ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[stormhunter7]

So, NHC says sticking around 50 mph I called it yesterday. Environment looked ugly for it. Broken clock is right twice a day.

With storms firing on east side of COC... i think things are about to get interesting. See some HOT towers going up on center eyewall areas.

[stormreader]

I hate disagreeing with NHC and I know they know better than me but I do not agree with the no strengthening before landfall tomorrow afternoon. Alberto is moving into 80F+ SST's, less shear and the only factor inhibiting is dry air which overnight should be mixed out in the core. I can see at least a 10mph increase in sustained winds after seeing it deepen and go from 40mph winds to 50mph just this morning in a higher shear environment over the center. Just my Opinion of course.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Does make you wonder. 10pm update might give a better idea (looking at pressure falls). Remember some of the earlier modeling had a west bend and (seems like pressures of about 983 at landfall..perhaps one run of 978 or so). Will see.

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, NHC says sticking around 50 mph I called it yesterday. Environment looked ugly for it. Broken clock is right twice a day.

With storms firing on east side of COC... i think things are about to get interesting. See some HOT towers going up on center eyewall areas.

Take a look at IR. Dry air is eating this thing alive. Along with colder SSTs. I am not seeing any massive blow up coming. This one is an under performer. Well, to be fair to it it is May

[ronjon]

Hard to believe Alberto or its remnants will be near Sault St Marie in Michigans UP by Thursday morning...

[stormhunter7]

Finally looking tropical... Pulling in storms around center.

[Aric Dunn]

Hard to believe Alberto or its remnants will be near Sault St Marie in Michigans UP by Thursday morning...

yeah might even give me a glancing blow and some rain here in Chicago .

[NotSparta]

I hate disagreeing with NHC and I know they know better than me but I do not agree with the no strengthening before landfall tomorrow afternoon. Alberto is moving into 80F+ SST's, less shear and the only factor inhibiting is dry air which overnight should be mixed out in the core. I can see at least a 10mph increase in sustained winds after seeing it deepen and go from 40mph winds to 50mph just this morning in a higher shear environment over the center. Just my Opinion of course.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Added to your post our S2K disclaimer.

If we have something similar to the disclaimer in the signature, should we still add it to the main body of the post?

[cycloneye]

Finally looking tropical... Pulling in storms around center.

Just in time for plane to move thru that.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272221
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 09 20180527
221200 2925N 09113W 4099 07332 0322 -159 -323 322008 009 /// /// 03
221230 2925N 09111W 4099 07332 0322 -161 -315 329007 009 /// /// 03
221300 2924N 09108W 4101 07331 0323 -165 -333 357007 009 /// /// 03
221330 2923N 09105W 4098 07337 0324 -163 -372 356007 009 /// /// 03
221400 2923N 09102W 4099 07333 0324 -161 -285 346008 009 /// /// 03
221430 2922N 09059W 4099 07334 0323 -164 -240 000011 012 /// /// 03
221500 2922N 09057W 4098 07334 0322 -157 -238 011011 013 /// /// 03
221530 2921N 09054W 4099 07331 0322 -156 -216 019010 011 /// /// 03
221600 2920N 09051W 4099 07333 0322 -161 -211 009005 008 /// /// 03
221630 2920N 09048W 4099 07334 0323 -161 -281 055004 006 /// /// 03
221700 2919N 09046W 4099 07332 0323 -158 -238 058005 006 /// /// 03
221730 2919N 09043W 4098 07333 0321 -158 -236 052007 009 /// /// 03
221800 2918N 09040W 4101 07329 0322 -157 -239 043006 009 /// /// 03
221830 2917N 09037W 4095 07339 0322 -155 -295 048003 005 /// /// 03
221900 2917N 09035W 4101 07328 0321 -155 -312 040003 003 /// /// 03
221930 2916N 09032W 4098 07334 0321 -156 -281 034002 003 /// /// 03
222000 2916N 09029W 4098 07333 0321 -158 -259 034003 003 /// /// 03
222030 2915N 09026W 4098 07333 0322 -156 -269 332002 003 /// /// 03
222100 2914N 09024W 4099 07332 0322 -160 -244 339003 003 /// /// 03
222130 2914N 09021W 4099 07332 0322 -160 -254 334004 004 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

it has pretty much slowed way down. barely moved in the past hour.

[stormhunter7]

Just noticed. I guess the sent the AF C-130's to Houston, and evacuated KAFB ahead of Alberto. So want be much time in Alberto, since they gotta cross back across the gulf to get home.

[Evil Jeremy]

Not liking the several feeder bands developing in the Florida straits, heading right for SFL.

[bamajammer4eva]

Models continue to show this getting better organized but looking at radar, it's hard to believe we are in a flash flood watch for 4-8" of rain from this.

[Dean4Storms]

So, NHC says sticking around 50 mph I called it yesterday. Environment looked ugly for it. Broken clock is right twice a day.

With storms firing on east side of COC... i think things are about to get interesting. See some HOT towers going up on center eyewall areas.

Take a look at IR. Dry air is eating this thing alive. Along with colder SSTs. I am not seeing any massive blow up coming. This one is an under performer. Well, to be fair to it it is May

It's been ingesting dry air since it was in the western Carib. Sea so nothing much different other than it is moving into a less sheared environment and higher SST's!

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272231
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 10 20180527
222200 2913N 09018W 4099 07332 0322 -160 -248 352004 004 /// /// 03
222230 2913N 09015W 4098 07333 0321 -160 -249 006005 005 /// /// 03
222300 2912N 09013W 4098 07330 0320 -160 -255 004004 005 /// /// 03
222330 2911N 09010W 4099 07330 0320 -155 -284 010003 004 /// /// 03
222400 2911N 09007W 4098 07333 0319 -156 -295 010005 005 /// /// 03
222430 2911N 09004W 4101 07326 0319 -156 -286 021006 007 /// /// 03
222500 2912N 09001W 4098 07330 0319 -159 -273 023007 008 /// /// 03
222530 2912N 08959W 4099 07327 0317 -156 -286 008006 007 /// /// 03
222600 2913N 08956W 4098 07327 0316 -155 -257 356004 006 /// /// 03
222630 2914N 08953W 4099 07326 0316 -155 -290 350006 006 /// /// 03
222700 2914N 08951W 4099 07327 0316 -155 -256 355006 007 /// /// 03
222730 2915N 08948W 4099 07327 0317 -157 -294 000007 009 /// /// 03
222800 2916N 08945W 4098 07329 0318 -155 -272 356006 008 /// /// 03
222830 2916N 08942W 4098 07329 0318 -155 -265 350006 007 /// /// 03
222900 2917N 08940W 4099 07328 0318 -155 -268 344006 007 /// /// 03
222930 2917N 08937W 4098 07329 0318 -155 -268 332008 008 /// /// 03
223000 2918N 08934W 4099 07328 0317 -155 -266 333007 008 /// /// 03
223030 2918N 08931W 4099 07326 0317 -155 -264 339007 008 /// /// 03
223100 2919N 08928W 4098 07328 0317 -156 -250 348009 009 /// /// 03
223130 2919N 08925W 4099 07326 0316 -157 -254 352009 010 /// /// 03

[ava_ati]

Alberto is wrapping storms into the SE part of COC. This might be a start of a ramp up this evening with all the dry air.

I don't know, the water vapor map is telling a different story
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-09-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

It has wrapped itself almost entirely in dry air

[DestinHurricane]

im a noob to this so can someone give me a link to floater/satilite, the one i have hasnt updated in 2 hrs

[NotSparta]

Alberto has moved very slowly to the NW it appears, and convection continues to wrap.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

[Aric Dunn]

Alberto is wrapping storms into the SE part of COC. This might be a start of a ramp up this evening with all the dry air.

I don't know, the water vapor map is telling a different story
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-09-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbars=

It has wrapped itself almost entirely in dry air

That is all mostly in the upper levels. it has also wrapped in a whole lot of moisture. the core is completely surrounded by deep moisture. the upper level dry air can easily be mixed out if there is sufficient warming of the core.

so it is likely only a matter of time before convection comes back in a hurry.


low to mid level.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
mid to upper level
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5