2018 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

18z FV3. Has the two interacting off the MX coast for a bit in the long range.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 2 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers is centered a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to support development of this
system over the next several days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form on Wednesday or Thursday while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

20%-90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 3 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is centered
a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are forecast to support development of this
system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form on Wednesday or Thursday while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a Cat 3 for the 9th

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 3 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast
to support development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form on Wednesday or Thursday while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[AnnularCane]

Still no invest?

[hurricanes1234]

I've noticed that EPAC systems usually take a bit longer to get their invest title.

[Yellow Evan]

I've noticed that EPAC systems usually take a bit longer to get their invest title.

Well EPAC storms are generally have less for a lack of a better term complexity in their forecasts so less of an urge for the NHC to seek the data they get when they call something an invest

[NDG]

Interesting of how the Euro is not aggressive at all for development over the next 72 hours while the GFS is.

[cycloneye]

Interesting of how the Euro is not aggressive at all for development over the next 72 hours while the GFS is.

Overall,Euro is weaker than GFS on the first one but are the same developing the second system.

[cycloneye]

For the second system is the opposite NDG as Euro is a little more stronger than GFS and on the track are different. Same timeframe at 240 hours.

GFS



Euro

[Yellow Evan]

Major difference in setup in day 5



ECMWF has more of a ridge extending more south leading to a shorter window of favorable conditions.



GFS has this moving NW right into Soccoro Island on a parallel track



FV3 is the most reasonable through day 5 but long-term not so much as it has an interaction with the second system.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with two big long-trackers in the EPAC:

[cycloneye]

Still no invest?

Is imminent that Invest 91E will be up in a few hours.The only thing holding them to put it up may be where a low pressure forms but I guess they have been tracking on best track in a not public version.

[cycloneye]

Near 9N-100W?

[cycloneye]

Ramsdis loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Kingarabian]

Near 9N-100W?

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/images/latest/tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1.gif[img]

Should be tagged anytime now. Looks good on satellite to warrant 50% development chances in the next 48 hours IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Large disturbance. Both the Euro and the GFS solutions make sense. It could take a bit more time to develop due to its size, but because of improving conditions and good structure, it could also take off within the next 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

Near 9N-100W?

Are we looking to the right at the second system?

[cycloneye]

Yikes.943 mbs.