WPAC: MALIKSI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Location: 5.0°N 135.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A

[NotSparta]

[euro6208]

12z GFS with a peak of 899mb. EURO with 986 mb. Both recurves with the latter has development further west barely missing Visayas and Luzon.

[euro6208]

00z GFS weaker 907mb. Very close for Okinawa.

[euro6208]

Interesting days ahead.

LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N
134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF
FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
A 310042Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS PRIMARILY 15 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME
20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. A 310040Z MHS
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST WITH DEEPENING POCKETS NOT
YET WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT TIME OF
INTENSIFICATION, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THEIR
SOLUTION. ECMWF SHOWS AN ALTERNATE TRACK SOLUTION, MOVING THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Ewiniar and Maliksi will be the next two names that will be used for these two areas when they develop.

[euro6208]

90W INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC May 31, 2018:

Location: 5.6°N 133.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Very deep convection west of the estimated center.

[euro6208]

Not buying in anything outside of EURO/GFS/HWRF but other model solutions have this becoming the more dominant system and swallowing up 99W (JMA, CMC) and to a lesser extend (NAVGEM).

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.7N 134.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 400
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311142Z OSCAT IMAGE DEPICT BROAD CIRCULATION
STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE, WITH 15-20 KT WINDS STARTING TO WRAP INTO
THE LLC AND WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. SSTS REMAIN
WARM (28-29C) EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. VWS IS CURRENTLY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) IN THE
VICINITY OF 90W, AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH IS FACILITATING
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS
DISAGREE ON TRACK, WITH MOST TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTH OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES IN THE LATER TAUS,
WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON 90W DEVELOPING IN THE TAU 48-72 RANGE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Location: 8.2°N 129.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 129.4E, APPROXIMATELY 225
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010119Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
FACILITATING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. SSTS REMAIN WARM (28-29C) EAST
OF THE PHILIPPINES AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS DISAGREE ON TRACK, WITH MOST TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES IN THE LATER
TAUS, WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE
IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

[cycloneye]

Location: 8.4°N 129.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

[euro6208]

Models less bullish on this now.

A circulation (Invest Area 90W) could be found just to the west of
Palau this morning near 8N130E. An area of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with low-level convergence east of
the circulation can be found to the west of Palau. Models move the
circulation slowly towards the northwest. Current predictions show
the circulation moving towards the Philippines. Yesterday the models
showed the circulation increasing in strength, but now they keep it
weak. The earlier forecast had showers and thunderstorms moving into
Palau today. As mentioned above, the showers remain west of Palau
this morning. Models do show the showers eventually moving in by the
afternoon. The scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
persist through tonight.I

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 129.4E, APPROXIMATELY 239
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012206Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SSTS EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES REMAIN (28-29C) SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OF
CONCERN. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE ON THE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN TRACK NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES BUT
DISAGREE ON EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

Location: 7.7°N 128.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

[euro6208]

PROXIMATELY 199
NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO OCCUR. A 020058Z MHS 89GHZ METOP-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THERE IS SPORADIC CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SSTS EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES (28-29C) ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND REACH
WARNING CRITERIA BUT DIFFER ON TRACK, INTENSITY, AND TIMING. GFS
PLACES THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWEST THEN WEST TRAJECTORY WHILE NAVGEM
SHOWS THE SYSTEM ON AN EASTERLY TRACK BEFORE MAKING A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 128.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY326
NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WITH SMALL CIRCULATIONS SURROUNDING
AN OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION. A 030039Z METOP-B AND 030116Z METOP-A
ASCAT PASSES REVEALED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WAS APPROXIMATELY
200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS INVEST AREA. THE NEW LOCATION
DEPICTS THIS RELOCATION. A 030118Z MHS 89GHZ METOP-A MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SSTS EAST
OF THE PHILIPPINES (28-29C) ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION DOES
DEVELOP AND TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BUT HAVE EASED OFF ON
INTENSIFICATION AND VARY ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS no longer develops this. It interacts with 91W and merges with it.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 129.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WITH SMALL CIRCULATIONS
SURROUNDING AN OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION. A 030039Z METOP-B AND
030116Z METOP-A ASCAT PASSES REVEALED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
WAS APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS INVEST AREA.
THE NEW LOCATION DEPICTS THIS RELOCATION. A 030118Z MHS 89GHZ METOP-
A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.
WARM SSTS EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES (28-29C) ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION DOES
DEVELOP AND TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BUT HAVE EASED OFF ON
INTENSIFICATION AND VARY ON TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.