WPAC: EWINIAR - Post-Tropical

[Twisted-core]

12z GFS thinks the TD will begin wrapping the eastern side on monday..

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BECAUSE THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS 05W IS IN AN AREA WITH
LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL IN
HAINAN PRIOR TO TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL TAU 36 WHEN DECREASING VWS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION TO 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 BUT THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS OVER 150 NM
BY TAU 48. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STR, ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, AND BEGIN A GRADUAL RECURVE
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS AS IT NEARS
MAINLAND CHINA BY TAU 120. THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND
TRACK SPEED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK AND JUST EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACCELERATION SINCE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

EURO still showing 05W to stall over Hainan Island/Southern China for 5 or so days before taking it southeastward toward Luzon.




GFS on an eastward track towards Taiwan.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5
(25 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL
OVER EASTERN HAINAN ISLAND AT TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WHEN VWS WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE AND ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 35
KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON HAINAN. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS LENDING OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INITIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
BEGINS TO BUILD IN.THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT HAINAN ISLAND INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA BRIEFLY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE LEIZHOU
PENINSULA. PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 72 WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN CONSENSUS MEMBERS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 040027

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE)

B. 04/0000Z

C. 15.69N

D. 110.20E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

TXPQ24 KNES 032203
TCSWNP

A. 05W (NONAME)

B. 03/2030Z

C. 15.7N

D. 110.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON MET DUE TO THE BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T1.5 (25 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POOR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
HAMPERING INTENSIFICATION. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER
EASTERN HAINAN ISLAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. AFTER TAU 12, DECREASING
VWS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, ALLOWING TD 05W TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. ONCE OVER LAND, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE GENERAL TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GUIDANCE LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, BRIEFLY TRACK BACK
OVER WATER, AND MAKE SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN LEIZHOU
PENINSULA. THE BRIEF PERIOD BACK OVER WATER WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AND THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.
AROUND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TRACK DIRECTION SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING STR BEGINS TO BUILD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS TRACKS AND
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTRIBUTES TO OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 040909

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (W OF PALAWAN)

B. 04/0830Z

C. 15.91N

D. 110.70E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/0603Z 15.87N 110.53E ATMS


RICHARDSON


TXPQ24 KNES 040930
TCSWNP

A. 05W (NONAME)

B. 04/0830Z

C. 15.7N

D. 110.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. LOW
LEVEL CENTER DEFINED BY CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES LESS THAN 1.25 DEG FROM SMALL
COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN DT=1.5. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[euro6208]

[doomhaMwx]

More GFS and ECMWF ensembles are now showing it eventually passing through the Luzon Strait...

[euro6208]

This will be interesting to see if it pans out. Eastward moving and strengthening typhoon?

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH THE LLCC TUCKING UNDER RECENTLY FLARING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T1.0 AND T1.5 (25 KTS) IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL OUTFLOW AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT EQUATORWARD OF 05W BUT POOR POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INTENSIFICATION IS HAMPERED BY HIGH (20-25
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 05W HAS PROPAGATED NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BECAUSE 05W JOGGED TO THE NORTHEAST,
ITS FORECAST TRACK NO LONGER TAKES IT DIRECTLY OVER HAINAN ISLAND.
AS 05W ENTERS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH WITH
DECREASED VWS AND REMAINS OVER WATER TO THE EAST OF HAINAN, IT WILL
INTENSIFY BY TAU 48 TO 35 KTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. ONCE OVER LAND IN
CHINA AT TAU 96, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN 05W TO
BELOW 25 KTS BY TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TO
THE WEST OF CONSENSUS, AS CONSENSUS IS SKEWED BY SEVERAL HIGHLY
DIVERGENT OUTLIERS THAT MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST. THERE IS
HIGH EAST-WEST MODEL SPREAD IN LATER TAUS DUE TO AN UNCERTAIN
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A PROJECTED STRONG CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE
AOR TO THE NORTHEAST, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[Twisted-core]

Interesting storm maybe. Been sheared most of its life. Ens are hinting a recurve in the track with the storm
bein picked up by a trough to its N..


https://imgur.com/LEsajdq



https://imgur.com/LNOM1eZ



https://imgur.com/vindmzo

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
050649Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE POCKET OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 050138Z OSCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
AREAS OF 30 KNOT WINDS. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS) AND RJTD OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 05W IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BENEFITING FROM GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TD 05W IS TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST.
TD 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH INCLUDE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS. HOWEVER, AS TD 05W
APPROACHES LAND IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CHINA. TD 05W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY
BEFORE TAU 48 WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 30 KNOTS. TD 05W WILL THEN
TRAVEL INLAND AND DISSIPATE TO 20 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND STILL SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD IN THE
FORECAST TRACKS. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

WINDSAT shows this is a tropical storm

[Yellow Evan]

05/1430 UTC 19.9N 111.0E T2.0/2.0 05W -- West Pacific

[Alyono]

http://eng.nmc.cn/typhoon/publish/obser ... asic.html#

radar signature is that of a tropical storm as well. Glad I upgraded this at 1500 UTC

[euro6208]

Upgraded to the 4th TS of the season.

WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE)
WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP FLARING CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND, COVERING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A 051424Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 30 AND 35
KT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND
T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. THE INITIAL WIND FIELD IS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC WITH HIGHER WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
SECTOR. OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS BETWEEN 40-50 NM AWAY SHOW
PRESSURE FALLS, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ONLY REPORTED AROUND 10-
12 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 05W IS EXPERIENCING
LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS TAPPING INTO THE JET STREAM, AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS), WHICH
ENABLED IT TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. TS 05W
MOVED NORTHWESTWARD IN THE PAST 6 HOURS, WEST OF THE PREDICTED
MODEL TRACK. WHILE IT SLOWED SLIGHTLY, IT DID NOT SLOW TO THE
EXTENT THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS PREDICTED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WHICH IS
LOCATED TO THE EAST. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS
BY TAU 12 DUE TO THE LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. TS 05W WILL ALSO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12 AS IT IS
PROPAGATING FASTER THAN WAS EXPECTED. AFTER LANDFALL, TS 05W
WILL THEN TRAVEL INLAND AND DISSIPATE TO 20 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
SOME DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS, ECMF, AND JGSM,
DEPICTS A SLOWDOWN AND DUE WEST MOVEMENT IMMEDIATELY, BEFORE
RESUMING A NORTHWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TS 05W NORTH OR NORTHWEST WITHOUT THE SIGNIFICANT
SLOWDOWN AND WESTWARD JOG. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Another unnamed TS this year. Such a waste as they did not get any names.