NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Avila
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Ian2401 wrote:Doesn't it seem a little weird that the NHC hasn't at least highlighted an area for development at this point? I know they put most of their stock in the Euro, but with many of the other major models showing development in the short term, I would expect at least some kind of mention.
GCANE wrote:Model-to-model runs are showing improving conditions for intensification at CONUS landfall.
Particularly, mid-level moisture and 355K PV.
http://i64.tinypic.com/2nvuik3.png
http://i68.tinypic.com/2njhfew.png
cycloneye wrote:@BigJoeBastardi
If a model has 52 straight runs ( 13 days, 4x a day) with a storm hitting the gulf coast every 6-10 day period it is not a great if it hits one, Besides with the MJO coming into favorable phases and the Euro seeing western gulf lighting up, that is where I am looking,
Aric Dunn wrote:well not that it is a game changer .. but the navgem finally has development too. lol.
HURRICANELONNY wrote:Miami Discussion says the GFS needs to get another upgrade.
Late next week: long range models do not agree on the same
solution. The GFS models lifts a tropical feature north of the
Yucatan and edges it westward, away from Florida. This scenario
would eventually allow for drier air and subsidence over our
region and a decrease in shower and storm activity. The European model (ecmwf)
model, on The Hand, maintains a deep moist layer over South
Florida through Saturday or Sunday. This would allow elevated
precipitation chances to continue. Given the long range GFS seems
to be performing rather poorly lately, would be more inclined to
believe the European model (ecmwf) solution.
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