2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[LarryWx]

1. The 0Z CDN ensemble actually shows two members near H strength 6/16-7 hitting the north central Gulf coast.
2. The 0Z GEFS continues to show a TD-TS threat to FL from a fair number of members 6/13-4.
3. Will the 0Z Euro remain quiet or will it finally show signs of caving? The battle is on! Edit: So far, the Euro is showing no signs of caving as it never has the 850 mb vorticity in the SW Caribbean that the GFS/CMC have 6/10-1.

[chaser1]

Speaking of the UKMET, anyone have the link to the UKMET text output that updates right at 11:20 central time? Lost it after last season.

I had to dig, but found this one link I often reference for the UK. https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
It's 7 day model doesn't quite reach the genesis period that GFS is indicating, however we're nearing its forecast reach in about 24 hours

[TheStormExpert]

The 00z Euro is ...

Either this will be a big win or bust for the GFS. With the Euro being said to have been updated within the last few days gives the GFS a little more credence.

Btw, 00z EPS Ensembles are ever so slightly more bullish in intensity with the several members that do show development.



Also, when looking at the 00z GFS Simulated IR for 198hrs. when this is forecasted to peak as a decent hurricane it doesn't look very impressive for that intensity making you wonder if the GFS is up to its usual tricks again.

[Weather150]

06z GFS continues to show development, starting at 126 hrs.

[GCANE]

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS a good bit weaker due to it trying to reform a center in the Gulf.

[GCANE]

Looks like a tug of war in the GOM in getting moisture from the EPAC thru Panama and Yucatan and entraining dry air from northern Mexico

[GCANE]

Interesting very low 355K PV trough ahead of its path making landfall on the CONUS coast.
This indicates possible strengthening as it approaches the coast.

[northjaxpro]

Well, this had been the trend of the potential cyclone intensifying up to landfall on the GFS runs up until the 06Z run this morning.GFS had it down to the low 970s mb range in the 0Z last night.

[Aric Dunn]

Well all this development is still completely dependent on how well organized the second east pac system gets.

[tropicwatch]

Significant increase in 850mb vorticity in the eastern GOM but limited convection and increasing convection in the western Caribbean. I think there might be something brewing and maybe the euro will come onboard today or tomorrow.

[Evil Jeremy]

From this far out, it seems like this could be an Alberto repeat. Is that a fair assessment?

[txwatcher91]

From this far out, it seems like this could be an Alberto repeat. Is that a fair assessment?

If a system does develop as the GFS shows, it certainly looks like a similar track and intensity could transpire. There looks like a lot of dry air around in the GOM, similar to what Alberto struggled with, and combined with shear that will probably keep the lid on intensification. Being 5-6 days out from potential genesis there is a huge gap between GFS/CMC and the Euro's idea of no development. My money is on the GFS as it's usually really good at picking up on development especially when it shows something consistently for days like it has here and with Alberto.

[boca]

Convection is on the increase down there.

[TheStormExpert]

I’ve asked this with Alberto but what up with all the dry air in the GoM? Is this just typical continental dry air?

[AdamFirst]

I’ve asked this with Alberto but what up with all the dry air in the GoM? Is this just typical continental dry air?

Yeah, looks like it's being sucked up from under the 'death ridge' over Texas. I'm getting mirror images from Alberto here on these runs.

[Aric Dunn]

12z ICON has it moving over Honduras. A whole lot of convection though over the Carrib

[Steve]

12z GFS is running. Looks like the Caribbean system it is showing comes up a little quicker than the 2nd EPAC storm. at 6.25 days (1:00pm CDT next Wednesday), it's passing the western Tip of Cuba. At 156 hours (which would be 7:00pm CDT next Wednesday), it's west of the Dry Torguas and Key West. At 162, it's west of Cape Coral/Estero/Bonita Springs.

[Steve]

GFS = Landfall around 174 hours at 994mb on the low rest version about St. George Island/Apalachicola/Carabelle

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.8N 82.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.06.2018 144 13.8N 82.9W 1008 30