2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro and EPS gonna be interesting.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro again shows nothing, and it's worth noting that not one EPS member shows GOM development through 7 days:



PC: Ryan Maue - http://www.weathermodels.com

[USTropics]

I’m still watching for the feature along the NGOM, as the 00z ECMWF operational is showing quite a bit of rainfall, regardless of development (ECMWF ensemble probability of development has dropped from ~50% at 12z to ~40% at 00z; see last graph below).

As the axis of the mid-level trough currently located over the SE CONUS pushes eastward and extends towards the south over the NGOM, the ECMWF is persistent on developing a surface reflection near the panhandle of FL. Both the ECMWF/GFS are in agreement on the axis extending into the GOM at 24 hours:



Both are also in agreement that an elongated, cutoff mid-upper level low will materialize shortly after in the GOM:



This is where things begin to diverge, as the ECMWF is favoring vorticity on the NE flank over the FL panhandle, while the the GFS favors vorticity on the SW flank in the GOM. When the trough axis pushes off the eastern seaboard on Friday/Saturday, nothing remains behind on the GFS. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has sufficiently worked the mid-upper level low down to the surface, and we have a reflection leftover:



The 00z ECMWF feature meanders near the panhandle for a few days (even does a small cyclonic loop). It remains close enough to the shoreline to actually show slight signs of development before heading E and ejecting off the EC near Jacksonville:



The ECMWF ensembles have been steadily hinting at signs of development in this location over the past 3-4 days as well, and while I don't personally expect any development, there could be ample vorticity to pull in moisture for a few days in this region:


Regardless of any development, if the ECMWF solution were to verify, it could again be a lot of rain for northern Florida:

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS run is much stronger with potential Beryl, showing it as an intensifying 974 mb tropical cyclone making landfall near Pensacola on 6/15.

[Steve H.]

Frontal boundary hung up in the gulf with large area of showers and thunderstorms south of the Florida panhandle this morning. Always have to watch these areas for development as we get into June.

[Aric Dunn]

only 3 to 4 days until the GFS/CMC/ICON start so show increased convection and vorticity in the SW carrib. so time to start watching for convection increases...

[TheStormExpert]

Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.

[txwatcher91]

only 3 to 4 days until the GFS/CMC/ICON start so show increased convection and vorticity in the SW carrib. so time to start watching for convection increases...

CMC showed a weak system forming in the Caribbean last night and the 06z ICON showed a lot of convection in the same general area the GFS develops something. Considering how well the GFS did with the evolution of Alberto, long before any other models caught on, I would give it the highest probability of being right vs the Euro which was slow to catch on to Alberto and then too strong/far west with it.

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.

Well it is Joe B. afterall..

[NDG]

Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.

Well it is Joe B. afterall..

He’s an Euro hugger, that’s why he’s not buying it.

[TheStormExpert]

Sorry but I’m not buying the Caribbean/Gulf storm! Heck, Joe B. isn’t buying still either. Likely early season feedback.

Well it is Joe B. afterall..

He’s an Euro hugger, that’s why he’s not buying it.

Why should we buy it when the East Pacific is in high-gear?

[NDG]

Well it is Joe B. afterall..

He’s an Euro hugger, that’s why he’s not buying it.

Why should we buy it when the East Pacific is in high-gear?

1985 was very active year in the EPAC off the coast of MX but it still managed to be very active along the gulf coast of the US.

[Aric Dunn]

Well it is Joe B. afterall..

He’s an Euro hugger, that’s why he’s not buying it.

Why should we buy it when the East Pacific is in high-gear?

If your going to bring up climo or statistics with the argument that the atlantic is typically quiet when east pac is active..dont bother.

There are many many examples of the east pac having a hurricane as one rages in the carrib or gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

He’s an Euro hugger, that’s why he’s not buying it.

Why should we buy it when the East Pacific is in high-gear?

1985 was very active year in the EPAC off the coast of MX but it still managed to be very active along the gulf coast of the US.

But wouldn’t an active East Pacific leave subsidence and shear across the Gulf and Caribbean?

[Dean4Storms]

See the 00z ECM dropped the TC idea into Panama City this weekend, hope so as I was looking forward to some beach time this weekend. But still need to monitor that tail end of the front in the Gulf.

[crownweather]

One thing to point out regarding the difference between the European model forecasting no tropical development in the Caribbean and the GFS/Canadian models forecasting tropical development in the Caribbean is the position of the second forecast East Pacific tropical cyclone.

The European model is about 24 hours slower in track as compared to the GFS and Canadian model. This makes a difference in the wind shear profile across the Caribbean as a quicker exit of the Eastern Pacific TC could lead to a more favorable environment across the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.

[NDG]

I’m still watching for the feature along the NGOM, as the 00z ECMWF operational is showing quite a bit of rainfall, regardless of development (ECMWF ensemble probability of development has dropped from ~50% at 12z to ~40% at 00z; see last graph below).

As the axis of the mid-level trough currently located over the SE CONUS pushes eastward and extends towards the south over the NGOM, the ECMWF is persistent on developing a surface reflection near the panhandle of FL. Both the ECMWF/GFS are in agreement on the axis extending into the GOM at 24 hours:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CzfyhDA.png

Both are also in agreement that an elongated, cutoff mid-upper level low will materialize shortly after in the GOM:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Vt3ZrNI.png

This is where things begin to diverge, as the ECMWF is favoring vorticity on the NE flank over the FL panhandle, while the the GFS favors vorticity on the SW flank in the GOM. When the trough axis pushes off the eastern seaboard on Friday/Saturday, nothing remains behind on the GFS. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has sufficiently worked the mid-upper level low down to the surface, and we have a reflection leftover:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/T4FFMhm.png

The 00z ECMWF feature meanders near the panhandle for a few days (even does a small cyclonic loop). It remains close enough to the shoreline to actually show slight signs of development before heading E and ejecting off the EC near Jacksonville:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/V3rjcvw.png

The ECMWF ensembles have been steadily hinting at signs of development in this location over the past 3-4 days as well, and while I don't personally expect any development, there could be ample vorticity to pull in moisture for a few days in this region:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/62vFiFR.png

Regardless of any development, if the ECMWF solution were to verify, it could again be a lot of rain for northern Florida:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/THbCATR.png

One thing that I noticed the last couple of years is that the Euro loves forecasting cyclogenesis along frontal boundaries/troughs that reach the northern GOM during the summer which eventually don't turn much into anything.
There's is no way tropical or subtropical development will occur right underneath an UL low/trough like the Euro has been forecasting, it usually takes time for that to happen, better chance to the SE of it over the Caribbean where UL divergence may help a surface low develop next week, IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

One thing to point out regarding the difference between the European model forecasting no tropical development in the Caribbean and the GFS/Canadian models forecasting tropical development in the Caribbean is the position of the second forecast East Pacific tropical cyclone.

The European model is about 24 hours slower in track as compared to the GFS and Canadian model. This makes a difference in the wind shear profile across the Caribbean as a quicker exit of the Eastern Pacific TC could lead to a more favorable environment across the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.

Yeah it will all come down to placement. Could see suppresed convection or enhanced convection. The surfaces will be there.. just needs to the upper support. Even divergent wind shear.

Also check euro simulated IR. Showing more deep convection the last couole runs.

[NDG]

Why should we buy it when the East Pacific is in high-gear?

1985 was very active year in the EPAC off the coast of MX but it still managed to be very active along the gulf coast of the US.

But wouldn’t an active East Pacific leave subsidence and shear across the Gulf and Caribbean?

For most of the Caribbean yes, but for the NW Caribbean and GOM could be a different story, I was really shocked when I saw that in 1985 the EPAC had the third busiest hurricane season but the GOM was very active.

[wxman57]

Euro was upgraded (changed) yesterday. Will be interesting to see how it does with TCs this year.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2018/ifs-upgrade-improves-extended-range-weather-forecasts