ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271641
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 45 20180527
163200 2704N 08503W 8425 01482 0015 +151 +151 288017 019 038 009 00
163230 2705N 08502W 8429 01477 0009 +150 +150 280019 020 041 009 03
163300 2707N 08501W 8425 01479 0008 +147 +147 278019 021 041 009 00
163330 2708N 08459W 8428 01475 0003 +151 +151 275021 021 032 012 00
163400 2709N 08458W 8433 01465 0001 +147 +147 277023 024 031 012 00
163430 2710N 08457W 8424 01472 9994 +146 +145 278025 025 028 011 00
163500 2712N 08455W 8424 01468 9986 +152 +142 275023 025 036 017 00
163530 2713N 08454W 8428 01461 9984 +150 +144 278024 026 046 029 00
163600 2714N 08453W 8448 01435 9985 +160 +160 286018 023 048 037 00
163630 2715N 08452W 8406 01477 9978 +149 //// 247020 021 029 014 01
163700 2717N 08451W 8427 01454 9962 +169 +164 245021 022 029 007 00
163730 2718N 08449W 8431 01450 9957 +174 +163 238020 021 025 004 00
163800 2720N 08449W 8429 01452 9953 +179 +162 243014 018 021 001 03
163830 2721N 08450W 8429 01446 9950 +176 +159 251007 013 018 002 03
163900 2723N 08450W 8427 01445 9945 +181 +156 263004 006 020 001 00
163930 2724N 08451W 8430 01441 9950 +168 +165 010006 006 019 001 01
164000 2726N 08451W 8426 01443 9949 +170 +168 029007 008 020 001 01
164030 2726N 08451W 8426 01443 9948 +172 +168 033010 011 021 001 03
164100 2728N 08453W 8426 01446 9949 +172 +162 047018 021 027 000 00
164130 2729N 08454W 8429 01446 9951 +179 +140 046026 029 029 000 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a quick look at the mechanism for this current structure and why this will likely bend back to the west for some time before a north motion.
if you look here in this long mid level WV loop you will see a mid level vort/ low swing south while alberto move rapidly north last night. Now that mid level low is south of alberto and the two are essentially rotating around each other. we should really see a more w to wnw motion today and tonight until that mid level feature weakens... at which time the shear environment will likely become much better for intensification.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

Any chance of Alberto doing a cyclonic loop as he interacts with the upper low?

yes that is what I mentioned on the previous page. it is possible. but at the very least a bend back to the wnw for awhile is likely.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271651
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 46 20180527
164200 2731N 08456W 8428 01449 9951 +184 +117 039031 032 030 002 00
164230 2732N 08457W 8431 01446 9955 +177 +118 037035 036 032 001 00
164300 2733N 08458W 8429 01451 9970 +155 +145 038036 037 031 002 00
164330 2734N 08459W 8427 01457 9971 +158 +135 041038 040 031 001 00
164400 2735N 08501W 8436 01450 9976 +154 +150 041038 039 031 000 01
164430 2736N 08502W 8425 01465 //// +150 //// 049042 043 033 002 01
164500 2737N 08503W 8433 01458 9984 +154 +141 048041 042 030 001 00
164530 2738N 08504W 8426 01466 9985 +158 +123 046041 041 030 001 00
164600 2739N 08506W 8429 01467 9985 +164 +126 048042 043 031 000 00
164630 2740N 08507W 8429 01468 9985 +164 +138 053042 044 029 002 00
164700 2741N 08508W 8433 01470 9989 +158 +145 052041 042 029 001 01
164730 2742N 08509W 8429 01472 //// +155 //// 057039 040 033 001 01
164800 2744N 08511W 8433 01472 //// +153 //// 058041 043 038 001 01
164830 2745N 08512W 8428 01479 0001 +155 +154 054046 048 037 001 00
164900 2746N 08513W 8439 01467 0002 +153 //// 056044 045 034 004 01
164930 2747N 08515W 8426 01483 0010 +160 //// 059049 050 038 014 01
165000 2748N 08516W 8436 01476 0016 +162 +162 052044 049 038 019 00
165030 2749N 08517W 8430 01482 0014 +165 +165 057041 043 035 009 00
165100 2750N 08519W 8432 01483 0016 +157 //// 056040 042 035 004 01
165130 2751N 08520W 8435 01482 //// +156 //// 057040 042 034 003 01
$$
;

[drezee]

yes that is what I mentioned on the previous page. it is possible. but at the very least a bend back to the wnw for awhile is likely.

NHC may have to do a little catch up at 21z advisory. Wasn't supposed to hit 84.9W until 0z. It will be there at 18z. Could get interesting if the HRRR is right.

[chaser1]

Here is a quick look at the mechanism for this current structure and why this will likely bend back to the west for some time before a north motion.
if you look here in this long mid level WV loop you will see a mid level vort/ low swing south while alberto move rapidly north last night. Now that mid level low is south of alberto and the two are essentially rotating around each other. we should really see a more w to wnw motion today and tonight until that mid level feature weakens... at which time the shear environment will likely become much better for intensification.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

Any chance of Alberto doing a cyclonic loop as he interacts with the upper low? Perhaps just a small loop, which might effectively just average out to a slow down before heading N?

You beat me to it lol. Though, i'm more apt to think we'll see the MLC more or less "yank" the better co-located LLC half way around during the day and the net effect being essentially a Northwest motion until early tomorrow where a true north motion might likely be established until landfall. As others here have already stated (and NHC has been waiting for), we'll probably see some slow steady state deepening. Actually, while I was leaning toward the other camp with regard to peak intensity I'm now seeing that this tight core system may very well make a push to darn near Hurricane intensity

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271701
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 47 20180527
165200 2753N 08521W 8425 01493 //// +157 //// 058044 045 035 001 01
165230 2754N 08523W 8434 01487 //// +154 //// 059044 045 035 002 01
165300 2755N 08524W 8429 01493 //// +158 //// 060041 042 035 001 01
165330 2756N 08525W 8430 01492 //// +156 //// 061039 041 033 002 01
165400 2757N 08527W 8433 01491 //// +157 //// 063040 041 033 001 01
165430 2758N 08528W 8430 01497 //// +156 //// 059040 040 033 001 01
165500 2759N 08529W 8430 01496 //// +155 //// 057042 045 032 002 01
165530 2801N 08531W 8428 01500 //// +154 //// 058044 046 031 002 01
165600 2802N 08532W 8426 01503 //// +152 //// 060044 045 033 002 01
165630 2803N 08533W 8422 01506 0030 +156 //// 055043 045 039 008 05
165700 2804N 08535W 8434 01496 0041 +155 +155 050044 046 035 017 00
165730 2805N 08536W 8426 01503 0046 +147 //// 036045 048 035 010 01
165800 2806N 08537W 8423 01508 //// +135 //// 037046 049 035 004 01
165830 2807N 08538W 8423 01509 0041 +152 +152 034043 045 038 007 03
165900 2808N 08539W 8426 01506 0043 +145 +145 034043 044 038 008 00
165930 2809N 08541W 8431 01502 0050 +144 +144 038043 044 035 011 00
170000 2810N 08542W 8421 01515 0051 +150 +150 035046 047 033 010 00
170030 2811N 08543W 8425 01513 0047 +154 +154 034043 047 035 008 00
170100 2812N 08544W 8427 01511 0049 +150 +150 036042 044 035 007 00
170130 2813N 08545W 8432 01507 0056 +141 //// 032042 044 034 005 05
$$
;

[chaser1]

I dont recall what the UK was calling for in terms of peak intensity, anyone else? I think the 0Z runs across the board will all begin to suggest a bit greater intensity then recent runs.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271711
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 48 20180527
170200 2814N 08547W 8432 01509 0056 +143 //// 034042 042 034 005 01
170230 2815N 08548W 8428 01513 0057 +144 //// 036042 043 033 006 01
170300 2816N 08549W 8433 01510 0061 +145 +145 036040 041 033 009 00
170330 2817N 08550W 8429 01514 0063 +146 +146 038040 040 032 009 00
170400 2818N 08552W 8431 01515 0062 +144 +144 036040 040 032 012 00
170430 2818N 08552W 8431 01515 0065 +148 +148 038039 040 035 016 00
170500 2820N 08554W 8429 01518 0064 +145 +145 037039 040 034 010 00
170530 2821N 08555W 8430 01519 0060 +139 //// 042039 040 032 004 01
170600 2823N 08556W 8430 01519 0060 +141 //// 043040 040 034 002 01
170630 2824N 08558W 8427 01521 0059 +146 //// 044040 041 030 006 01
170700 2825N 08559W 8429 01524 0057 +147 +141 044039 040 029 004 00
170730 2826N 08600W 8426 01526 0058 +146 +142 045039 040 029 002 00
170800 2827N 08602W 8430 01522 0059 +145 +137 044037 039 028 002 00
170830 2828N 08603W 8428 01526 0060 +142 +139 045038 039 028 001 01
170900 2829N 08604W 8429 01524 0062 +144 +137 042038 039 028 000 00
170930 2830N 08605W 8429 01528 0065 +140 +134 041035 038 028 001 00
171000 2831N 08607W 8429 01526 //// +140 //// 043033 034 028 003 01
171030 2832N 08608W 8430 01525 0063 +144 +142 045032 033 027 002 00
171100 2833N 08609W 8429 01529 0062 +145 +141 047031 031 027 004 00
171130 2834N 08611W 8430 01527 0063 +149 +137 045030 030 027 003 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

The next two missions will be departing at 4:30 PM EDT on Sunday Afternoon and early Monday at 5:00 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
       A. 27/2330Z,28/0530Z          A. 28/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0501A ALBERTO        B. AFXXX 0601A ALBERTO
       C. 27/2030Z                   C. 28/0900Z
       D. 27.4N 86.0W                D. 28.7N 86.6W
       E. 27/2300Z TO 28/0530Z       E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[gatorcane]

MASSIVE amounts of dry air:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271721
AF302 0401A ALBERTO HDOB 49 20180527
171200 2835N 08612W 8429 01529 0065 +146 +128 044031 032 027 003 00
171230 2836N 08613W 8430 01528 0064 +150 +120 047031 031 028 002 00
171300 2838N 08614W 8428 01532 0066 +148 +124 049032 033 026 002 00
171330 2839N 08616W 8421 01539 0070 +145 +143 043033 035 028 002 00
171400 2840N 08617W 8104 01867 0066 +130 +116 044031 032 022 008 03
171430 2841N 08618W 7702 02284 0060 +109 +100 052030 031 /// /// 03
171500 2841N 08620W 7335 02697 0053 +089 +080 050026 030 /// /// 03
171530 2841N 08622W 7072 03002 0056 +072 +057 049025 026 026 002 00
171600 2840N 08625W 6966 03125 0058 +062 +057 051025 025 028 002 01
171630 2839N 08627W 6960 03125 //// +058 //// 042027 029 029 001 01
171700 2839N 08630W 6968 03118 0059 +059 +056 037029 029 029 001 01
171730 2838N 08633W 6836 03276 0055 +051 //// 043028 029 028 001 01
171800 2837N 08636W 6529 03665 //// +034 //// 050025 028 028 001 01
171830 2837N 08638W 6228 04049 0053 +019 +014 049024 025 027 001 01
171900 2836N 08641W 5930 04428 0019 -001 -009 038023 026 026 002 05
171930 2836N 08643W 5658 04805 0017 -017 -026 031025 027 /// /// 03
172000 2835N 08645W 5408 05183 0195 -035 -047 032023 025 /// /// 03
172030 2835N 08647W 5184 05522 0214 -051 -062 043024 024 /// /// 03
172100 2836N 08649W 5029 05754 0231 -063 -076 048025 025 /// /// 03
172130 2836N 08652W 4870 06016 0247 -076 -091 052025 025 /// /// 03
$$
;

Mission over.

[psyclone]

With that dry air rotating in on the south side of the storm we've got sufficient time for some heating which could yield some good bands over the florida peninsula this afternoon. there's a pretty good one already going west of lake O with a good amount of lightning

[tolakram]

12Z GFS still showing westward wobble.

[drezee]

Last three recon fixes are close to 345 degree trajectory. The turn has begun...

I'm measuring about 341 degrees at 14 kts over the past 2.5 hrs. Dry air is wrapping around the center, which will make it difficult for Alberto to strengthen.

New fix in: last three fixes...

Point 1:
26 49 00N
,
084 25 00W
Point 2:
27 23 00N
,
084 51 00W
Distance: 76.22 km (to 4 SF*)
Final bearing: 325° 39′ 21

Turn continues...almost NW now

[cycloneye]

I think the next mission this evening will be a very important one to see first what is the movement and second if the pressure is lower than the past mission and winds are more stronger.

[Aric Dunn]

parallel HRRR is very likely to play out in some sort of way..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2716&fh=-3

[plasticup]

MASSIVE amounts of dry air:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

She's dead, Jim! Or at least crippled.

[toad strangler]

MASSIVE amounts of dry air:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Oy Vey ....

[NDG]

My tweet from Venice Beach

 https://twitter.com/ndgmetchef/status/1000790461638955008

[tolakram]

It appears weather.us already has the UKMET, called global Britain? Anyway, here's an animated GIF of the 12Z run.