EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Tropical Storm #Bud has developed over the eastern Pacific, during the time a strong convectively coupled Kelvin Wave is passing the eastern Pacific.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1005788578947923968

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Recent microwave imagery indicate that the inner core of Bud is
better organized with the presence of a mid-level eye feature.
Although Dvorak T-numbers are increasing, none of them support
hurricane intensity yet. On this basis, the initial intensity
has been adjusted upward to 55 kt in this advisory. The environment
is quite favorable for strengthening, and most of the rapid
intensification indexes suggest that this process will occur
during the next 12 to 24 hours. This seems more likely now that
Bud's inner core structure is improving. The official forecast
calls for intensification following closely the corrected consensus
numerical guidance HCCA. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should
begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja
California peninsula.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow around the
periphery of high pressure system over the western United States.
In about 3 days, Bud should reach the western edge of the high, and
the cyclone should begin to turn toward the north-northwest and
then northward. There is high confidence in the track forecast
for the next 3 to 4 days since guidance continues to be in quite
good agreement. This motion should keep the tropical cyclone
offshore of mainland Mexico, but only a small deviation to the right
of the track could bring stronger winds to a portion of the coast
within the area between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. All
interests in that area should closely monitor the progress of Bud.

Even if Bud remains well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico,
large swells should affect that portion of the coast during the next
few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.7N 103.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.7N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 18.4N 107.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1005814337330663424

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the NHC wanted to upgrade to a hurricane, but Dvorak estimates are still catching up.

Presence of a cyan ring on M/W imagery is more evidence for rapid intensification :

[Ntxw]

[Yellow Evan]

Bud has only 36 hours left apparently.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BUD EP032018 06/10/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 69 76 83 94 97 92 86 75 67 58 48
V (KT) LAND 55 63 69 76 83 94 97 92 86 75 67 58 48
V (KT) LGEM 55 64 72 79 86 94 94 88 77 68 59 49 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 8 4 8 9 11 2 9 6 0 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 22 39 359 18 86 115 95 79 288 67 62 79 285
SST (C) 30.3 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.7 26.7 26.1 25.6 24.9 23.8 22.6 21.4
POT. INT. (KT) 168 163 159 154 148 139 128 121 116 110 99 86 74
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.7 -51.3 -50.4 -51.3 -50.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 7 4 5 3 4 3 3 1
700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 83 84 81 79 76 74 71 70 67 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 23 25 28 29 27 27 23 22 20 16
850 MB ENV VOR -6 10 20 30 27 33 40 69 61 71 62 52 25
200 MB DIV 82 98 88 92 135 130 100 100 87 61 32 15 -17
700-850 TADV -8 -9 -9 -11 -7 -4 0 -7 0 -2 -2 -1 -3
LAND (KM) 398 343 314 314 304 292 309 298 295 320 204 97 73
LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.2
LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.1 104.9 105.6 106.3 107.1 107.9 108.2 108.4 108.9 109.6 110.4 111.1
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 5 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 43 25 15 12 10 8 8 4 3 1 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 52.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 4. 9. 11. 9. 7. 3. 1. -1. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 21. 28. 39. 42. 37. 31. 20. 12. 3. -7.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 103.2

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 13.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 7.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 12.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 12.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 8.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 10.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -3.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -38.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.95 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 6.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81% is 5.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 6.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 57% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 50.1% 81.0% 65.6% 56.6% 36.9% 56.9% 46.1% 11.0%
Logistic: 58.6% 75.6% 64.5% 54.4% 38.1% 66.4% 24.9% 1.8%
Bayesian: 60.0% 86.8% 73.5% 68.5% 50.0% 41.6% 18.3% 0.1%
Consensus: 56.2% 81.1% 67.9% 59.8% 41.7% 55.0% 29.8% 4.3%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Ntxw]

That sounds about right. 36-48 hours is the the boundary. Question is will Bud optimize and quickly ramp like Aletta to make the most of it. Main show is within next 24 hours IMO.

[storminabox]

In all honesty, I fully expect Bud to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane. Bud is looking like an absolute beast on satellite right now and looks prime for RI. I can't wait to watch and see what this system does. The EPAC hurricane season is certainly getting off to an active start.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track upgrades to Hurricane

EP, 03, 2018061018, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1038W, 65, 987, HU

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Bud on the next update.

[Kingarabian]

ADT at 4.5 -- 77kts...

SAB still lagging at 3.5.

[hurricanes1234]

If this becomes a major, will it break the record for the earliest forming second major hurricane in the EPAC?

[Ntxw]

If this becomes a major, will it break the record for the earliest forming second major hurricane in the EPAC?

Blanca was earlier in June back in 2015

[Yellow Evan]

If this becomes a major, will it break the record for the earliest forming second major hurricane in the EPAC?

Blanca 15 owns that

Records are harder to break now since 2014-15 broke like half of them lol.

[Yellow Evan]

If you follow strict constraints, T3.5 happens to be reasonable since D2.0/day is the cap for systems below hurricane intensity and this was T1.5 at this time ystersday but SAB is wrong with DT here.

TXPZ23 KNES 101807
TCSENP

A. 03E (BUD)

B. 10/1745Z

C. 15.1N

D. 103.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .8 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 3.5. MET = 3.0 AND PT = 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/1252Z 14.5N 103.0W SSMIS


...KIBLER

[SouthDadeFish]

RI looks very likely at this point and probably already underway. A new convective burst is firing to the SE of the center. The NHC is basically explicitly forecasting RI, with a 30 kt increase over the next 24 h, and that is even probably conservative.

[zeehag]

am I wrong to be nervous of this season and the bud that is hopefully not for me.....patricia was not spozed to be mine, but I got a lapfulla her...
is fairly disconcerting being in an untried zone for canes while living in a boat.
bud is gorgeous. frighteningly beautiful. hopefully water temps keep it from us and on pacific side of baja.
will enjoy seeing its beauty after ri while I hunker harder from its wraths.

[Yellow Evan]

This has 50-60 knot RI per day written all over it. This doesn't have much time since this is moving more north of forecast, but there's enough for this to become a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. If everything goes as planned, this has 24 hours left of 28C water, though I could see a shift to the right in track like we do with these kinds of systems.

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
Tropical Storm #Bud attempting to construct an eyewall this hour:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1005872921972297729

[Visioen]

The EPAC being active: