Texas Summer 2018

[bubba hotep]

So does this seemed lock ? Any chance this heads E to Louisiana and misses us . (The wave)

Hard to say, if it stays disorganized then the moisture surge looks to move into Texas and Louisiana. Probably the only way it misses Texas is if a TS forms, moves in to Louisiana and cuts off the flow of moisture for Texas. That also puts Texas on the typically drier side of the storm. This is what earlier runs of the GFS showed.

[Ntxw]

12z gfs gave up on the cat5 in the gulf and more in line with Euro, this is what I was expecting. This is a good thing as more moisture will spread into Texas further inland as well. Again flow from Bud this is almost a lock for widespread tropical rains.

Also this scenario keeps the faucet on after the fact, rather than shutting it off.

It is very hard to get a hurricane in the Gulf when there is a big Hurricane off the Mexican West coast, like what the GFS was trying intensity wise

[Haris]

12z gfs gave up on the cat5 in the gulf and more in line with Euro, this is what I was expecting. This is a good thing as more moisture will spread into Texas further inland as well. Again flow from Bud this is almost a lock for widespread tropical rains.

Also this scenario keeps the faucet on after the fact, rather than shutting it off.

It is very hard to get a hurricane in the Gulf when there is a big Hurricane off the Mexican West coast, like what the GFS was trying intensity wise

Yep. But whats up with the GEFS . They show Lousiana and Alabama getting water logged and we get nothing. They are totally different from GFS op. They want a cyclone apparently still

[Ntxw]

12z gfs gave up on the cat5 in the gulf and more in line with Euro, this is what I was expecting. This is a good thing as more moisture will spread into Texas further inland as well. Again flow from Bud this is almost a lock for widespread tropical rains.

Also this scenario keeps the faucet on after the fact, rather than shutting it off.

It is very hard to get a hurricane in the Gulf when there is a big Hurricane off the Mexican West coast, like what the GFS was trying intensity wise

Yep. But whats up with the GEFS . They show Lousiana and Alabama getting water logged and we get nothing. They are totally different from GFS op. They want a cyclone apparently still

I wouldn't be surprised if that happened initially due to being heavily sheared. Often the eastern side is where the plume is worst. However as it climbs towards the state and meets higher moisture plume from the EPAC then coverage will increase across the state

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro would appear to bring less rainfall to Texas this run with the low-level sheared vorticity tracking into Mexico but not sure looking at TT site, does anybody have some rainfall maps for this 12Z Euro run?

[Haris]

12Z Euro would appear to bring less rainfall to Texas this run with the low-level sheared vorticity tracking into Mexico but not sure looking at TT site, does anybody have some rainfall maps for this 12Z Euro run?

No . It would bring more rain to Central TX! Otherwise Lousiana gets all the rain! Having it track to MX will give TX!!!

[aperson]

weather.us has PWATs and Precip: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/20 ... 0900z.html



Definitely puts us in the dry slot if it validates.

[rwfromkansas]

Model gives and takes away.

[wxman22]

12z Euro still shows heavy rains across the state...

[Ntxw]

You guys are focusing too much on the gulf entity and where it goes run to run. The larger scale pattern is favorable for widespread rainfall regardless

[TeamPlayersBlue]

June sun with lower than average heights and high PW's.... Big big rain makers.

These storms are typically slow movers too.

[hriverajr]

You guys are focusing too much on the gulf entity and where it goes run to run. The larger scale pattern is favorable for widespread rainfall regardless

West and South Texas need rain badly...

[gboudx]

Update from jeff on the Tropics:

The National Hurricane Center is indicating that the feature currently in the SW Caribbean Sea has a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with the eastern extension of the monsoon trough over the extreme SW Caribbean Sea overnight and this morning. Satellite images shows a mid level circulation has likely resulted from the ongoing thunderstorms, but at this time no well defined low level circulation has developed and interaction with the landmasses of central America over the next few days should keep any development chances low.

Late this week into this weekend this system will move into the southern and eventually the western Gulf of Mexico. Overall development chances look to remain on the low side in agreement with most of the current global model forecasts which maintain the feature as a tropical wave axis. A broad weak and ill defined low pressure system could form along some portion of the wave axis this weekend, but it is unclear at this point where this might happen if it were to happen at all.

Regardless of any sort of tropical development, a large plume of deep tropical moisture currently over the western Caribbean Sea will be directed into the central and NW Gulf of Mexico this weekend and likely toward the TX coast at some point during the weekend. Rain chances will likely be increasing as early as Saturday and continue to remain high into early next week. Additionally seas and winds will be building across the offshore waters starting late Friday and into the weekend with the general unsettled pattern likely to be in place.

It is still too early to begin to talk about rainfall totals, but various models are forecasting a fairly significant stream of moisture aimed at the TX coast for much of the weekend.

Forecasts will continue to change over the next several days as this feature becomes better resolved by model guidance. Maintain a close watch on forecasts from trusted sources.

[Cpv17]

Way too early to say, but with the way things are looking now I could be in a sweet spot for some heavy rain totals here in Wharton County.

[JDawg512]

Welcome back Porta, glad to see that your still around and well. Hope that you will be posting regularly again.

[Haris]

Welcome back Porta, glad to see that your still around and well. Hope that you will be posting regularly again.

I chat to Portastorm daily on Twitter so Ill let yall know if anything happened LOL...

[Portastorm]

For those in SE Texas, it looks like they'll be getting soaked by the weekend. For the rest of us, scattered stuff along the I-35 corridor but if the mass of Gulf moisture is forced west by ridging in the eastern and central Gulf next week ... and if we can grab that moisture from Bud in the Pacific ... it might be "game on" for us. A nice 2-4" over several days would be awesome, wouldn't it?!

[Ntxw]

In 2011 this coming week period, DFW (and the rest of Texas) embarked on the beginnings of the Great Heat Wave of '11. From the 13th to the 19th the airport hit 100 or more 7 days in a row peaking at 104.

This year we will have chances of rain and average to slightly below.

...it could be worse

[Tireman4]

In 2011 this coming week period, DFW (and the rest of Texas) embarked on the beginnings of the Great Heat Wave of '11. From the 13th to the 19th the airport hit 100 or more 7 days in a row peaking at 104.

This year we will have chances of rain and average to slightly below.

...it could be worse

I was told never to use that year..ever...LOL....

[dhweather]

12z gfs gave up on the cat5 in the gulf and more in line with Euro, this is what I was expecting. This is a good thing as more moisture will spread into Texas further inland as well. Again flow from Bud this is almost a lock for widespread tropical rains.

Also this scenario keeps the faucet on after the fact, rather than shutting it off.

It is very hard to get a hurricane in the Gulf when there is a big Hurricane off the Mexican West coast, like what the GFS was trying intensity wise

I know, heartbreaking.