ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

[Clearcloudz]

[jaguars_22]

it looks like the top area of thunderstorms is consolidating with the exact spot the nhc marked it at much lower latitude... frisky

[SoupBone]

I can't remember a pre-invest/invest being followed so closely especially in June. I guess we can thank the GFS for the early season attention. While the models backed off yesterday, they're starting to show some signs of life again. Curious to see how this one plays out.

That and Hurricane Harvey. Post-Hurricane PTSD is a real thing. Harvey really shook the people living all along the Texas coast. From Corpus Christi to Houston, to even Western Louisiana.

[SoupBone]

Doesn't seem invest-worthy to me especially with the lackluster model support.

Took a look at the floater and it just looks like sheared convection with nothing at the surface, nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

The only criterion for declaring an invest is that the NHC would like to run model guidance on a disturbance. There doesn't have to be much of a chance of development, nor does the disturbance have to have a specific level of organization.

I missed that you turned 60 recently. You still look 30 in those bike photos you post every now and again though.

That's from all the frigid cold weather he prevents from getting to us each winter. He's like the opposite pole of a magnet to winter storms.

[Haris]

well the euro is opposite of the gfs

[NotSparta]

NotSparta,I added to your first post the link to the thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

Thanks for adding that

[stormlover2013]

Cmc and euro are wet, wed night runs should have a good idea or Thursday morning

[stormreader]

it looks like the top area of thunderstorms is consolidating with the exact spot the nhc marked it at much lower latitude... frisky

Yes the blow-up now is farther south toward the actual center of the wave axis. Might be a sign that shear is relaxing some. Still surprised that both short range and long range NHC percentages for development are as low as they are. Consolidation of storms now (off the Nicaragua coast) perhaps to near the coast for short term development??? Don't know. But there is model support for long term development. Either way I'm guessing percentages should be higher. But let's see how it pans out.

[Clearcloudz]

[GCANE]

Much better definition on 850, 700, & 500mb vorts; albeit not well stacked yet.

[Clearcloudz]

None of the models have been showing this convection that has been firing for much of the day.

[TheStormExpert]

I turn 61 in August. Still enjoy dropping 30 yr-old road bike riders while I'm on my dual-suspension mountain bike.

Hope to get a ride in Saturday before the showers become too numerous. I'm not too concerned about this disturbance being more than a rainmaker. Never got my numbers in for the hurricane contest here. I went with 9/5/2 in the office pool (includes Alberto).

I thought you were going with a season like 1985?

Or do you expect it to be a quieter/weaker version of that year thanks to the increasing likelihood of an El Niño during the season?

[Clearcloudz]

The GFS showed this track a week ago, its still possible and the EURO showed it moving over land by now and land interaction has not taken place yet.

Models are underestimating in my personal opinion.

[Clearcloudz]

850 Vorticity Map

[stormreader]

The GFS showed this track a week ago, its still possible and the EURO showed it moving over land by now and land interaction has not taken place yet.

Models are underestimating in my personal opinion.

Well, that track seems less likely now than it did a week ago. If it were to materialize then we would probably be looking at a more significant system than is presently forecast. On the other hand, I don't discount the fact that the ultimate track might swing back some to the right. I think Tex-Mex area that has been talked about much in last couple of days may be too far left and south.

[Clearcloudz]

The GFS showed this track a week ago, its still possible and the EURO showed it moving over land by now and land interaction has not taken place yet.

Models are underestimating in my personal opinion.

Well, that track seems less likely now than it did a week ago. If it were to materialize then we would probably be looking at a more significant system than is presently forecast. On the other hand, I don't discount the fact that the ultimate track might swing back some to the right. I think Tex-Mex area that has been talked about much in last couple of days may be too far left and south.

I agree

Once this low lifts northward around the corner of Nicaraguan Honduras border into the gulf of Honduras. Typically early seasonal the track is up or up and to the right. I'll keep watching...

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GFS take the current convection and dissipates it within the next 6 to 12 hours. Need to watch that for verification.... If we wake up tomorrow morning and the convection is continuing then were in trouble.

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS take the current convection and dissipates it within the next 6 to 12 hours. Need to watch that for verification.... If we wake up tomorrow morning and the convection is continuing then were in trouble.

So the GFS must see this convection as just shear enhanced lift as it interacts with the trough.
Until there is some evidence of a closed low, that is about what you would expect from the GFS.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GFS take the current convection and dissipates it within the next 6 to 12 hours. Need to watch that for verification.... If we wake up tomorrow morning and the convection is continuing then were in trouble.

So the GFS must see this convection as just shear enhanced lift as it interacts with the trough.
Until there is some evidence of a closed low, that is about what you would expect from the GFS.

Thanks, good to know.

[Haris]

GFS IS SOOOO INCONSISTENT!!! IT LITERALLY SHOWS 10X MORE RAIN FOR TX THIS RUN! SMHHHH