WPAC: INVEST 92W

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.3N 153.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 151.8E, LOCATED OVER CHUUK.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED,
FLARING CONVECTION WITH A 112350Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
EMPHASIZING THAT THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE CENTER. A
112311Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS THERE IS AN ASYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION ON THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE INVEST REMAINS DUE TO
ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.3N 151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION AND A 121154Z MHS
METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
THE INVEST REMAINS DUE TO ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO GUAM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.8N 147.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION AND A 122330Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE WEAK CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED
SURROUNDING THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THERE IS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
THE INVEST REMAINS DUE TO ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO GUAM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 146.9E, APPROXIMATELY
208 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 122330Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SURROUNDING THE BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SSTS (29-30C). OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS LEADING TO CONVERGENCE
IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE INVEST REMAINS DUE TO ITS CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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JTWC drop this from their outlook and models are not too excited about it.