ATL Invest 91L: Models

[Siker]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 27 24 24 27 27 30 30
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 27 24 24 27 27 26 26
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 26 20 24 31 31 33 36 30 21 22 28 30 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 10 7 6 -4 3 -2 0 1 0 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 242 241 237 256 269 272 289 278 271 281 323 319 324
SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.4 27.2 24.3
POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 139 138 137 145 145 144 150 154 145 128 101
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 134 133 132 138 136 134 140 142 132 114 89
200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -54.4 -55.2 -54.8 -55.3 -54.1 -53.7 -52.3 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 8 9 8 11 9
700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 65 66 71 73 74 71 65 59 64 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 6 7 7 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 20 9 0 -3 -35 -34 -21 -6 -14 19 14
200 MB DIV 24 36 52 36 29 48 45 31 27 9 -14 5 28
700-850 TADV 8 8 8 9 15 8 0 1 -5 3 -6 25 -4
LAND (KM) 262 183 143 158 201 277 93 167 426 314 33 -286 -571
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 15.3 16.2 17.2 19.3 21.2 23.1 25.1 26.8 28.3 29.9 31.8
LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.5 81.9 82.4 83.0 84.4 86.0 87.8 89.9 92.7 96.0 98.9 100.9
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 15 16 16 14 13
HEAT CONTENT 14 12 14 16 22 46 41 21 29 29 11 0 0

[wxman22]

The CMC shows it reaching tropical storm strength fwiw.

[TheStormExpert]

No model support, next!

[Alyono]

No model support, next!

Fake news

[Clearcloudz]

Invest 91L

[Tireman4]

No model support, next!

Goodness.....Way too early to say that sir...................

[Stormcenter]

Who needs model support these days anyway? A week ago or so only GFS showed anything of significance brewing this upcoming
weekend. We've seen the models lay eggs many times before in the past in both extremes so nothing surprises me. IMO

[Tireman4]

Who needs model support these days anyway? A week ago or so only GFS showed anything of significance brewing this upcoming
weekend. We've seen the models lay eggs many times before in the past in both extremes so nothing surprises me. IMO

Hurricane Bud, perhaps..was it not forecasted to be a Cat 1...was it not a Cat 4 at one time?

[jaguars_22]

UHH I witnessed first hand.... All the meterologists saying Harvey will only be a strong tropical storm for Texas... Then it was oh it could make a run at cat 1 strength... few hours later this thing is getting its act together quickly maybe a cat 2 or 3 at landfall... final outtake Cat 4 landfall... so anything can happen we have no control over it at all... oh and to add it was only 300 miles off texas coast when they were saying these things...

[AnnularCane]

UHH I witnessed first hand.... All the meterologists saying Harvey will only be a strong tropical storm for Texas... Then it was oh it could make a run at cat 1 strength... few hours later this thing is getting its act together quickly maybe a cat 2 or 3 at landfall... final outtake Cat 4 landfall... so anything can happen we have no control over it at all... oh and to add it was only 300 miles off texas coast when they were saying these things...

Never trust the Gulf!

Not that every storm down there will blow up into a major, of course, but I've seen quite a few of them pull such surprises. I remember almost expecting Katrina to become a Cat 5.

[Tireman4]

UHH I witnessed first hand.... All the meterologists saying Harvey will only be a strong tropical storm for Texas... Then it was oh it could make a run at cat 1 strength... few hours later this thing is getting its act together quickly maybe a cat 2 or 3 at landfall... final outtake Cat 4 landfall... so anything can happen we have no control over it at all... oh and to add it was only 300 miles off texas coast when they were saying these things...

Never trust the Gulf!

Not that every storm down there will blow up into a major, of course, but I've seen quite a few of them pull such surprises. I remember almost expecting Katrina to become a Cat 5.

Humberto..as well

[mcheer23]

Waiting for the 18z early models to show up on the SFWMD website....

[Nimbus]

Looking at the early deep level steering it appears they expect some ridging to be in place over the northern gulf? On the other hand if this remains a sheared system and moves fairly quickly inland maybe there won't be a lot of 7" plus rainfall totals?

[Steve]

UHH I witnessed first hand.... All the meterologists saying Harvey will only be a strong tropical storm for Texas... Then it was oh it could make a run at cat 1 strength... few hours later this thing is getting its act together quickly maybe a cat 2 or 3 at landfall... final outtake Cat 4 landfall... so anything can happen we have no control over it at all... oh and to add it was only 300 miles off texas coast when they were saying these things...

Never trust the Gulf!

Not that every storm down there will blow up into a major, of course, but I've seen quite a few of them pull such surprises. I remember almost expecting Katrina to become a Cat 5.

It did only to relax back to Cat 4/3 landfalls with Cat 5 type surge. I don’t see 91L getting super strong but you never know for sure.

All major MJO guidance gets to Phase 2 in several to ten days. Could be a lot of instability around the SE for a few days regardless of 91L. It will be cool to see how it plays out this weekend into early next week. JMA is most direct and quickest to get there. NCEP’s forecast is fairly close to JMA model touch JMAN for output).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... .shtml#for

[TheStormExpert]

Latest 00z Euro Ensembles are slightly more bullish but still look hostile for much development if any at all.

[Steve]

12Z NAM wants to still close this off in the Western Gulf.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 61312&fh=0

[jaguars_22]

It has the west side of the closed low dry... Also looks to head up more towards houston...

[jaguars_22]

The ICON model is drunk. It keeps the low off Texas coast until Tuesday and slowly strengthens it...

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Seems the experts that were warning about the GFS "false-alarm" hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico were right. Or, you could have just looked at the answer key. (e.g. ECMWF)

[Alyono]

@RyanMaue
Seems the experts that were warning about the GFS "false-alarm" hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico were right. Or, you could have just looked at the answer key. (e.g. ECMWF)

Maue and his horn tooting are getting annoying

How about he explain the clear phantom his favorite EC spewed off of the East Coast