Watching Western Caribbean (Is INVEST 91L)
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- TheAustinMan
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Airmass RGB look at the disturbance, though right now what appears to be a mid-level vort/MCV seems to be stealing the show over the surface vorticity. Radar from San Andres overlaid. You can see the trough and dry conditions aloft over in the Western Caribbean.
341 KB. Source: Airmass RGB data plot generated myself. San Andres radar data from http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/radar/index/aoi/ADZ/Reflectividad%20de%20Base%200.5%20deg?scroll_x=0&scroll_y=228&menu1=%23&menu1=%5C%22%23%5C%22
341 KB. Source: Airmass RGB data plot generated myself. San Andres radar data from http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/radar/index/aoi/ADZ/Reflectividad%20de%20Base%200.5%20deg?scroll_x=0&scroll_y=228&menu1=%23&menu1=%5C%22%23%5C%22
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- Tireman4
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
ROCK wrote:06Z NAVGEM stalls at Texas coast and blows it up!!
I love the NAVY sir. ")
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
The 12Z UKMET has no TC.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Watching SW Caribbean
ROCK wrote:06Z NAVGEM stalls at Texas coast and blows it up!!
And the 12z NAVGEM just has a weak low in the BoC .
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- cycloneye
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Hey folks,maybe a mention? So far no TWO as they haved released them very very early in past packages. If they dont mention,at least they are watching and discussimg among them.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
cycloneye wrote:Hey folks,maybe a mention? So far no TWO as they haved released them very very early in past packages. If they dont mention,at least they are watching and discussimg among them.
The lack of even a mention/10% has been underdoing the risk imo. A small risk doesn't mean no risk. They seem to be acting as if it is black and white. Let's see what they do here shortly.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- northjaxpro
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
NDG wrote:X is where I marked the MLC seen on radar off of the coast of Nicaragua tracking NNE.
https://i.imgur.com/EEyArlW.gif
That is about right NDG..A very prominent MLC there just off the Nicaragua coast.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Here it is!
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity
is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and
a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a
large upper-level trough. Little development of this area of
disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to
interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for
some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development,
this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions
of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula
through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity
is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and
a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a
large upper-level trough. Little development of this area of
disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to
interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for
some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. Regardless of development,
this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions
of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula
through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Watching SW Caribbean
Perfect from Mr. Stewart.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Watching SW Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%-20%
Looks like they tagged the trailing piece of vorticity rather than the one with the clear MLC further west. GFS has been unclear as to what actually will develop out of this mess.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%-20%
jaguars_22 wrote:Why they mark it so far down in the Caribbean??
I think because that's near the tropical wave, itself.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%-20%
If you are curious.. the circ is circled in my image i posted.earlier. its just north of the coast of panama. Run the loop..
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%-20%
Nice NHC... finally the mention..now see if it continues to consolidate. Not bad looking right now...yes the NAV trended lower
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%-20%
This reminds me a bit of Barry from 2013.
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%-20%
IT matches well with the current surface winds. could also be multiple vorts out there. but as of right now there is a closed wind field and convection firing over that vort as we speak.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
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I believe the sky is falling...
- gatorcane
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%-20%
Euro remains dead as a doornail, I would say. Also it seems to get buried in northern Mexico this time out through day 5, so while no rainfall map available on TT site, looks like less rain for Texas on this run:
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Re: Watching SW Caribbean: 2 PM TWO=10%-20%
Wednesday Morning at DMAX may be the best shot for genesis.
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