ATL: Invest 91L - Discussion

[jasons2k]

In the end, this will probably be a challenging system to forecast accurately. The models also show a significant rainfall gradient, so it could be a case of feast or famine for parts of Texas and Louisiana.

[Tireman4]

GFS IS SOOOO INCONSISTENT!!! IT LITERALLY SHOWS 10X MORE RAIN FOR TX THIS RUN! SMHHHH

Still very early in the game. Relax. Lol
..it will be more into view by Thursday-Friday

[stormreader]

GFS IS SOOOO INCONSISTENT!!! IT LITERALLY SHOWS 10X MORE RAIN FOR TX THIS RUN! SMHHHH

Still very early in the game. Relax. Lol
..it will be more into view by Thursday-Friday

And at this point, I would prefer simply to watch the system itself. What kind of organization (if any) it can attain before crossing the Yucatan. And what it actually looks like over land (ability to hold on to any structure) as it comes off the penninsula. Or perhaps, just a persistent but disorganized system looking for greener pastures in the GOM.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea are associated with a surface trough. This activity
is forecast to move westward to northwestward over Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, with no
development expected. Environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development if the system moves
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[GCANE]

Looking at Vis Satellite, nice blowup at sunset.
Seems like to me just before it got covered with cirrus, along 12N between 82W and 80W, some west winds kicked in.
After that, a couple towers fired off just to the east of that.

[aperson]

GFS IS SOOOO INCONSISTENT!!! IT LITERALLY SHOWS 10X MORE RAIN FOR TX THIS RUN! SMHHHH

All models are wrong but some models are useful. Focus on the useful parts, not the wrong parts. TX will see significant moisture, there's too much uncertainty to figure out exactly how it will set up this far out.

[Clearcloudz]

20 Knot wind sheer did its work today and so we start again tomorrow.

Resulted in the NHC dropping to 0 Percent next 48 hours.

[wxman57]

12Z EC ensembles down to only a 10% chance of development. GFS at 14%. Conditions across the Gulf don't look favorable for development (way too much shear). Hopefully, we get a few inches of rain out of it Sun/Mon.

40-50kts of shear = not good for development:

[Tireman4]

12Z EC ensembles down to only a 10% chance of development. GFS at 14%. Conditions across the Gulf don't look favorable for development (way too much shear). Hopefully, we get a few inches of rain out of it Sun/Mon.

40-50kts of shear = not good for development:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_4.png

But if Bud dies out quicker and ....well..lol

[stormreader]

T Storms with the invest appear to be dissipating at this time.

[CyclonicFury]

2 AM TWO remains 0%/20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
Sea are associated with a weak surface trough. This activity is
forecast to move westward to northwestward over Central America and
the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days with no
significant development. Environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development if the system moves
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Steve]

Lots of rain. We had late evening storms tonight which is not what’s been happening. GFS has the most rain along the TX Coast. CMC is SW LA. Icon is mostsly offshore and maybe coastal Mississippi.

[Clearcloudz]

Invest 91L making the transfer into Bay of Campeche



PWATS are gonna be over 2 inches This is abnormally high so heavy rain likely sunday-Wednesday in most of Texas and LA regions. Especially South east Texas as of right now. 12-20 inches is possible and is why needs to be watched closely. Conservative 6 inches will be common for most people.



18Z Nam Model run showing potential Beryl. I do believe the NAM could be overdoing the organization of this system 84 hours out but still something to watch on trends in the short term.

[wxman57]

Western Gulf still look rather hostile toward development. I'm thinking that Beryl will have to wait until August. Just some rain for TX/LA Sunday and Monday from this disturbance.

[northjaxpro]

Western Gulf still look rather hostile toward development. I'm thinking that Beryl will have to wait until August. Just some rain for TX/LA Sunday and Monday from this disturbance.

We may not have to wait very long at all for the next disturbance. Latest EURO runs jumping all on potential homebrew off the Florida East Coast by late Sunday into Monday.

[Clearcloudz]

Invest 91L

Deep convection firing up at the tip of the Yucatan.

[wxman57]

Western Gulf still look rather hostile toward development. I'm thinking that Beryl will have to wait until August. Just some rain for TX/LA Sunday and Monday from this disturbance.

We may not have to wait very long at all for the next disturbance. Latest EURO runs jumping all on potential homebrew off the Florida East Coast by late Sunday into Monday.

Yeah, right...

[Steve]

Western Gulf still look rather hostile toward development. I'm thinking that Beryl will have to wait until August. Just some rain for TX/LA Sunday and Monday from this disturbance.

We may not have to wait very long at all for the next disturbance. Latest EURO runs jumping all on potential homebrew off the Florida East Coast by late Sunday into Monday.

Yeah, right...

You might get some of the 12Z runs in earlier than we can get them. But check out the depictions of the upper pattern over the Southeast in the 5-8 day period. It's not just a phantom idea from the EC if the other models continue to show the strong ridging over the Mid-Atlantic.

[CyclonicFury]

Western Gulf still look rather hostile toward development. I'm thinking that Beryl will have to wait until August. Just some rain for TX/LA Sunday and Monday from this disturbance.

August? It's only June 13. Plenty of time to get Beryl before the end of July. I do think the MDR will probably be dead until August but it's definitely possible we get a weak spinup in the western Atlantic or GOM before then.

[Weather150]

Western Gulf still look rather hostile toward development. I'm thinking that Beryl will have to wait until August. Just some rain for TX/LA Sunday and Monday from this disturbance.

August? It's only June 13. Plenty of time to get Beryl before the end of July. I do think the MDR will probably be dead until August but it's definitely possible we get a weak spinup in the western Atlantic or GOM before then.

Agreed, July could offer chances for homegrown spin-ups off the SE coast potentially. Maybe something like a TS Claudette 2015.