WPAC: MALIKSI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 128.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY
654 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
SURROUNDED ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES BY SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. A 071242Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT
THE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE LLCC. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL AID IN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (5-10KT) AND THERE IS STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (29-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL INTENSIFY AND REACH WARNING CRITERIA
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN LATER TAUS.
HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER WITH WHEN AND WHERE THAT TURN WILL OCCUR AND
THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 072126

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (E OF LUZON)

B. 07/2100Z

C. 16.88N

D. 126.91E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

TXPQ26 KNES 072113
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 07/2030Z

C. 17.0N

D. 127.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=1.0 MET=1.0 PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/1849Z 16.6N 126.6E SSMI


...FISHER

[euro6208]

ASCAT caught the western portion of the system.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 180608 0000 17.5N 127.4E WPAC 35 996

Very large Monsoon system with 35 knot winds.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

06W MALIKSI 180608 0000 17.5N 127.4E WPAC 40 994

Now the 5th TS of the season.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06W MALIKSI 180608 0000 17.5N 127.4E WPAC 40 994

Now the 5th TS of the season.

Didn't this become a TS as soon as the JMA upgraded it?

[euro6208]

06W MALIKSI 180608 0000 17.5N 127.4E WPAC 40 994

Now the 5th TS of the season.

Didn't this become a TS as soon as the JMA upgraded it?

Upgrade based on 1 min. JMA= 10 min.

[euro6208]

Maliksi translated means fast and furious. Not an ideal name for such slow moving and slow developing storm.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FORMER MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT HAS CONSOLIDATED
INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CENTER. INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 082225Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THIS POSITION, SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUD BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUT FLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHWEST. INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED HIGHER
THAN A JTWC DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
DUE TO A 082100Z SHIP OBSERVATION OF 45 KNOTS APPROXIMATELY
120 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. ALSO, DVORAKS ARE EXPECTED TO
UNDERESTIMATE INTENSITY DUE TO THE BROAD AND ASSYMETRIC NATURE OF
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. FROM TAU 36 UNTIL TAU 48
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ALLOWING TS 06W TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS. AFTER
TAU 48, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. TS 06W IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, CULMINATING IN A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH 45 KNOT WINDS AT TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 443 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON 080601Z
SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE PREVIOUS
POSITION WAS ALSO ADJUSTED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM TO THE WEST BASED ON
AN ANALYSIS OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY NOT AVAILABLE DURING THE
PREVIOUS WARNING CYCLE. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SET ABOVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW, BASED ON
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATING 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS AND THE STEADY OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. ANIMATED
MUTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH NEW
DEEP CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMI IMAGERY. CIMSS SATELLITE-DERIVED, UPPER-
LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATES THAT TS 06W LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING AN EQUIVALENT SHIFT IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS ALSO
INCREASED SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND
REORIENT IN RESPONSE TO WAVES IN THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW PATTERN TO THE
NORTH, ALLOWING TS 06W TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS LOW, THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
THE PREVIOUSLY BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES AROUND AN
INCREASINGLY-DEFINED CENTER. BY TAU 48, WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INFLUENCING THE
SYSTEM, PREVENTING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. DIRECT INTERACTION
WITH THE TROUGH AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL INDUCE THE
BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND TRANSITION INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ26 KNES 081541
TCSWNP

A. 06W (MALIKSI)

B. 08/1430Z

C. 19.7N

D. 126.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/WINDSAT/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 0.4
CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.0 AND PT IS 2.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

08/0920Z 19.4N 126.9E WINDSAT
08/1321Z 19.6N 126.2E AMSU


...HOSLEY

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
AN EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE FIELD, MOST OF WHICH IS DISPLACED
EQUATORWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A BROAD
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 081718Z ATMS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE UNCHANGED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. TS 06W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VWS, AND WARM SSTS OF 30-31
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO A MORE NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE STR, RECURVES AND ACCELERATES INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. A MODEST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM IS
EXPECTED AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS REMAIN FAVORABLE, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, COOLING
SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 48, IT WILL
ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE ETT THEN BECOME A COLD
CORE EXTRA TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 082122
TCSWNP

A. 06W (MALIKSI)

B. 08/2030Z

C. 20.8N

D. 127.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 6/10
BANDING FOR A DT=3.0. MET=2.5. PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

08/1924Z 20.9N 127.3E AMSU


...LEE

[mrbagyo]

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.0N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.1N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.4N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.3N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 37.1N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 127.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.

WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED AN EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE FIELD, MOST OF WHICH IS
OFFSET EQUATORWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM THE MSI LOOP AND ON A RAGGED CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 082210Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. TS 06W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION WITH EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VWS, AND
WARM SSTS OF 30-31 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST AND IS NOW TRACKING ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MALIKSI IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. A MODEST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM IS EXPECTED AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS REMAIN
FAVORABLE, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 48, IT WILL
ALSO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE
LOW BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD BANDING AROUND TS 06W WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
090546Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE LLCC
WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW FIX OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) AND A 090429Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 06W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) ALONG WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 30 AND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 06W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TS 06W TO SLOWLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU
12. AN APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH TS 06W BY TAU 36. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE
TS 06W TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. TS 06W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 48, AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//

[Yellow Evan]

09/0830 UTC 22.5N 128.0E T3.0/3.0 MALIKSI -- West Pacific

[Sciencerocks]