ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[drezee]

So....current NHC forecast
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.3N 85.9W...INLAND
Based on last three fixes it would cross 30.3N around 87W

[Aric Dunn]

THe Dry air wont be as much of an issue once that mid level low to the south rotates up later. it will be essentially cutting off the dry air.

[tolakram]

COD midlevel WV loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=

[bamajammer4eva]

 https://twitter.com/StGeorgeIsland/status/1000751470109777921

[sittingduck]

[quote="NDG"]My tweet from Venice Beach

Oh you are at the south jetty. surprised there weren’t any surfers out. Did you see some on the north side?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
200 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. The
storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast
to occur later today or tonight. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of
Mexico today and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning
area tonight or Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm
conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the
arrival of the center of Alberto. Alberto is expected to move
northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the system
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression by
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily
to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of
20 inches.

The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6
inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast
United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward in the
warning area along the west coast of Florida today and will reach
the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida
peninsula today.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[drezee]

Should drop the subtropical at 18z...He's a real boy now!!!

[Aric Dunn]

The euro by 7 tonight pretty much kill all convection with it.. lol

[stormhunter7]

seeing signs that the cdo is being pulled back towards center on the sw side. This may cause the low at surface to slow some more.

[Aric Dunn]

nevermind.. wrong run lol .. 12z looks a lot better than the 00z

[Aric Dunn]

landfall at 989 mb

in 33 hours

partial eyewall as it approaches the coast..

[Aric Dunn]

seeing signs that the cdo is being pulled back towards center on the sw side. This may cause the low at surface to slow some more.

yeah convection is trying to wrap around to the east side.

it will as soon as that mid level vort to the south swings a little more ene. the shear direction will change

[northjaxpro]

Getting the heaviest downpours right now here in north Jax.

Also, pretty impressive spiral band rotating through South-Central peninsula as well. I would not be surprised to see some tornadic cells from that band down state.

[Hammy]

Convection looks like it's on the decline as more dry air gets wrapped in.

[floridasun78]

look south fl will see sun soon as dry air get pull from south

[Aric Dunn]

you can also see the convection starting to wrap to the east side on long range radar

[robbielyn]

you can also see the convection starting to wrap to the east side on long range radar

will u please show pic?

[caneman]

Yes. Some sunshine in the Tampa bay area

[Aric Dunn]

you can also see the convection starting to wrap to the east side on long range radar

will u please show pic?

[johngaltfla]

look south fl will see sun soon as dry air get pull from south

Already seeing it here in Sarasota so I'm not complaining!