 +139 308034 035 025 002 00
132630 2623N 08452W 8432 01497 0031 +149 +125 306033 035 026 001 00
132700 2622N 08454W 8426 01504 0034 +146 +124 308032 032 025 002 00
132730 2621N 08455W 8427 01502 0036 +144 +127 310030 031 026 003 00
132800 2620N 08456W 8430 01503 0038 +139 +132 314030 030 025 002 00
132830 2619N 08457W 8427 01507 0051 +139 //// 317031 032 023 004 01
132900 2618N 08459W 8426 01510 0044 +143 //// 309027 032 026 005 01
132930 2617N 08500W 8430 01507 0048 +149 //// 318028 029 026 010 01
133000 2615N 08501W 8418 01521 //// +140 //// 316027 029 024 001 01
133030 2614N 08502W 8431 01506 //// +136 //// 321026 027 025 004 01
133100 2613N 08504W 8431 01508 0057 +138 //// 313026 029 028 005 01
133130 2612N 08505W 8425 01515 0044 +145 +138 314023 025 021 001 01
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 271331
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 26 20180527
132200 2633N 08441W 8430 01478 0016 +141 +141 305047 048 030 008 00
132230 2632N 08442W 8429 01482 0018 +139 +120 304045 048 027 004 00
132300 2631N 08444W 8428 01489 0020 +143 +115 302043 044 026 003 00
132330 2630N 08445W 8431 01486 0020 +145 +119 303041 043 024 003 00
132400 2629N 08446W 8432 01487 0017 +152 +122 302038 039 025 003 00
132430 2628N 08447W 8425 01494 0018 +152 +128 308038 038 029 001 00
132500 2627N 08449W 8426 01497 0023 +150 +140 308036 038 030 002 00
132530 2626N 08450W 8430 01495 0025 +148 +144 308035 036 028 002 01
132600 2624N 08451W 8429 01499 0028 +146 +139 308034 035 025 002 00
132630 2623N 08452W 8432 01497 0031 +149 +125 306033 035 026 001 00
132700 2622N 08454W 8426 01504 0034 +146 +124 308032 032 025 002 00
132730 2621N 08455W 8427 01502 0036 +144 +127 310030 031 026 003 00
132800 2620N 08456W 8430 01503 0038 +139 +132 314030 030 025 002 00
132830 2619N 08457W 8427 01507 0051 +139 //// 317031 032 023 004 01
132900 2618N 08459W 8426 01510 0044 +143 //// 309027 032 026 005 01
132930 2617N 08500W 8430 01507 0048 +149 //// 318028 029 026 010 01
133000 2615N 08501W 8418 01521 //// +140 //// 316027 029 024 001 01
133030 2614N 08502W 8431 01506 //// +136 //// 321026 027 025 004 01
133100 2613N 08504W 8431 01508 0057 +138 //// 313026 029 028 005 01
133130 2612N 08505W 8425 01515 0044 +145 +138 314023 025 021 001 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models
0Z Euro

6z GFS


6z GFS

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M a r k
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
Now that alberto is experiencing shear from the east/southeast, be careful when saying the biggest impacts will be east of the center. This is currently not the case. The rain here in East central Florida has not been that bad... Yet. And the sky has brightened. 

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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm

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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
Agreed. The sun is out here in Venice for the first time in a week - funny timing.
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Models
Just thinking here.
The euro screwed up again with a sheared system, tracking too far west. Now shear has shifted directions and the Euro has shifted east. Same mistake? GFS has shown a center scoot or relocation west for a number of runs now, so I suspect NHC track is still pretty close to correct.

The euro screwed up again with a sheared system, tracking too far west. Now shear has shifted directions and the Euro has shifted east. Same mistake? GFS has shown a center scoot or relocation west for a number of runs now, so I suspect NHC track is still pretty close to correct.

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M a r k
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Recon
Vortex Message:
000
URNT12 KNHC 271337
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012018
A. 27/13:15:00Z
B. 26 deg 49 min N
084 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1377 m
D. 38 kt
E. 055 deg 18 nm
F. 135 deg 49 kt
G. 052 deg 62 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 15 C / 1525 m
J. 19 C / 1523 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF302 0401A ALBERTO OB 12
MAX FL WIND 49 KT 052 / 62 NM 12:55:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 150 / 11 KT
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 057 / 24 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
000
URNT12 KNHC 271337
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012018
A. 27/13:15:00Z
B. 26 deg 49 min N
084 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1377 m
D. 38 kt
E. 055 deg 18 nm
F. 135 deg 49 kt
G. 052 deg 62 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 15 C / 1525 m
J. 19 C / 1523 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF302 0401A ALBERTO OB 12
MAX FL WIND 49 KT 052 / 62 NM 12:55:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 150 / 11 KT
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 057 / 24 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
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Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
- stormhunter7
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
pressure down to 994mb?
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Sub-Tropical Storm
Eastward shift to Alberto helped SFL keeping rainbands from training across the peninsula. Over the Bahamas now
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