2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[NDG]

18Z GFS ensembles, while not particularly enthusiastic, are a good bit to the right of the GFS operational going through or near Southern Florida:

https://s15.postimg.cc/5vts7p8vv/gfs-em ... atl_29.png

Given shear which would cause the center to reform further east a track toward south Florida is a very reasonable solution.

SSTs are a bit higher so the intensity may be ramped up a bit compared to Alberto if other factors are not more inhibitory than they were during Alberto.

Yeap, currently low 80s vs upper 70s just 10 days ago.

[LarryWx]

That is 2 more than it did yesterday lol

Point taken.

The EPS remains very quiet although it now has 1 TS in the N GOM 6/14-5 fwiw. So, yes one more than yesterday. But keep in mind that that's only 1 of 50 members.

I'm actually seeing more than one EPS member showing development, but most on the 10-14 day range instead of the 7-10 day range.

I was just talking about the 7-10 day range. I also saw a few lows in the W GOM later in the run but didn't consider those relevant to the potential system being discussed.

[NDG]

Point taken.

The EPS remains very quiet although it now has 1 TS in the N GOM 6/14-5 fwiw. So, yes one more than yesterday. But keep in mind that that's only 1 of 50 members.

I'm actually seeing more than one EPS member showing development, but most on the 10-14 day range instead of the 7-10 day range.

I was just talking about the 7-10 day range. I also saw a few lows in the W GOM later in the run but didn't consider those relevant to the potential system being discussed.

There are few also out of the W Caribbean. The trend has ben one to two more than the previous runs.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seems like the usual model dance for western Caribbean development: GFS picks it up first, makes it unreasonably strong, ECMWF shows dada; then the GFS will drop it, the ECMWF will pick it up, and then the GFS picks it up, again. Sanity.

[Aric Dunn]

00z GFS development starts showing end of june 9th. by the 10th its on the move.

[NDG]

0z CMC so far tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

CMC also showing signs around the 10th and 11th..

[Aric Dunn]

same with 00z ICON.. 10th into 11th.. though not very well defined at the surface.

[NDG]

According to the GFS we should start seeing convection ramp up across the SW Caribbean as early as this weekend then a vorticity develop by Mon-Tuesday time frame.

[NDG]

[Dylan]

According to the GFS we should start seeing convection ramp up across the SW Caribbean as early as this weekend then a vorticity develop by Mon-Tuesday time frame.

Very consistent. Definitely has some merit. Canadian with a similar solution, and the ICON also has a disturbance.

[Aric Dunn]

According to the GFS we should start seeing convection ramp up across the SW Caribbean as early as this weekend then a vorticity develop by Mon-Tuesday time frame.

yeah the actual convection starts as early as friday with the 850 mb vorticity already in place by saturday into sunday.
by 18z on suday gfs is already 850 mb established and drifting north.

[NDG]

Stronger on this run.

[Steve]

GFS low resolution operational has a 967/968mb system hitting around Grand Bay, AL about at the AL/MS state line in 8.25 days from 00z. If I have that right, that’s next Friday at 1:00am.

[northjaxpro]

GFS staying very consistent with a Florida Panhandle or Mobile, AL landfall for June 15 the last several runs counting this 0Z run. Stronger showing potential Beryl as well!

[Dylan]

Stronger on this run.

Not moving up in time either. Consistent with a Thursday night landfall. Watch out if the EURO jumps on!

[SouthFloridawx]

CMC 00Z - 6/16

[chaser1]

GFS low resolution operational has a 967/968mb system hitting around Grand Bay, AL about at the AL/MS state line in 8.25 days from 00z. If I have that right, that’s next Friday at 1:00am.

The take i'm getting on this, is that this might end up as more of a "rich-mans" Alberto lol. Fully tropical in development, but of course a bit less intense than present GFS wants to indicate and perhaps just over the min. hurricane threshold when all is said and done. Getting to around 150 hours, its hard to imagine the EURO not soon getting on board with this (unless of course, the GFS is entirely out to lunch). I'm plainly seeing the time frame moving closer so am giving the edge to the GFS with regard to genesis and overall general motion.

[chaser1]

I probably never did go far back enough in todays posts but, has anyone referenced what the 12Z UK was indicating?

[Siker]

Speaking of the UKMET, anyone have the link to the UKMET text output that updates right at 11:20 central time? Lost it after last season.