ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280221
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 33 20180528
021200 2650N 08641W 8423 01524 0070 +464 +464 276028 029 025 052 00
021230 2650N 08639W 8429 01520 0072 +466 +466 274028 029 026 050 00
021300 2650N 08636W 8416 01533 0060 +470 +470 273028 028 029 033 03
021330 2650N 08633W 8435 01513 0063 +467 +467 269030 032 031 034 00
021400 2650N 08630W 8430 01519 0073 +461 +461 262030 032 023 056 03
021430 2650N 08628W 8427 01519 0067 +462 +462 258030 031 025 063 00
021500 2650N 08625W 8428 01518 0066 +311 //// 259030 031 032 010 05
021530 2650N 08622W 8418 01527 //// +136 //// 255029 031 033 004 01
021600 2650N 08620W 8428 01515 //// +133 //// 254030 031 035 003 01
021630 2650N 08617W 8425 01519 //// +139 //// 254031 031 035 003 01
021700 2650N 08614W 8424 01518 //// +125 //// 248033 034 036 006 01
021730 2650N 08611W 8418 01525 //// +133 //// 246033 034 036 005 01
021800 2650N 08609W 8424 01522 //// +145 //// 248033 033 036 002 01
021830 2650N 08606W 8423 01520 //// +145 //// 246034 034 035 001 01
021900 2650N 08603W 8424 01517 //// +144 //// 244034 035 036 002 01
021930 2650N 08601W 8425 01517 //// +139 //// 243034 034 036 002 01
022000 2650N 08558W 8426 01515 //// +143 //// 241036 038 036 001 01
022030 2650N 08555W 8420 01524 //// +142 //// 241040 041 035 001 01
022100 2650N 08552W 8428 01516 //// +150 //// 240041 041 035 000 01
022130 2650N 08549W 8424 01520 //// +150 //// 241040 041 035 000 01
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The NOAA FTP site that failed for about an hour and a half is working again. That's where I get recon from. As a backup, my site checks the NHC recon archive, but it could be half an hour or an hour before obs are added from there. I'm looking at a secondary backup to the live system.

I first check:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt

I think I am going to code my system so that when that fails it tries:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?text
Extracting the ob from the HTML.

Then it will always still check the NHC recon archive.

Does anyone know of a government site that has raw recon obs, other than ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/?

[canefan]

I don't post often, and mostly observe the many outstanding contributions from the very knowledgeable members of this great community. That said, I've been a weather enthusiast (especially tropical) my entire life and am over 50, and I have never seen anything quite like this in the GOM. It's been quite entertaining and at the same time, completely baffling. Who knows what we will wake up to?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280231
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 34 20180528
022200 2650N 08547W 8424 01520 //// +144 //// 239039 040 037 000 01
022230 2650N 08544W 8424 01522 //// +149 //// 237040 041 036 000 01
022300 2650N 08541W 8425 01521 //// +150 //// 234040 041 036 001 01
022330 2650N 08538W 8425 01521 //// +152 //// 234039 039 035 000 01
022400 2650N 08536W 8424 01521 //// +151 //// 234040 040 034 000 01
022430 2650N 08533W 8424 01522 //// +150 //// 232039 039 033 000 01
022500 2650N 08530W 8424 01523 //// +150 //// 232039 039 032 000 01
022530 2650N 08528W 8424 01523 //// +150 //// 230039 039 032 000 01
022600 2650N 08525W 8423 01524 //// +145 //// 229038 039 031 000 01
022630 2650N 08522W 8425 01522 //// +145 //// 229037 038 030 000 01
022700 2650N 08519W 8426 01521 //// +148 //// 229036 037 030 000 01
022730 2650N 08517W 8425 01524 //// +148 //// 228037 038 031 000 01
022800 2650N 08514W 8424 01524 //// +148 //// 226038 039 031 000 01
022830 2650N 08511W 8424 01526 //// +149 //// 227038 039 032 000 01
022900 2650N 08509W 8425 01523 //// +147 //// 230039 040 034 001 01
022930 2650N 08506W 8425 01525 //// +145 //// 231040 040 034 003 01
023000 2650N 08503W 8423 01528 //// +144 //// 231039 040 032 003 05
023030 2650N 08500W 8425 01526 //// +141 //// 231038 039 032 000 01
023100 2650N 08458W 8422 01531 //// +144 //// 227038 038 029 000 01
023130 2650N 08455W 8424 01529 //// +144 //// 224037 039 028 000 01
$$
;

[EquusStorm]

Definitely a weird way to begin a season. As a fan of such weird storms, I've been intrigued for a few days now.

[Sciencerocks]

I don't post often, and mostly observe the many outstanding contributions from the very knowledgeable members of this great community. That said, I've been a weather enthusiast (especially tropical) my entire life and am over 50, and I have never seen anything quite like this in the GOM. It's been quite entertaining and at the same time, completely baffling. Who knows what we will wake up to?

The closes I can remember is Cindy last year, Colins 2016 for appearance.

Cindy 2017


Colin 2016


Alberto 2006

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Anclote River to the Suwannee
River is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.8 West. The
storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-
northwestward to northward motion is expected Monday through
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move
over the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight and cross the northern
Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday. Alberto is expected to
move inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and move into the
Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches
the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 to 25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area
overnight and continue through Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible on Monday
across much of Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern
South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The 0130 UTC center penetration by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicated that the central pressure had held at 991 mb, and no
stronger winds were found after the earlier pass through the center.
Therefore the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The
system is still not well organized with some elongation of the
center noted. Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so
the cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window
of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially
closed. Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall,
which is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus and
the Florida State University Superensemble and HCCA predictions.

The forward motion has slowed and turned toward the left and is now
estimated to be 315/08 kt. Alberto is moving on the northeastern
side of a broad deep-layer cyclonic circulation. Early this week,
a ridge is forecast to build to the east of the storm, and a trough
will approach Alberto from the northwest. This pattern should
induce a northward turn over the next few days. Due to the recent
more northwestward motion of the storm, the first 12-24 hours of the
official forecast have been shifted a little to the west of the
previous one. Overall, however the latest NHC forecast has not been
changed much and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast overnight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the
track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area
are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government
officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area overnight and tomorrow.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 28.5N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 29.6N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 33.3N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 35.8N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 41.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 46.5N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280241
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 35 20180528
023200 2650N 08452W 8425 01528 //// +143 //// 222036 037 026 000 01
023230 2650N 08450W 8424 01530 //// +145 //// 217035 036 026 000 05
023300 2650N 08447W 8433 01525 //// +146 //// 214034 035 030 001 01
023330 2650N 08445W 8445 01513 //// +142 //// 218031 033 031 002 01
023400 2650N 08443W 8420 01534 //// +123 //// 220029 032 035 012 01
023430 2650N 08441W 8440 01516 //// +128 //// 212030 031 034 013 05
023500 2650N 08439W 8425 01536 //// +146 //// 209031 032 /// /// 05
023530 2652N 08440W 8432 01527 //// +145 //// 214026 031 032 004 01
023600 2653N 08441W 8437 01518 //// +129 //// 211031 034 033 005 01
023630 2654N 08443W 8429 01524 //// +140 //// 214035 036 029 007 01
023700 2655N 08444W 8428 01525 //// +145 //// 212035 035 028 001 01
023730 2657N 08445W 8428 01525 //// +136 //// 211026 034 028 001 01
023800 2658N 08447W 8439 01515 //// +140 //// 215026 028 029 004 01
023830 2659N 08448W 8427 01523 //// +145 //// 211031 031 025 004 01
023900 2700N 08449W 8432 01519 //// +145 //// 219032 032 026 000 01
023930 2701N 08450W 8429 01521 //// +142 //// 219032 032 027 001 01
024000 2702N 08452W 8431 01518 //// +142 //// 218031 032 027 002 01
024030 2704N 08453W 8430 01517 //// +143 //// 218031 032 028 001 01
024100 2705N 08454W 8425 01523 //// +140 //// 219032 033 028 001 01
024130 2706N 08455W 8430 01516 //// +140 //// 220033 033 027 002 01
$$
;

[jdjaguar]

The thing that gets me is 12 mph to the nw. So that will move landfall to the west unless it turns hard to the north.So possible hurricane at landfall now with little time for evacuations from the coast.

Normally one does not need to evacuate for Cat 1/2
Storm surge estimates are my critical deciding factorand or CAT 3 classification

Beg to differ with ya. Cat 1 will issue on barrier islands voluntary evacuations with cat 2 mandatory evacuation. Storm surge could be an issue as well. Tourist will be asked to leave first

Storm surge is always The main threat, I would never discount that.

I should have mentioned these are my own personal guidelines as a coastal Florida resident for the past 40 years.

In excess of 5 ft storm surge, regardless of CAT classification, I evacuate. Granted this is specific to my locale.

CAT 3 or higher, I evacuate regardless of storm surge threat.

[RL3AO]

This is pretty much the same version of all the other late May/early June eastern GOM systems except this one is better organized due to less shear.

[StruThiO]

there you have it

[Alyono]

This is MUCH more tropical than those "TCs" posted above

[EquusStorm]

Landfalling subtropical systems in the US are rather rare. Subtropical storms in the Gulf themselves are also rare. Less surprising in months such as May, but still.

That said, regardless of what the NHC says, I'm not fully convinced this is still fully subtropical.

[SunnyThoughts]

INIT 28/0030Z 28.4N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

86.2 is fairly close to Ft Walton Beach...moved a little farther west with their landfall prediction.

[bella_may]

Mobile NWS just mentioned showers starting to form near the center

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280252
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 36 20180528
024200 2707N 08457W 8435 01511 //// +143 //// 220034 035 027 003 01
024230 2708N 08458W 8428 01517 //// +150 //// 215034 034 029 000 01
024300 2709N 08459W 8429 01516 //// +147 //// 214034 035 030 002 01
024330 2710N 08501W 8429 01515 //// +146 //// 214036 036 032 002 01
024400 2712N 08502W 8431 01512 //// +150 //// 217035 036 030 001 01
024430 2713N 08503W 8430 01510 //// +150 //// 219037 038 030 000 01
024500 2714N 08504W 8428 01514 //// +148 //// 218038 039 030 000 01
024530 2715N 08506W 8430 01510 //// +150 //// 217040 040 030 000 01
024600 2716N 08507W 8435 01502 //// +150 //// 218040 040 029 000 01
024630 2717N 08508W 8430 01507 //// +149 //// 218040 041 031 001 01
024700 2719N 08510W 8430 01504 //// +153 //// 220042 043 031 001 01
024730 2720N 08511W 8423 01513 //// +147 //// 222041 043 030 001 01
024800 2721N 08512W 8430 01501 //// +148 //// 220043 043 031 001 01
024830 2722N 08513W 8428 01504 //// +147 //// 221043 043 030 001 01
024900 2723N 08515W 8430 01502 //// +151 //// 220044 044 031 001 01
024930 2724N 08516W 8430 01501 //// +153 //// 218043 043 031 000 01
025000 2725N 08517W 8428 01502 //// +154 //// 215044 045 033 000 01
025030 2727N 08518W 8434 01494 //// +139 //// 210046 047 033 004 01
025100 2728N 08520W 8428 01497 //// +133 //// 209046 047 038 004 01
025130 2729N 08521W 8425 01499 //// +132 //// 210043 045 037 005 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280301
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 37 20180528
025200 2730N 08522W 8429 01492 //// +148 //// 213037 042 036 003 01
025230 2731N 08524W 8429 01493 //// +143 //// 217037 037 035 000 01
025300 2733N 08525W 8428 01494 //// +143 //// 224037 038 037 001 01
025330 2734N 08526W 8427 01491 //// +152 //// 223037 039 038 001 01
025400 2735N 08527W 8428 01488 //// +149 //// 225037 037 040 001 01
025430 2736N 08529W 8428 01485 //// +137 //// 224038 039 041 000 01
025500 2737N 08530W 8430 01482 //// +150 //// 224035 037 038 001 05
025530 2738N 08531W 8436 01475 //// +152 //// 228036 036 038 000 01
025600 2739N 08532W 8421 01489 //// +139 //// 228036 037 040 009 05
025630 2740N 08534W 8442 01465 //// +149 //// 231038 039 037 008 01
025700 2741N 08535W 8428 01478 //// +152 //// 230039 039 029 000 01
025730 2743N 08536W 8432 01471 //// +158 //// 227039 041 031 000 01
025800 2744N 08537W 8429 01474 //// +159 //// 228038 039 032 000 01
025830 2745N 08539W 8430 01470 //// +154 //// 228039 040 033 003 01
025900 2746N 08540W 8433 01465 //// +142 //// 228038 040 033 001 01
025930 2747N 08541W 8429 01467 //// +152 //// 231039 039 035 000 01
030000 2748N 08542W 8429 01465 //// +159 //// 232039 039 034 001 01
030030 2749N 08543W 8429 01463 //// +161 //// 235038 039 035 001 01
030100 2750N 08545W 8429 01458 //// +164 //// 238038 039 035 000 01
030130 2751N 08546W 8429 01456 //// +162 //// 241037 038 036 001 01
$$
;

[Janie2006]

Not much here, but that's to be expected in a situation like this. Wind is gusting a wee bit, but nothing exceptional, not even rain showers as of yet.

*However*, there are fools along the coast from Dauphin Island to Panama City who seem to think that the NHC and the beach patrols are just joking about the red flag warnings. At least 6 people had to be rescued from rip currents along the northern Gulf Coast today.

Stay. Out. Of. The. Water!!!

[Twisted-core]

winds are screaming @walton beach atm 12- 14 mph
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDTS

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap3.php?map=usa

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280311
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 38 20180528
030200 2752N 08547W 8429 01453 //// +162 //// 242035 037 035 000 01
030230 2753N 08548W 8429 01451 //// +162 //// 246031 034 034 000 01
030300 2755N 08549W 8429 01450 //// +164 //// 251026 027 035 001 01
030330 2756N 08551W 8432 01447 //// +162 //// 248027 027 033 001 01
030400 2757N 08552W 8426 01450 //// +165 //// 247024 026 031 000 01
030430 2758N 08553W 8429 01443 //// +165 //// 252023 023 031 000 01
030500 2800N 08553W 8429 01443 //// +167 //// 260020 023 030 000 01
030530 2801N 08554W 8428 01442 //// +170 //// 267018 019 025 001 05
030600 2802N 08555W 8429 01437 //// +168 //// 264016 017 024 000 01
030630 2804N 08555W 8428 01437 //// +164 //// 258017 018 021 000 01
030700 2806N 08555W 8425 01438 //// +163 //// 257016 018 021 001 01
030730 2807N 08556W 8432 01430 //// +163 //// 263014 015 020 000 01
030800 2809N 08556W 8430 01429 //// +166 //// 266012 013 019 000 01
030830 2810N 08556W 8428 01430 //// +165 //// 268010 012 019 000 01
030900 2812N 08557W 8432 01424 //// +174 //// 265010 010 018 001 01
030930 2814N 08557W 8430 01425 //// +176 //// 269010 011 017 000 01
031000 2815N 08557W 8430 01422 //// +178 //// 277006 008 017 000 01
031030 2817N 08557W 8432 01423 //// +180 //// 298003 006 017 000 05
031100 2818N 08556W 8426 01425 //// +180 //// 012001 003 016 000 01
031130 2820N 08556W 8428 01423 //// +182 //// 079003 003 016 000 01
$$
;