ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[FLpanhandle91]

18z GFS is east and stronger so far.

moves wnw for 6 hours then just shoots north. odd.

I'm not seeing anything at the 500mb level to warrant a northerly turn like that.

[stormreader]

About an hour ago, a buoy of off Apalachicola was reporting 45mph sustained with gusts to 50.

I'd guess Alberto is probably around 50 knots and is now Tropical.

About an hour ago, a buoy of off Apalachicola was reporting 45mph sustained with gusts to 50.

I'd guess Alberto is probably around 50 knots and is now Tropical.

Definitely looks like it’s working on building a core. Previous comments about west bringing it over warmer waters should be a factor. Remember earlier thoughts from a couple of days ago (when reliable modeling forecasted a bend more west before landfall) and some of the experienced posters here commented that storms pushed westward often intensify (effects of high pressure interaction). Wish I could get better sat pics from NHC. Hopeful for changes before heart of season.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272141
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 05 20180527
213200 2937N 09448W 6914 03215 //// +072 //// 357013 015 /// /// 05
213230 2937N 09446W 6734 03437 //// +064 //// 007011 012 /// /// 05
213300 2937N 09444W 6553 03661 //// +048 //// 011011 012 /// /// 05
213330 2938N 09442W 6368 03893 //// +041 //// 004012 013 /// /// 05
213400 2938N 09440W 6233 04068 //// +030 //// 357012 013 /// /// 05
213430 2939N 09438W 6090 04255 //// +017 //// 358011 011 /// /// 05
213500 2939N 09436W 5942 04453 //// +006 //// 351013 014 /// /// 05
213530 2939N 09434W 5917 04486 //// +003 //// 341016 018 /// /// 05
213600 2940N 09431W 5933 04466 //// +007 //// 345017 018 /// /// 05
213630 2940N 09429W 5923 04480 0055 +006 -001 350013 018 /// /// 05
213700 2939N 09426W 5922 04481 //// +001 //// 339010 010 /// /// 05
213730 2939N 09423W 5928 04474 0071 +001 -002 339012 013 /// /// 05
213800 2939N 09420W 5917 04485 0075 -004 -011 341011 012 /// /// 03
213830 2939N 09417W 5792 04653 0064 -012 -018 350013 014 /// /// 05
213900 2938N 09414W 5697 04787 0052 -013 -035 345014 015 /// /// 03
213930 2938N 09411W 5488 05079 0200 -017 -061 355015 015 /// /// 03
214000 2938N 09409W 5267 05407 0220 -032 -081 003018 020 /// /// 03
214030 2937N 09407W 5177 05546 0231 -040 -111 001020 021 /// /// 03
214100 2937N 09404W 5098 05667 0238 -047 -134 359020 021 /// /// 03
214130 2937N 09402W 5018 05790 0245 -059 -152 354020 021 /// /// 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

18z GFS is east and stronger so far.

moves wnw for 6 hours then just shoots north. odd.

I'm not seeing anything at the 500mb level to warrant a northerly turn like that.

nope. means it is something else. could just be the bermuda high is stronger than what is north of it.

[marionstorm]

Who had the bright idea of bringing the plane to Houston when Tampa is so close to the storm?

[Stangfriik]

yeah it will be well west of the next forecast point and the cone again soon.

Yeah even the updated track..still moving west of that..interesting

yeah, can be seen easily from here ..

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Interesting little spin up to the east of Flagler County

[Nimbus]

Pressures still dropping at buoy 42003 even though the storm was forecast to move NNW.
Could be just a temporary slowdown as the shear is leaving most of the convection wrapping in from over warmer waters to the west now. Still concerned about a stall but Recon will probably find the naked LLC near 990 MBs which would not be too bad.

[FLpanhandle91]

Landfall trend.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272151
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 06 20180527
214200 2936N 09400W 4940 05913 0252 -062 -124 352022 023 /// /// 03
214230 2936N 09357W 4870 06027 0259 -069 -137 357018 021 /// /// 03
214300 2936N 09355W 4851 06058 0263 -070 -131 351022 023 /// /// 03
214330 2936N 09352W 4946 05913 0258 -061 -165 352022 023 /// /// 03
214400 2935N 09349W 5075 05708 0245 -055 -150 349017 020 /// /// 03
214430 2935N 09346W 5226 05481 0237 -047 -117 345015 016 /// /// 03
214500 2935N 09343W 5253 05441 0234 -043 -095 343015 016 /// /// 03
214530 2934N 09339W 5209 05503 0234 -046 -090 341019 020 /// /// 03
214600 2934N 09336W 5103 05665 0242 -053 -102 347019 020 /// /// 03
214630 2934N 09334W 5012 05804 0250 -061 -134 357018 020 /// /// 03
214700 2933N 09331W 4903 05976 0259 -065 -149 005019 019 /// /// 03
214730 2934N 09328W 4797 06147 0268 -078 -167 001017 019 /// /// 03
214800 2934N 09326W 4716 06277 0276 -085 -216 002019 021 /// /// 03
214830 2934N 09323W 4662 06367 0280 -091 -250 355017 018 /// /// 03
214900 2935N 09321W 4608 06454 0285 -096 -237 357019 021 /// /// 03
214930 2935N 09318W 4547 06556 0290 -104 -245 354020 021 /// /// 03
215000 2935N 09315W 4501 06637 0295 -111 -269 354021 022 /// /// 03
215030 2935N 09313W 4456 06712 0298 -120 -285 352021 022 /// /// 03
215100 2935N 09310W 4406 06797 0301 -122 -307 347022 022 /// /// 03
215130 2936N 09308W 4359 06876 0305 -127 -313 343021 023 /// /// 03
$$

[Dean4Storms]

I hate disagreeing with NHC and I know they know better than me but I do not agree with the no strengthening before landfall tomorrow afternoon. Alberto is moving into 80F+ SST's, less shear and the only factor inhibiting is dry air which overnight should be mixed out in the core. I can see at least a 10mph increase in sustained winds after seeing it deepen and go from 40mph winds to 50mph just this morning in a higher shear environment over the center. Just my Opinion of course.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[FLpanhandle91]

18z GFS is east and stronger so far.

moves wnw for 6 hours then just shoots north. odd.

I'm not seeing anything at the 500mb level to warrant a northerly turn like that.

nope. means it is something else. could just be the bermuda high is stronger than what is north of it.

That turn is almost 45 degrees over a couple hours. Dont thibk the Bermuda high plays that much of a factor in steering. At least not to that extent.

[Hammy]

Who had the bright idea of bringing the plane to Houston when Tampa is so close to the storm?

It's possible local conditions may have prevented a takeoff from Tampa, or at least that they expected the conditions to be worse when the plane was moved.

[cycloneye]

I hate disagreeing with NHC and I know they know better than me but I do not agree with the no strengthening before landfall tomorrow afternoon. Alberto is moving into 80F+ SST's, less shear and the only factor inhibiting is dry air which overnight should be mixed out in the core. I can see at least a 10mph increase in sustained winds after seeing it deepen and go from 40mph winds to 50mph just this morning in a higher shear environment over the center. Just my Opinion of course.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Added to your post our S2K disclaimer.

[stormhunter7]

Alberto is wrapping storms into the SE part of COC. This might be a start of a ramp up this evening with all the dry air.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS with 60-70mph gusts along the Coast from Destin to Apalachicola.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272201
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 07 20180527
215200 2936N 09305W 4308 06965 0309 -133 -279 341020 021 /// /// 03
215230 2936N 09303W 4263 07044 0313 -135 -241 339021 021 /// /// 03
215300 2936N 09300W 4225 07112 0318 -136 -221 335022 022 /// /// 03
215330 2937N 09258W 4193 07170 0320 -142 -226 335021 024 /// /// 03
215400 2937N 09255W 4149 07248 0324 -148 -210 332020 022 /// /// 03
215430 2937N 09253W 4111 07317 0327 -149 -238 330022 023 /// /// 03
215500 2937N 09250W 4098 07340 0330 -145 -265 329023 025 /// /// 03
215530 2938N 09247W 4097 07343 0329 -153 -251 329020 022 /// /// 03
215600 2938N 09245W 4099 07338 0328 -160 -251 339018 020 /// /// 03
215630 2938N 09242W 4098 07339 0328 -157 -251 333018 019 /// /// 03
215700 2938N 09239W 4098 07342 0329 -160 -314 324011 017 /// /// 03
215730 2939N 09236W 4097 07344 0329 -160 -300 321009 010 /// /// 03
215800 2939N 09233W 4098 07339 0328 -165 -324 292009 010 /// /// 03
215830 2939N 09230W 4097 07342 0327 -164 -293 298011 011 /// /// 03
215900 2939N 09227W 4103 07328 0326 -160 -347 317011 012 /// /// 03
215930 2940N 09224W 4097 07343 0327 -158 -350 324012 014 /// /// 03
220000 2940N 09222W 4098 07338 0326 -161 -353 319012 013 /// /// 03
220030 2939N 09219W 4099 07336 0326 -165 -348 324012 012 /// /// 03
220100 2938N 09216W 4100 07333 0325 -165 -306 329012 012 /// /// 03
220130 2938N 09213W 4098 07337 0324 -165 -306 332012 013 /// /// 03
$$

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Who had the bright idea of bringing the plane to Houston when Tampa is so close to the storm?

It's possible local conditions may have prevented a takeoff from Tampa, or at least that they expected the conditions to be worse when the plane was moved.

Nope. I'm in Tampa and the weather is actually quite pleasant right now.

[cycloneye]

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, NHC says sticking around 50 mph I called it yesterday. Environment looked ugly for it. Broken clock is right twice a day.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272211
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 08 20180527
220200 2937N 09210W 4101 07332 0323 -163 -298 338012 013 /// /// 03
220230 2937N 09207W 4097 07337 0323 -165 -308 344012 013 /// /// 03
220300 2936N 09204W 4103 07327 0324 -160 -293 351012 013 /// /// 03
220330 2935N 09202W 4098 07337 0324 -160 -285 345013 013 /// /// 03
220400 2935N 09159W 4099 07333 0324 -159 -280 343013 014 /// /// 03
220430 2934N 09156W 4098 07336 0323 -156 -323 345013 013 /// /// 03
220500 2934N 09153W 4098 07334 0323 -155 -308 342013 014 /// /// 03
220530 2933N 09150W 4102 07328 0322 -155 -328 337014 014 /// /// 03
220600 2933N 09147W 4098 07333 0321 -159 -325 330014 015 /// /// 03
220630 2932N 09144W 4103 07323 0321 -161 -294 343011 014 /// /// 03
220700 2931N 09142W 4099 07331 0320 -160 -283 353011 011 /// /// 03
220730 2931N 09139W 4097 07334 0321 -163 -278 343009 010 /// /// 03
220800 2930N 09136W 4098 07333 0321 -164 -276 338010 010 /// /// 03
220830 2930N 09133W 4099 07332 0322 -165 -270 343011 011 /// /// 03
220900 2929N 09130W 4098 07332 0320 -164 -281 329011 012 /// /// 03
220930 2928N 09128W 4098 07332 0320 -163 -266 329010 011 /// /// 03
221000 2928N 09125W 4101 07327 0319 -161 -306 323011 012 /// /// 03
221030 2927N 09122W 4100 07331 0321 -161 -291 335010 011 /// /// 03
221100 2927N 09119W 4098 07338 0323 -160 -308 345008 011 /// /// 03
221130 2926N 09116W 4097 07337 0322 -160 -326 336009 009 /// /// 03
$$