Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)
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- cycloneye
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Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)
I think is time to have a thread for the SW Caribbean area that mainly GFS has been showing development for many runs and CMC has been showing it too. Although there has not been mentioned in the TWO's,there is an incipient area of convection so that is good to have the new thread.So let's see how things turn out about this if it develops or not so post away the model runs and comments.
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- NotSparta
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Some convection bubbling
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
I was wondering when you would do that. Lol
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- cycloneye
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Aric Dunn wrote:I was wondering when you would do that. Lol
One criteria for making a thread has been met finnally and I am following the S2K order to make a thread.
See here viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109634&p=2126596#p2126596
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
cycloneye wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:I was wondering when you would do that. Lol
One criteria for making a thread has been met finnally and I am following the S2K order to make a thread.
See here viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109634&p=2126596#p2126596
Yep, and i bet the nhc follows suit .. assuming convection persists overnight
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
GFS 18z was looking interesting with the monsoon flow still attached in GOM.
https://imgur.com/VXZz0Ql
https://imgur.com/lMb6QWV
https://imgur.com/HpMvCFx
EPS
https://imgur.com/exvuU1r
https://imgur.com/VXZz0Ql
https://imgur.com/lMb6QWV
https://imgur.com/HpMvCFx
EPS
https://imgur.com/exvuU1r
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Meanwhile the NHC continues to say...buzzers. As a novice, the fact they can't squeeze out one thin dime (10% weak lemon over 5 days) speaks volumes. Let's see if they can toss us something in the next day or two..
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
psyclone wrote:Meanwhile the NHC continues to say...buzzers. As a novice, the fact they can't squeeze out one thin dime (10% weak lemon over 5 days) speaks volumes. Let's see if they can toss us something in the next day or two..
I think it highlights just how little stock they put into the GFS model...and to be honest I can't blame them. The GFS is basically a joke at this point if it's wrong about this storm.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Aric Dunn wrote:wxman22 wrote:The 18z GFS looks more realistic with the strength of the system.
[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018061018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_30.png[/ig]
yeah it spends a lot more time over land. which is likely the case given the set up./
That’s where some of you on this board can help with understanding how well structured this system will be (assuming development). Sometimes even depressions over land can have a well organized structure that enables these systems to develop more rapidly than expected when back over water. One element might be the already apparent vorticity which you have commented on and is forecast for the next48 hours in the SW Caribbean.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Convection still persisting
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B.S. Meteorology from Florida State '24 // Current M.S. Meteorology student at Florida State
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
NDG wrote:Convection and vorticiy have really increased during the day today.
Saved vis loop:
Yes. Some systems seem to have that extra amount of energy or vorticity even when in an embryonic stage. Models that called for a major in the GOM (and that may not happen due to land interaction etc...) may have been picking up on quite a bit of latent potential ( for whatever reason) in this particular June system.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Ian2401 wrote:psyclone wrote:Meanwhile the NHC continues to say...buzzers. As a novice, the fact they can't squeeze out one thin dime (10% weak lemon over 5 days) speaks volumes. Let's see if they can toss us something in the next day or two..
I think it highlights just how little stock they put into the GFS model...and to be honest I can't blame them. The GFS is basically a joke at this point if it's wrong about this storm.
I’ve never been a GFS fan. But it did a solid job with Alberto in May. I had to admit it. Now we have this potential June system. The GFS is not alone in forecasting tropical development from the EPAC/ Carribean monsoonal flow pattern. Alberto came from a similar gyre or area. I think the percentages are in favor of development. Could be seeing actual evidence of development right now in SW Carribean. Let’s see.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
@webberweather
Twin TUTTs in opposing hemispheres are currently coupled to the leading edge of a large CCKW entering stage left from the NE Pacific. The TUTTs further reinforce large-scale upper level divergence and forcing associated w/ the CCKW and could help spur TCG in the Atlantic. Classic
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1005864245895094273
Twin TUTTs in opposing hemispheres are currently coupled to the leading edge of a large CCKW entering stage left from the NE Pacific. The TUTTs further reinforce large-scale upper level divergence and forcing associated w/ the CCKW and could help spur TCG in the Atlantic. Classic
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1005864245895094273
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
CMC , NAVGEM..GFS..all show development..that’s a whole lot of global right there. Can’t discount them all. SW Carib looking juicy tonight..
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- SFLcane
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
ROCK wrote:CMC , NAVGEM..GFS..all show development..that’s a whole lot of global right there. Can’t discount them all. SW Carib looking juicy tonight..
A whole lot of nada...European remains silent.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
SFLcane wrote:ROCK wrote:CMC , NAVGEM..GFS..all show development..that’s a whole lot of global right there. Can’t discount them all. SW Carib looking juicy tonight..
A whole lot of nada...European remains silent.
stop being married to the Euro
how many times does it have to screw up a monsoon genesis before people understand that this is one of the model's biggest weaknesses?
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Alyono wrote:SFLcane wrote:ROCK wrote:CMC , NAVGEM..GFS..all show development..that’s a whole lot of global right there. Can’t discount them all. SW Carib looking juicy tonight..
A whole lot of nada...European remains silent.
stop being married to the Euro
how many times does it have to screw up a monsoon genesis before people understand that this is one of the model's biggest weaknesses?
Are there any examples of monsoon genesis storms in the Atlantic in the past that the Euro missed?
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
CyclonicFury wrote:Alyono wrote:SFLcane wrote:
A whole lot of nada...European remains silent.
stop being married to the Euro
how many times does it have to screw up a monsoon genesis before people understand that this is one of the model's biggest weaknesses?
Are there any examples of monsoon genesis storms in the Atlantic in the past that the Euro missed?
countless...
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- cycloneye
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Ok,that is all about sidebar issues. Any opinions about Eric Webb's message?
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
cycloneye wrote:Ok,that is all about sidebar issues. Any opinions about Eric Webb's message?
the ingredients are there. just that silly land stuff getting in the way lol
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...